福建电力消费与经济发展的关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 19:51

本文选题：电力需求 + 经济增长　；参考：《华侨大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电力工业是一个国家经济发展的基础，随着经济的增长，对电力的消费需求也会随之增加，而电力的使用提高了劳动生产力，从而促进了经济增长。随着福建经济增长的进一步加快，工业化和城镇化速度加快，在它的拉动下，电力需求将保持快速增长，但福建电力发展中存在一些困难，比如电煤供需矛盾较为突出，短期难以解决，跨区输电设施建设相对滞后，在这些因素的影响下，电力供需发展不均衡，并已成为制约经济增长的瓶颈。研究电力消费与经济增长二者之间的因果关系及其相互影响的强弱程度，对经济、电力行业的协调发展及相关政策的制定具有重要参考价值。本论文结合福建省经济发展现状、电力发展现状，从理论方法、实证分析、建议对策三个方面对福建省电力工业和经济发展之间的关系进行了深入研究。首先，先选取单因素模型，利用格兰杰因果关系检验、协整理论、误差修正模型等在总量和各产业上对1988—2012年间福建省电力与经济增长的关系进行系统分析；然后采用多因素模型，引入人口、产业结构变化、电力价格等主要因素，对电力和经济的关系进行多变量实证分析。最后，得出福建省电力与经济因果关系的方向、影响程度的大小以及长、短期关系。针对福建省电力发展中存在的问题，本文提出有效的对策建议。研究表明，从长期来看，福建省的经济增长与电力消费之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。电力消费与经济增长之间存在协整关系；从短时期内看，存在从电力消费到经济增长单向格兰杰原因，但不存在从经济增长到电力消费的格兰杰原因。电力是国民经济发展的重要推动力，电力供应充足，对经济发展有重要的促进作用，反之，则有制约作用。应当加强电力工业设施的建设，提高管理水平，电力行业也应主动适应我国经济转型的新要求，加快结构调整和转型升级，这一切的目的都是为了确保电力的充足供应，为经济的持续发展提供重要保障。本文通过对福建电力与经济关系的多因素进行分析，得出影响电力消费的主要因素是产业结构和人民生活水平。居民收入增加，，消费水平提高，用电量就会随之提高，因此要大力提倡人人节约用电，培养良好的节约用电习惯，建设节约型社会。第二产业经济与电力的关系较为紧密，改革开放以来，福建省产业结构及层次比周边沿海省份低且不合理，因此大力促进产业结构合理化、高级化有利于经济又好又快发展，同时也有利于促进电力的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the foundation of a country's economic development. With the economic growth, the consumption demand for electricity will also increase, and the use of electric power will improve the labor productivity and thus promote the economic growth. With the further acceleration of Fujian's economic growth and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the demand for electricity will maintain a rapid growth, but there are some difficulties in Fujian's electric power development, for example, the contradiction between the supply and demand of thermal coal is more prominent. It is difficult to solve in the short term, and the construction of transregional transmission facilities is relatively lagging behind. Under the influence of these factors, the development of power supply and demand is not balanced, and has become the bottleneck restricting economic growth. The study of the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth and the degree of their mutual influence have important reference value for the coordinated development of economy and electric power industry and the formulation of relevant policies. In this paper, the relationship between Fujian electric power industry and economic development is studied from three aspects: theory and method, empirical analysis and suggestions on the current situation of economic development and economic development in Fujian Province. Firstly, the single factor model is selected, and the relationship between electricity and economic growth in Fujian Province from 1988 to 2012 is analyzed systematically by Granger causality test, cointegration theory and error correction model. Then the multivariate empirical analysis of the relationship between electricity and economy is carried out by introducing the main factors such as population, industrial structure change, electricity price and so on. Finally, the direction of causality between electricity and economy in Fujian Province, the magnitude of influence degree and the relationship between long and short term are obtained. Aiming at the problems existing in the electric power development of Fujian Province, this paper puts forward some effective countermeasures and suggestions. The results show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption in Fujian Province in the long run. There is a cointegration relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, and in a short period of time, there are Granger reasons from electricity consumption to economic growth, but there is no Granger reason from economic growth to electricity consumption. Electric power is an important driving force for the development of national economy. The power supply is sufficient and plays an important role in promoting economic development. The construction of power industry facilities should be strengthened and the management level should be raised. The electric power industry should also take the initiative to adapt to the new requirements of China's economic transformation and speed up the structural adjustment and upgrading, all of which are aimed at ensuring an adequate supply of electricity. To provide the important safeguard for the sustainable development of the economy. Based on the analysis of the relationship between Fujian electric power and economy, this paper concludes that the main factors influencing the power consumption are the industrial structure and the living standards of the people. With the increase of residents' income and the improvement of consumption level, the consumption of electricity will increase. Therefore, it is necessary to strongly advocate everyone to save electricity, cultivate a good habit of saving electricity, and build a conservation-oriented society. Since the reform and opening up, the industrial structure and level of Fujian Province is lower and unreasonable than that of the surrounding coastal provinces. Therefore, we should vigorously promote the rationalization of the industrial structure, which is conducive to the sound and rapid development of the economy. At the same time, it is beneficial to promote the sustainable development of electric power.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F124

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