我国天然气价格改革及其影响的研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 02:26

本文选题：天然气 + 价格改革　；参考：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国正处于加速推进工业化和城市化的发展阶段,随之产生的刚性能源需求导致了温室气体排放、雾霾等一系列日益严峻的环境问题,在国际上面临着巨大的减排压力,在国内面临着大气污染防治的难题。另一方面,能源需求量的急剧增加使得我国的能源安全受到了前所未有的威胁：石油资源的对外依存度上升,煤炭资源的开采利用受到环境压力的限制,而许多新能源的推广又受制于现有技术水平,只能作为常规能源的补充。因此在经济寻求低碳发展之路和能源环境大转型的敏感时期,天然气作为一种高效、清洁、优质的能源已受到越来越多的重视。特别是美国页岩气的开发和大规模应用,更是在全球引发了一场“气化革命”,这预示着天然气资源将迎来发展的黄金时期。目前,我国的天然气资源在一次能源结构中所占比例仅5%左右,且存在价格垄断、过度价格管制、价格梯度倒置、与可替代能源比价不合理、各产业链价格结构不合理等一系列问题。因此,为保障天然气长期供应,促进天然气工业发展和市场竞争,必须对天然气价格的形成机制进行全面的改革。天然气价格改革是保证我国天然气供求平衡、促进天然气工业升级发展、保障我国能源安全和实现低碳经济转型发展的必由之路。本文首先全面分析了我国天然气资源的开发和利用现状,包括天然气资源的生产、消费、进口现状和发展趋势,展望了天然气的发展前景,并在此基础上梳理了近年来关于天然气资源开发利用的政策规划。进而借鉴国外天然气价格改革的经验,从纵向和横向两方面深入剖析我国天然气价格改革的历程,其中重点分析了两广试点改革和试点改革全国推广的主要内容与影响。在理清我国天然气价格改革发展历程的基础上,本文通过实证分析发现从2005年12月开始进行的天然气价格改革在一定程度上强化了国内工业天然气价格对国际原油价格的长期反应,切实推进了油气价格联动机制的建立。在此基础上,进一步考虑产业关联和成本传导效应,利用投入产出模型分析天然气价格调整的影响,发现城镇居民受天然气价格上涨影响最大,其次是工业生产；天然气价格上涨还会带动各种价格指数不同程度的上涨,但整体影响较小。最后,在以替代能源价格和国际天然气价格作为参考价格的两种情形下,本文利用价差法分部门估算了2010-2012年我国天然气的补贴规模。在实证分析的基础上,本文提出以下政策建议：一是要做好我国天然气战略部署和需求预测工作；二是要进一步完善现行的以市场净回值法为基础、与替代能源相挂钩的定价机制,并从产业链的角度有针对性地实行各个环节的价格改革,促进上中下游价格的市场化和一体化；三是为保障居民用气的基本需求,在改革过程中要设计合理的补贴等配套措施和财税政策；四是进一步完善相关的法规和制度,如健全与天然气开发利用相关的法律法规体系和完善价格听证制度；五是逐步推进我国整个能源价格体系的市场化进程。
[Abstract]:China is in the stage of accelerating the development of industrialization and urbanization. The resulting rigid energy demand leads to greenhouse gas emissions, fog and haze and a series of increasingly severe environmental problems, facing enormous pressure of emission reduction in the world, facing the problem of air pollution prevention and treatment in China. On the other hand, the sharp energy demand is sharp. The increase of the energy security of China has been an unprecedented threat: the increase of foreign dependence on oil resources, the exploitation and utilization of coal resources is restricted by environmental pressure, and the promotion of many new energy sources is subject to the existing technical level, only as a supplement to conventional energy. Therefore, the road and energy of low-carbon development are sought in the economy. In the sensitive period of the great transformation of the environment, natural gas has been paid more and more attention as a kind of efficient, clean and high quality energy. In particular, the development and large-scale application of shale gas in the United States has caused a "gasification revolution" in the world, which indicates that natural gas resources will usher in the golden period of development. The proportion of the source in the primary energy structure is only about 5%, and there is a series of problems, such as price monopoly, excessive price control, reverse price gradient, unreasonable price ratio and unreasonable price structure of each industry chain. Therefore, natural gas price must be guaranteed to protect natural gas supply and promote the development of natural gas industry and market competition. The natural gas price reform is the only way to ensure the balance of natural gas supply and demand, promote the upgrading and development of natural gas industry, guarantee the energy security of our country and realize the transformation and development of low carbon economy.
This paper first comprehensively analyzes the development and utilization of natural gas resources in China, including the production, consumption, import status and development trend of natural gas resources, and looks forward to the development prospect of natural gas. On this basis, the policy planning of natural gas resources development and utilization in recent years is combed, and then the foreign natural gas price reform is used for reference. From the two aspects of the vertical and horizontal aspects, this paper analyzes the course of China's natural gas price reform, focusing on the main content and influence of the pilot reform and the pilot reform in China. On the basis of clarifying the course of the reform and development of China's natural gas price, this paper has found that it began in December 2005. The price reform of natural gas has strengthened the long-term reaction of domestic industrial natural gas price to the international crude oil price to a certain extent and promoted the establishment of the linkage mechanism of oil and gas prices. On this basis, the effect of industrial association and cost transmission is further considered, and the impact of the price adjustment of natural gas is analyzed by input-output model, and the cities and towns are found. The population is most affected by the rising price of natural gas, followed by industrial production; the rising price of natural gas will also lead to the rise of various price indices, but the overall impact is small. Finally, under the two feelings of alternative energy prices and international natural gas prices as reference prices, this paper uses the price difference method to estimate 2010-2 sectors. The size of China's natural gas subsidies for the past 012 years.
On the basis of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, we should do a good job in China's natural gas strategic deployment and demand forecasting; two, we should further improve the current market net return method as the basis, the pricing mechanism linked to the alternative energy, and carry out the price of each link from the angle of the industrial chain. Reform to promote the market and integration of prices in the upper and lower reaches of the middle and lower reaches; three to ensure the basic demand for gas for the residents, to design reasonable subsidies and other supporting measures and fiscal and tax policies in the process of reform; and the four is to further improve the relevant regulations and systems, such as perfecting the legal system and improving the price related to the exploitation and utilization of natural gas. The five is to gradually promote the marketization of the whole energy price system in China.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22

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