基于线性回归模型的我国电力市场输配电发展的研究与预测

发布时间：2018-03-17 02:30

本文选题：电力市场　切入点：输配电　出处：《河北工程大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力市场是电力商品交换关系发生的载体，同时也是关系到国家能源安全稳定的关键因素，是整个国民经济得以顺利发展的重要保障。电力市场的供需关系研究也成为了目前国家重点研究的方向和目标，输配电的价格以及输配电量的使用成为了关系民生的重大问题。本文对比分析了国内外电力市场领域的发展现状，，选取中国的电力传输和分配为重点研究对象，阐述了我国电力价格管理系统的开发过程，全面介绍了内部和外部因素的发展考虑价格。然后介绍了我国输配电价格的两种管制机制，强调了实施阶梯式定价的意义。其次阐述了输配电预测的相关理论基础和预测方法技术，对目前比较流行的时间序列、灰色模型预测法和神经网络预测技术三大预测技术进行系统的分析和研究。最后列出了电力负荷预测的具体步骤，提供了一个完整的电力负荷的预测流程。由于输配电的发展同国民经济重点行业有着某种线性关系，所以本文以线性回归模型为切入点，利用一元线性回归和多元线性回归对电力行业进行相关性研究。通过建立线性回归模型，对河北省某地区的用电量和使用情况进行研究和预测，为企业的经济抉择提供必要的参考依据。本文旨在通过实例研究来验证该方法在电力领域输配电预测方面的有效性和可行性。
[Abstract]:The electricity market is the carrier of the power commodity exchange relationship, and also the key factor related to the national energy security and stability. It is an important guarantee for the smooth development of the whole national economy, and the research on the supply and demand relationship of the electricity market has also become the direction and goal of the national key research at present, and the price of transmission and distribution and the use of the quantity of transmission and distribution have become the major problems related to the people's livelihood. This paper compares and analyzes the development situation of domestic and foreign electric power market, selects the electric power transmission and distribution in China as the key research object, and expounds the development process of the electric power price management system in our country. This paper introduces the development of internal and external factors considering price, and then introduces the two control mechanisms of transmission and distribution price in China. The significance of implementing step pricing is emphasized. Secondly, the related theoretical basis of transmission and distribution forecasting and forecasting methods and techniques are expounded, and the more popular time series are discussed. The grey model forecasting method and neural network forecasting technology are systematically analyzed and studied. Finally, the concrete steps of power load forecasting are listed, and a complete power load forecasting flow is provided. Since the development of transmission and distribution has some linear relationship with the key industries of the national economy, this paper takes the linear regression model as the breakthrough point. This paper studies the correlation of electric power industry with linear regression and multivariate linear regression. Through the establishment of linear regression model, the electricity consumption and usage in a certain area of Hebei Province are studied and forecasted. The purpose of this paper is to prove the validity and feasibility of this method in power transmission and distribution prediction through a case study.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F224

【参考文献】