中国ICT产品的出口增长是否实现了以质取胜——基于三元分解及引力模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 04:33

本文选题：出口增长 + 三元分解　；参考：《中国工业经济》2015年01期

【摘要】：随着中国ICT产品出口比重的不断增多,中国ICT产品的价格也逐步与国际接轨。因此,本文利用2002—2013年中国与52个国家和地区SITC五分位贸易数据来分析中国ICT产品出口增长的拉动因素。本文利用三元边际方法将中国ICT产品出口分解为扩展边际、数量边际和价格边际,发现2008年金融危机后数量边际和价格边际都是拉动中国贸易增长的主要力量,价格边际和数量边际的年复合增速分别为1.93%和11.75%,中国ICT产品的出口增长正在从低质量低价格的"数量拉动"向高质量高价格的"价格拉动"转变,数量增长和价格提升并重。不同于中国制造业整体出口价格低于世界平均水平的情况,中国ICT产品的价格指数与世界平均水平一致,部分年份甚至高于世界平均水平。从中国出口产品在52个进口国市场的核密度图演进来看,各进口国价格边际的差距在缩小,并在2009年后形成一个价格指数为世界平均水平1.25倍的第二波峰。这说明中国ICT产品在进口国市场的定价更加国际化,部分产品定位在高端市场。本文通过改进引力模型进一步解释了中国ICT产品出口三个维度的影响因素,发现价格边际与贸易国的人均GDP成正比,与两国距离无关;而进口国的法律保护和产品在进口国的市场份额会促进价格边际,出口国的技术进步则会降低价格边际。ICT产品"轻"、生命周期短、高技术密集度等特征可以很好地解释上述结论。
[Abstract]:With the increasing proportion of China's ICT exports, the price of Chinese ICT products is also gradually in line with international standards. Therefore, this paper uses the SITC five-position trade data of China and 52 countries and regions from 2002 to 2013 to analyze the factors contributing to the export growth of China's ICT products. This paper uses the ternary marginal method to decompose China's ICT product export into extended marginal, quantitative marginal and price marginal. It is found that the quantitative marginal and the price marginal are the main forces driving China's trade growth after the financial crisis of 2008. The annual compound growth rates of price margin and quantity marginal are 1.93% and 11.75% respectively. The export growth of China's ICT products is changing from "quantity pull" of low quality and low price to "price pull" of high quality and high price. Unlike the fact that the overall export price of China's manufacturing industry is below the world average, the price index of China's ICT products is in line with the world average, and is even higher than the world average in some years. Judging from the evolution of the nuclear density map of China's exports in 52 importing markets, the marginal price gap among the importing countries is narrowing, and a second peak of 1.25 times the world average price index has been formed since 2009. This indicates that the pricing of Chinese ICT products in importing markets is more international, with some products positioned at the top end of the market. This paper further explains the influence factors of the three dimensions of China's ICT product export through the improved gravitation model. It is found that the marginal price is proportional to the per capita GDP of the trading countries and has nothing to do with the distance between the two countries. The legal protection of the importing country and the market share of the product in the importing country will promote the margin of price, while the technological progress of the exporting country will reduce the margin of the price. The product of ICT will be "light" and will have a short life cycle. The characteristics of high technology intensity can explain the above conclusion well.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链体系重构对新兴经济体工资收入的影响”(批准号71303036) 中央财政专项资金支持地方高校发展“优秀科研创新人才”项目“全球经济调整与价值链升级研究”(批准号DUFE2014R08)
【分类号】：F426.6;F752.62

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