基于全球均衡市场的中国人造板产业动态演化

发布时间：2018-03-17 02:10

本文选题：全球均衡市场　切入点：人造板产业　出处：《林业经济》2015年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从全球均衡市场角度,使用GFPM模型对2010~2030年中国人造板演化趋势进行动态模拟,通过引入GFPM约束的GDP增速、森林面积和森林蓄积量三个宏观经济外生变量,从产量、消费和进出口三个方面对中国人造板产业的发展趋势进行论述。研究表明:1中低速增长的"新常态"宏观环境将降低对传统GDP增长的追逐,人造板产业同样将出现增速放缓的走势;2就人造板产业结构来看,传统原材料和劳动力密集的胶合板比重将下降,资本和技术密集度相对较高的刨花板比重将得以提高;3中国人造板的传统比较优势可能会出现较大下滑,贸易顺差不断收紧,内需驱动将成为人造板产业发展的主要影响因素;4人造板产业尤其是胶合板产业这种对资源和劳动力的高消耗且低附加值的产业转型与升级变得尤为紧迫,加快低附加值部分的国际转移应成为产业战略调整的重要思路。
[Abstract]:From the global market equilibrium point of view, using the GFPM model to carry on the dynamic simulation of 2010~2030 Chinese artificial plate evolution trend, through the introduction of GFPM constraints GDP growth, forest area and forest reserves three macroeconomic exogenous variables, from the production, the development trend of the wood-based panel industry China consumption and import and export three aspects. Show that: 1 the slow growth of the new normal macroeconomic environment will reduce the traditional GDP growth of the chase, the wood-based panel industry will also be a slowdown in the trend; 2 wood-based panel industry structure, the traditional raw materials and labor intensive plywood proportion will decline, capital and technology intensive relatively high proportion of particleboard to improve the comparative advantage; 3 China traditional wood-based panels may appear larger decline in trade surplus continued to tighten, domestic demand will become the main influence the development of wood-based panel industry Factors; 4, the wood based panel industry, especially the plywood industry, has become particularly urgent for industrial transformation and upgrading of resources and labor force with high consumption and low added value. Accelerating international transfer of low value-added parts should become an important way of industrial strategy adjustment.

【作者单位】：南京林业大学经济管理学院;国家林业局林产品经济贸易研究中心;南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”(编号:14AJY014) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“IPCC气候框架下中国林产品国际贸易的碳流动问题研究”(编号:13YJAZH114) 江苏省高校“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人项目(编号:2012-12#)
【分类号】：F426.88

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