基于Logistic模型的煤电产业共生系统稳定性分析

发布时间：2018-04-01 21:15

本文选题：Logistic模型　切入点：煤电产业共生系统　出处：《生态学报》2015年23期

【摘要】：煤电产业共生系统中煤炭企业与电力企业之间的关系与生物种群中物种之间的互利共生关系存在一定的相似性,煤电产业共生系统要实现自身的完善与稳定发展,其内部互利共生关系的企业间必须达到利益上的均衡。借鉴自然界生物种群竞争与合作的共生演化理论与思想,用企业产值来反映煤电产业共生系统演化过程的外生变量,建立了企业产值增长的竞争与合作型Logistic模型。在厘清稳定点的条件之后,通过协同演化博弈分析对煤电产业共生系统演化过程进行了模拟。研究结果表明:(1)煤电产业共生系统的稳定不仅取决于煤电企业进入对方造成的分散力与集聚力之间的较量,还取决于各自在系统内外所取得效益的比较;不仅取决于核心企业的决定性作用,还很大程度上取决于相关企业为进入系统所做出的努力和采取的措施,同时,还与企业的初始产值、竞争力、合作性以及产值增长率等有着密切的关系;(2)煤电产业共生系统要实现长期可持续发展,必须保持产业共生系统互补的共生系统结构以及较高的生产活力。
[Abstract]:There is a certain similarity between the relationship between coal enterprises and electric power enterprises and the mutually-beneficial symbiotic relationship between species in biological population in coal and electricity industry symbiosis system, so the coal power industry symbiotic system should realize its own perfection and steady development.The internal mutually beneficial symbiotic relationship between the enterprises must achieve a balance of interests.Based on the theory and thought of symbiotic evolution of competition and cooperation of biological population in nature and using the output value of enterprises to reflect the exogenous variables in the evolution process of symbiotic system of coal and electricity industry, a competitive and cooperative Logistic model for the growth of enterprise output value is established.After clarifying the condition of stability point, the evolution process of coal power industry symbiotic system is simulated by cooperative evolution game analysis.The results show that the stability of coal and electricity industry symbiotic system depends not only on the competition between the dispersion and agglomeration caused by the coal and electricity enterprises entering into the other side, but also on the comparison of the benefits obtained within and outside the system.It depends not only on the decisive role of the core enterprises, but also on the efforts and measures taken by the relevant enterprises to enter the system, at the same time, on the initial output value and competitiveness of the enterprises.
【作者单位】：山东工商学院山东能源经济协同创新中心;山东师范大学人口资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172086) 山东能源经济协同创新中心资助项目(2014SDXT003) 教育部人文社科规划资助项目(14YJA630055)
【分类号】：F426.61

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