基于系统动力学的以电代煤减排效益分析

发布时间：2018-05-08 21:34

本文选题：以电代煤 + 系统动力学　；参考：《中南大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年04期

【摘要】：从系统层面构建以电代煤减排效益分析模型,为验证以电代煤实施的减排效果提供理论依据。该模型以Vensim为建模平台,以能源消费、经济发展和环境减排之间的关系为纽带,建立以电代煤减排效益模型图,在控制煤炭消费总量一定的情况下计算以电代煤的实施减排效果,为制定以电代煤相关政策提供量化依据。研究结果表明:实施以电代煤确实可以降低工业二氧化硫排放量;通过调整电煤消费比重、电力消费比重、火电比重、火电煤耗率都可以有效减少工业二氧化硫排放量;当电煤消费提高20%时,可以减少工业二氧化硫排放11%;当电力消费比重提高20%时,可以减少工业二氧化硫排放18%;在一定范围内,降低火电煤耗率也有助于减少工业二氧化硫的排放。
[Abstract]:In order to provide a theoretical basis for verifying the emission reduction effect of electric coal substitute coal, the model of emission reduction efficiency analysis is constructed from the system level. The model is based on Vensim and the relationship among energy consumption, economic development and environmental emission reduction. Under the condition of controlling the total amount of coal consumption, the emission-reduction effect of electric substitute coal is calculated, which provides the quantitative basis for making the relevant policy of coal replacement by electricity. The research results show that the industrial sulfur dioxide emission can be reduced by replacing coal with electricity, and by adjusting the consumption proportion of coal, electricity consumption, thermal power consumption and thermal power consumption, the industrial sulfur dioxide emission can be effectively reduced. When the consumption of thermal coal increases by 20 percent, the industrial sulfur dioxide emissions can be reduced by 11 percent; when the proportion of electricity consumption increases by 20 percent, the industrial sulfur dioxide emissions can be reduced by 18 percent; within a certain range, Reducing coal consumption also helps reduce industrial sulfur dioxide emissions.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171079,71271081)~~
【分类号】：X322;F426.61

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