基于logistic模型的制药行业上市公司财务预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 19:09

本文选题：制药行业 + 上市公司　；参考：《南华大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着世界范围内，经济融合的进一步加快，企业在经济发展过程中面临着越来越大的竞争压力，随时都有发生破产，倒闭的风险。建立合理有效的财务预警模型有助于企业及时发现经营过程中出现的问题，加强经营管理，提高获利能力。随着我国医疗体制改革的进一步推进，制药行业在面临着空前发展机遇的同时，也面临着巨大的风险。国外企业挤压市场，制药成本上升，药品生产规则的严格都在大环境中给制药企业的发展带来了压力。同时制药行业本身就是高风险，高投入，高回报的行业，因此，针对制药行业建立财务预警模型，及时发现经营中的风险，提高其获利能力，是很必要的。本文从制药行业本身的特点出发利用主观逻辑与客观实践相结合，实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法，利用spss19.0软件构建了针对于制药行业上市公司的财务预警模型。本文一共分为六个部分。第一部分,主要介绍了文章的研究背景，写作意义，对于前人的研究成果进行评述，，明确了文章的思路和创新之处。第二部分,对财务预警的基础理论部分进行了介绍。第三部分，对我国制药行业上市公司的财务风险进行分析，明确了我国制药行业的自身特点和其特殊的财务风险。第四部分，选取了制药行业深圳，上海两大证交所的228个上市公司作为研究样本，分别从偿债能力，营运能力，盈利能力，成长能力，现金流量和行业指标6个方面，选取了24个指标，通过非参数检验的方法剔除了不相关指标建立了针对制药行业上市公司的财务预警指标体系。第五部分，通过因子分析的方法对剩余指标提取主成分，并构建了属于制药行业上市公司的财务预警模型。第六部分，对文章进行归纳和总结，对不足之处提出展望和建议。研究结果表明，本文所建立的制药行业上市公司（t-1）年和（t-2）年的财务预警模型有着较高的预测水平，能很好的预测企业危机的发生，同时随着危机年份的接近，模型的预测水平提高了。在剔除了特殊行业指标后模型预测准确度要低于有特殊行业指标的模型所预测的准确度。这说明特殊的行业指标的加入有利于制药行业上市公司更好的进行财务危机预测。
[Abstract]:With the further acceleration of economic integration in the world, enterprises are facing more and more competitive pressure in the process of economic development, and there is the risk of bankruptcy and bankruptcy at any time.The establishment of a reasonable and effective financial early warning model is helpful for the enterprises to find out the problems in the process of operation, strengthen the management, and improve the profitability.With the further development of China's medical system reform, pharmaceutical industry is facing unprecedented development opportunities, but also facing huge risks.Foreign enterprises squeeze the market, pharmaceutical costs rise, and the strict rules of drug production bring pressure to the development of pharmaceutical enterprises.At the same time, the pharmaceutical industry itself is a high-risk, high-investment, high-return industry, so it is necessary to establish a financial early-warning model for the pharmaceutical industry, to timely discover the risks in operation and improve its profitability.Based on the characteristics of pharmaceutical industry, this paper uses the combination of subjective logic and objective practice, the combination of empirical analysis and normative analysis, and the use of spss19.0 software to build a financial early warning model for listed companies in pharmaceutical industry.This paper is divided into six parts.The first part mainly introduces the research background and writing significance of the article, reviews the previous research results, and clarifies the ideas and innovations of the article.The second part introduces the basic theory of financial early warning.In the third part, the author analyzes the financial risk of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry of our country, and clarifies the characteristics and special financial risks of the pharmaceutical industry in our country.In the fourth part, 228 listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai are selected as the research samples, from six aspects of solvency, operating ability, profitability, growth ability, cash flow and industry indicators, respectively.In this paper, 24 indexes are selected, and the financial early warning index system for listed companies in pharmaceutical industry is established by eliminating irrelevant indexes by non-parametric test.In the fifth part, the principal components of the remaining indexes are extracted by factor analysis, and the financial early-warning model of listed companies in pharmaceutical industry is constructed.The sixth part sums up and summarizes the article, and puts forward the prospect and suggestion to the deficiency.The results show that the financial early-warning models of listed pharmaceutical companies in this paper have a high level of prediction, and can well predict the occurrence of corporate crisis, and with the approaching of the crisis year, the financial early-warning model of the pharmaceutical industry listed companies in this paper has a high level of prediction, at the same time, with the approaching of the crisis year,The prediction level of the model has improved.The prediction accuracy of the model is lower than that of the model with special industry index.This shows that the addition of specific industry indicators is conducive to better financial crisis prediction for listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.72;F406.7;F224

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