我国矿产资源可持续发展水平分析与预测——基于层次分析法的探索

发布时间：2018-06-03 20:24

本文选题：生态建设 + 矿产资源　；参考：《西南民族大学学报(人文社科版)》2015年07期

【摘要】：矿产资源是人类生存与发展的重要物质基础,其可持续发展已成为国内国际研究的热点问题。本文基于牛文元五大支持系统,先以层次分析法为基础,对我国矿产资源可持续发展水平综合值展开评估,然后辅以logistic模型回归进行预测,并结合主成分分析法实现对指标降维以达到用较少变量解释大部分变异的作用。研究结果表明:总体来说,我国矿产资源可持续发展水平处于弱可持续发展阶段并呈现逐年缓慢上涨的趋势;对于综合水平的预测表明,2017年后矿产资源可持续发展水平可达到强可持续发展阶段的中期;将全部指标进行降维后,得到三个主成分,可使政府的宏观政策调控更具可操作性。
[Abstract]:Mineral resources is an important material basis for human survival and development, and its sustainable development has become a hot issue in domestic and international research. Based on the five support systems of Niu Wenyuan, this paper evaluates the comprehensive value of the sustainable development level of mineral resources in China based on the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then forecasts it with the regression of logistic model. Combined with principal component analysis (PCA), the dimensionality of the index was reduced to explain most of the variations with fewer variables. The results show that: generally speaking, the level of sustainable development of mineral resources in China is in the stage of weak sustainable development and shows a slow rising trend year by year; The prediction of comprehensive level shows that the level of sustainable development of mineral resources can reach the middle stage of strong sustainable development after 2017, and the three principal components can be obtained after reducing the dimensions of all the indicators, which can make the macro-control of government policy more operable.
【作者单位】：成都理工商学院;成都理工大学区域可持续发展研究所;中国人民大学经济学院;成都理工大学商学院;
【基金】：四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地系统科学与企业发展研究中心重点课题“企业环境成本核算与补偿机制研究”(Xq14b07) 资源型城市发展研究中心重点项目“资源城市生态补偿机制研究”(ZYZX-ZD-1301)、“区域可持续发展四川省青年科技创新研究团队”(2014TD0024)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F426.1

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