基于国际原油价格波动的中石化财务风险的评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 14:31

本文选题：中石化 + 国际油价波动　；参考：《西南石油大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：中石化的主要业务集中于炼油和化工板块,而国际油价的波动对炼油和化工板块影响最大。在国际油价持续上涨的环境下,中石化是国内三大石油“巨头”中受影响最大的公司。国际油价波动对中石化财务产生影响的原因主要表现为以下两个方面：一是国内油价与国际油价接轨,导致国际油价上涨时,国内油价也必须跟随着国际油价的脚步同时上涨；二是国家对成品油价格从紧控制,且中石化身为国企需要承担一定的社会责任,使得中石化不能随意调高成品油价格,这就导致了中石化炼化板块的巨额亏损,进而对中石化的财务产生影响。因此,本论文就基于国际油价波动对中石化财务风险进行评价研究。本文首先详细阐述了风险、财务风险的相关概念,其次深刻分析了中石化的业务特点、财务特点,并从中石化的生存能力、资产管理能力：盈利能力以及发展能力角度出发,选取合适的财务风险评价指标体系,采用中石化在2007～2012年间公布的财务报表数据,结合模糊综合评价模型对中石化在2007～2012年的财务风险进行综合评价,并依据综合评价的结果提出相应的财务风险管理策略。本论文的基本结论如下： (1)从财务风险总体上看,2007～2012年中石化的财务风险大小主要集中在0.2～0.8之间,风险在0.3～0.6之间的有四年,占总体的67%,说明中石化在2007～2012年之间的财务风险集中度较高； (2)从风险值的大小上看,财务风险最大的是2008年,最小的为2010年,这说明中石化的财务风险受到国际油价波动的影响,油价较低的年份的财务风险较小； (3)针对中石化财务风险状况,提出可行的财务风险管理的对策与建议。
[Abstract]:Sinopec's main business is concentrated in refining and chemical sectors, while fluctuations in international oil prices have the greatest impact on refining and chemical sectors. Sinopec is the most affected of the three major oil giants in the environment of rising international oil prices. The main reasons for the impact of international oil price fluctuation on Sinopec's finance are as follows: first, when the domestic oil price is in line with the international oil price, when the international oil price rises, the domestic oil price must also follow the pace of the international oil price rising at the same time; Second, the state has tightened its control over the price of refined oil products, and Sinopec, as a state-owned enterprise, needs to assume certain social responsibilities. As a result, Sinopec cannot arbitrarily raise the price of refined oil products. This has led to a huge loss in Sinopec's refining and chemical plate. And then on the financial impact of Sinopec. Therefore, this paper evaluates Sinopec's financial risk based on the fluctuation of international oil price. In this paper, the related concepts of risk and financial risk are expounded in detail, and then the business and financial characteristics of Sinopec are deeply analyzed, and from the point of view of Sinopec's survivability, asset management ability, profitability and development ability, Selecting the appropriate financial risk evaluation index system, adopting the financial statement data published by Sinopec in 2007 / 2012, and combining with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the financial risk of Sinopec from 2007 to 2012. According to the results of comprehensive evaluation, the corresponding financial risk management strategy is put forward. The basic conclusions of this thesis are as follows: 1) the financial risk of Sinopec from 2007 to 2012 is mainly between 0.2 and 0.8, and the risk is between 0.3 and 0.6 for four years, accounting for 67 percent of the total, indicating that Sinopec has a high concentration of financial risk between 2007 and 2012; (2) from the value of risk, the financial risk is the biggest in 2008 and the smallest in 2010, which indicates that the financial risk of Sinopec is affected by the fluctuation of international oil price, and the financial risk in the year of low oil price is smaller; 3) according to the situation of Sinopec's financial risk, the feasible countermeasures and suggestions of financial risk management are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F764.1;F426.722;F406.7

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