我国制造业上市公司财务预警模型实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 19:06

本文选题：财务预警模型 + Logistic回归分析　；参考：《复旦大学》2008年硕士论文

【摘要】： 公司财务危机的预测研究在国内外都受到高度关注,它不但具有较高的学术价值,而且具有巨大的应用价值。随着我国资本市场的快速发展,上市公司的各种问题也逐渐暴露出来,上市公司出现财务危机的案例也越来越多。在这种背景下,财务危机已成为企业相关利益者需预测并应对的重要风险之一,建立一个反应灵敏的财务危机预警机制,对于经营者防范财务危机,投资者和债权人保护自身利益,证券监管部门监控上市公司质量和股票市场风险,都具有重要的现实意义。本文以深沪两市2004-2007年首次因财务原因被ST的上市公司及与其配对的健康公司为样本,选取他们的24项财务指标,构建财务预警模型,并利用此模型对2008年即将被ST的昌河股份(600372)进行案例分析,检验预警模型的有效性。首先,阐述进行财务预警模型实证研究的背景和意义,通过文献研究,比较国内外研究成果,提出本文的研究思路和方法。其次,通过文献研究,挑选出在以前的研究中被证明预测有效的24项财务指标为研究起点,运用SPSS软件对样本公司进行Logistic回归分析,构建财务预警模型,并通过检验确定预警模型的预测准确率和错判率。然后,以昌河股份为例,利用财务预警模型对其进行预测分析,并深入研究该公司的背景及财务危机形成原因。最后,总结本文的贡献与不足。
[Abstract]:The prediction of corporate financial crisis is highly concerned at home and abroad. It not only has high academic value, but also has great application value.With the rapid development of China's capital market, various problems of listed companies are gradually exposed, and there are more and more cases of financial crisis of listed companies.In this context, financial crisis has become one of the important risks to be predicted and dealt with by the relevant stakeholders of the enterprise. The establishment of a responsive financial crisis warning mechanism will prevent financial crisis for operators.It is of great practical significance for investors and creditors to protect their own interests and to monitor the quality of listed companies and stock market risks.Based on the sample of listed companies with St for financial reasons and their matched health companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets from 2004 to 2007, this paper selects their 24 financial indicators to build a financial early warning model.The model is used to analyze the case of Changhe stock in 2008, and to test the effectiveness of the early warning model.Firstly, the background and significance of empirical research on financial early-warning model are expounded. Through literature research, the research results at home and abroad are compared, and the research ideas and methods of this paper are put forward.Secondly, through literature research, 24 financial indexes proved to be effective in the previous research are selected as the starting point of the study. The Logistic regression analysis of the sample company is carried out by using SPSS software, and the financial early warning model is constructed.And through the test to determine the prediction accuracy and error rate of the early warning model.Then, taking Changhe shares as an example, the financial early-warning model is used to forecast and analyze it, and the background of the company and the causes of the financial crisis are deeply studied.Finally, the contributions and shortcomings of this paper are summarized.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F406.7;F224

【引证文献】