电动汽车行业：电动汽车需求爆发对动力锂电池产业链投资机会研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 06:02

本文选题：需求爆发 + 政策持续性　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：主要内容本文首先分析了电动车代替燃油车的国际化大背景,继而深入电动车行业,运用AHP模型分析了影响电动汽车需求的各方面因素,得出结论：电动汽车的价格(考虑国家补贴)是消费者最为关注的核心因素。下文先通过对比电动汽车和传统汽车的价格和使用成本来分析电动汽车的成本优势；然后通过对比新能源汽车行业和光伏发电行业,进一步比较政府在新能源行业的节能减排收益,探讨政府对电动汽车补贴的持续性问题。第二部分最后,文章分析了我国电动汽车行业的发展现状,指出现阶段政策利好,并分析我国电动汽车企业的比较优势和投资价值。第三部分,文章在电动汽车需求爆发的背景下分析比较了电动汽车产业链各个环节的投资机会,并指出动力锂电池作为电动汽车上游的关键环节具有最大的未来投资价值。第四部分,文章深入分析了动力锂电池产业链从上游锂矿资源到下游动力锂电池之间的所有环节以及各环节的市场现状和未来投资机会,得出结论：正极材料和电解液两大电池原料领域具备最大的增长空间。其中,掌握磷酸铁锂核心技术的杉杉股份和电解液龙头新宙邦最具备股票投资价值。文章的最后,指出了两点投资风险：首先,大众对纯电动车的实际接受程度尚有不确定性；其次,政府补贴政策的持续时间具有不确定性。创新之处首先,之前的研究报告很少系统的分析影响电动车需求的各个因素以及他们之间的权重关系。本文采用层次分析模型(AHP)对各因素进行打分对比,并得出有价值的实证结论。其次,之前的报告多侧重分析政策如何利好,而本文通过对比同为新能源概念的光伏发电行业,探讨了国家补贴政策的持续性问题。
[Abstract]:Main content This paper first analyzes the background of the internationalization of electric vehicles instead of fuel vehicles, then goes deep into the electric vehicle industry, and analyzes the various factors that affect the demand of electric vehicles by using AHP model. The conclusion is that the price of electric vehicles (considering state subsidies) is the core factor that consumers are most concerned about. The following analyses the cost advantages of electric vehicles by comparing the prices and use costs of electric vehicles with those of traditional vehicles; then, by comparing the new energy automobile industry with the photovoltaic power generation industry, This paper compares the benefits of energy saving and emission reduction in the new energy industry, and discusses the sustainability of government subsidies for electric vehicles. At the end of the second part, the article analyzes the current situation of the electric vehicle industry in China, points out that the policy is favorable at the present stage, and analyzes the comparative advantages and investment value of the electric vehicle enterprises in our country. In the third part, the paper analyzes and compares the investment opportunities of each link in the electric vehicle industry chain under the background of the electric vehicle demand outburst, and points out that the power lithium battery as the key link of the electric vehicle upstream has the greatest future investment value. In the fourth part, the paper deeply analyzes all links between upstream lithium mineral resource and downstream power lithium battery industry chain, as well as market status and future investment opportunities of each link. Conclusion: cathode material and electrolyte have the largest growth space in the field of battery raw materials. Among them, master iron lithium phosphate core technology of Chinese fir shares and electrolyte bibcock Zeus the most valuable stock investment. At the end of the paper, two investment risks are pointed out: first, the actual acceptance of pure electric vehicles by Volkswagen is uncertain; secondly, the duration of government subsidy policy is uncertain. Innovation First, previous studies have rarely systematically analyzed the factors that affect the demand for electric vehicles and their weight relationships. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model is used to compare the factors, and a valuable empirical conclusion is drawn. Secondly, the previous report focuses on how to improve the policy, and this paper discusses the sustainability of the national subsidy policy by comparing the photovoltaic power generation industry, which is the same concept of new energy.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471

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