调味品行业研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 21:57

本文选题：调味品行业 + 行业增长率分解　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：主要内容本文主要以中国继续推进城镇化和推行人均收入倍增计划两大趋势作为逻辑起点,阐述了推动调味品行业增长的因素以及行业未来的集中趋势,并得出了调味品行业存在消费升级所带来的投资机会,然后从战略、核心竞争力,财务三方面综合分析和对比该行业内的几家上市公司并总结出行业龙头海天味业所拥有的核心竞争优势,最后揭示投资该公司存在的一些风险点。主要内容首先本文对食品饮料行业进行细分成7个子行业,并且从盈利性、成长性、稳定性、是否拥有心智资源和投资标的5个维度对细分行业进行对比分析,确立食品饮料细分子行业的投资价值；然后再将调味品行业进行细分,并从增长率、毛利率、流动资产周转速度3个方面比较调味品细分子行业,并且从生产工艺和消费速度来解释它们之间的差异；再次利用定性和定量的方式对调味品行业增速进行了分析；此外,还引进行业集中度指标刻画调味品行业现在的集中状况以及未来的集中趋势；最后从战略、运营、财务3个方面分析调味品相关上市公司,揭示行业中龙头企业的优势以及优势的来源。文章结构在食品饮料行业中受益于消费升级的子行业较多,但并不是每个子行业都存在这样的投资机会,本文第一部分主要是通过是否拥有心智资源、盈利性、成长性、稳定性、是否拥有可投资标的五个维度来横向比较了食品饮料行业中七个细分子行业的投资时点和机会,从而总结出调味品行业作为具有中国特色、消费稳定的行业,在当今大众消费的潮流下是最具有投资价值食品饮料行业之一不过从普通人的消费情况来看,调味品作为一种必需品早已渗透至千家万户,其持续增长性为投资者所担心,为打消投资者疑虑,本文从两个方面来分析调味品行业的增长情况,其中本文第二部分主要是对调味品行业再进一步细分,剔除了处于衰退期的味精行业增速,调味品行业被掩盖的增速得以重现,增速超出未剔除时。而本文第三部分则从调味品三个下游渠道来分析行业增速情况,其中餐饮渠道的调味品消费主要是受益于城镇化推进过程中,城镇居民社交用餐增加,经过模型测算该渠道未来五年消费增速在11%以上；而家庭渠道的消费增加则源于传统调味品消费从有味向健康转变所带的产品升级和其他新型的调味品品类推出,根据国家统计局发布的城镇居民不同收入阶层消费调味品支出数据推算,家庭渠道人均消费调味品支出只少还存在30%的提升空间,人均收入倍增计划将为调味品消费升级提供购买力；而在食品加工渠道消费增速则来源于经济发展过程中,人们生活节奏加快。综合来看,未来五年调味品下游消费以10%以上继续增长将是大概率事件。此外,调味品行业相对其他食品饮料子行业有其独特之处。调味品行业生产区域分散和多品类导致了其行业集中度远远低于其他食品饮料子行业,本文第四部分对调味品行业的竞争格局和行业集中度低的现象进行了分析,现今我国调味品生产相对落后,主要以地方生产为主,只有少部分现代化、全国化的调味品生产企业,但是未来随着行业标准和卫生要求的提高,大量不合格作坊式企业将会被挤出市场、竞争的加剧将会使得大量亏损的中小企业被迫退出行业、再加上龙头企业扩展计划的实施,未来行业集中度将会大幅度提高。因此,行业未来的整合和并购也将会是一个潜在的投资机会。本文第五部分从行业层面分析下降到公司层面分析,对各家上市的生产酱油为主的调味品企业进行了对比分析,其中海天味业作为调味品行业的龙头企业所拥有的优势是其他竞争对手所难以企及,其拥有的竞争优势主要在利用工艺和技术优势保证产出高质量的酱油；全自动化的生产线和用料的选择带来成本上优势；专注调味品、酱油成为中国酱油第一品牌,在消费者心中拥有物美价廉酱油的字眼这三个方面。这些优势为海天带来持续不断稳定的现金流和高于同行的盈利能力。最后揭示投资海天味业存在的短期和长期风险,其中短期风险来源于原材料采购的风险和竞争对手抢占中高端市场的风险,前者由于白糖价格处于下降通道,因此原材料成本价格对生产成本的影响不大,而另外一个短期风险,海天也已经采取对策,推出海天“零添加”子品牌应对中高端市场的竞争。而长期风险则在于公司品牌过度延伸和酱油消费日趋饱和的风险。创新之处第一：在行业分析过程中,本文独立构建了如何评价食品饮料行业是否受益于消费升级的评价体系,解释了为什么投资调味品行业的理由。第二：深刻的解析了调味品行业,特别是除味精以外的调味品行业其未来的增长动力,并且借助模型独立测算行业增速。第三：在公司分析层面上,独到之处在于对海天味业核心竞争力的挖掘,从经营和财务上分析海天在产品质和价上优于竞争对手的原因,并且引入定位理论对海天品牌溢价进行了分析和量化。
[Abstract]:primary coverage
This paper, based on the two trends of China's continuing urbanization and the implementation of the per capita income multiplication plan, expounds the factors that promote the growth of the condiment industry and the future concentration trend of the industry, and draws the investment opportunity brought by the consumption upgrading of the condiment industry, and then from the strategy, the core competitiveness, and the financial three party. It analyzes and compares several listed companies in the industry and summarizes the core competitive advantages of the industry's leading sea sky flavor industry, and finally reveals some of the risk points that exist in the company.
primary coverage
First of all, this paper subdivides the food and beverage industry into 7 sub industries, and compares the profit, growth, stability, 5 dimensions of mental resources and investment standards, and establishes the investment value of the fine molecular industry of food and beverage, and then subdivides the condiment industry into subdivision, and from the growth rate and Maori. Compared with the 3 aspects of the turnover rate of the flow assets, the fine molecular industry of the condiment is compared, and the differences between them are explained from the production process and the consumption speed. The growth of the condiment industry is analyzed by the qualitative and quantitative methods. And the future concentration trend; finally from the strategic, operational, financial 3 aspects of the analysis of seasoning related listed companies, to reveal the advantages of the leading enterprises in the industry and the source of advantages.
Structure of article
In the food and beverage industry, there are more sub industries that benefit from the consumption upgrade, but not every sub industry has such investment opportunities. The first part of this paper is mainly through the five dimensions of the mental resources, profitability, growth, stability, and whether there is a standard of investment to compare the seven finer in the food and beverage industry. The time point and opportunity of investment in the molecular industry concludes that the condiment industry is an industry with Chinese characteristics and stable consumption, and is one of the most valuable food and beverage industries under the current trend of mass consumption.
However, from the consumption situation of ordinary people, seasoning as a necessity has already permeated thousands of households, its continuing growth is a concern for investors. In order to dispel investors' doubts, this article analyzes the growth of the condiment industry from two aspects. The second parts of this article are further subdivided into the condiment industry, and are further subdivided. In addition to the growth of the monosodium glutamate industry in the recession period, the growth rate of the condiment industry is reappeared, and the growth rate is beyond the non rejection. The third part of this paper analyzes the industry growth rate from the three downstream channels of the condiment, in which the consumption of the condiments of the catering channels is mainly benefited from the urbanization process and the urban residents' social meals. The consumption growth of the channel in the next five years is above 11%, and the increase of the consumption of family channels is derived from the upgrading of the traditional condiment consumption from the taste to health and the introduction of other new types of condiments. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the consumption of seasoning expenditure in different income groups of urban residents has been issued by the National Bureau of statistics. According to the data, the expenditure of household consumption per capita consumption of condiments is only less than 30%, and the per capita income multiplication plan will provide purchasing power for the upgrading of condiment consumption; while the growth rate of food processing channels is derived from the pace of people's life in the process of economic development. In a comprehensive view, the downstream consumption of seasoning will be consumed in the next five years. More than 10% growth will be a big probability event.
In addition, the condiment industry has its unique features relative to other food and beverage industries. The production area dispersion and multiple categories in the condiment industry have led to its industry concentration far below the other food and beverage industries. The fourth part of this paper analyzes the competition pattern of the condiment industry and the moderate low concentration of the industry. The production of taste products is relatively backward, mainly with local production, only a few modernized and nation-wide condiments production enterprises. But in the future, with the improvement of industry standards and health requirements, a large number of unqualified workshop type enterprises will be squeezed out of the market. The intensification of competition will make the large and loss small and medium sized enterprises withdraw from the industry and add again. In the future, the future integration and merger will be a potential investment opportunity.
In the fifth part, from the analysis of the industry level analysis to the company level, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the seasoning enterprises which are mainly listed in the production of soy sauce. The advantage of the sea sky flavor industry as the leading enterprise of the condiment industry is difficult to reach the other competitors, and its competitive advantage is mainly in the use of technology. And technical advantages to ensure high quality soy sauce; the selection of fully automated production lines and materials bring cost advantages; concentrate on seasoning, soy sauce becomes the first brand of Chinese soy sauce, and there are three aspects of Chinese soy sauce in the consumer's heart. These advantages bring steady and steady cash flow and high to the sea. The profitability of the peers.
Finally, the short-term and long-term risks are revealed, in which the short-term risk comes from the risk of raw material procurement and the risk that competitors seize the middle and high end markets. The former is in a decline in the price of sugar, so the cost of raw materials has little effect on the cost of production. After taking countermeasures, the "zero added" sub brand of sea sky should be introduced to meet the competition in the middle and high end markets. The long-term risk lies in the risk of excessive brand extension of the company and the increasing saturation of soy sauce consumption.
Innovation
First: in the process of industry analysis, this article independently constructs the evaluation system of how the food and beverage industry has benefited from the consumption upgrade, and explains why the industry is invested in the flavoring industry.
Second: deep analysis of the seasoning industry, especially the flavoring industry except monosodium glutamate, its future growth momentum, and the use of model independent measurement of industry growth.
Third: at the level of company analysis, the uniqueness lies in the excavation of the core competitiveness of the sea sky flavor industry, the analysis and quantification of the premium of the sea sky brand from the management and financial analysis of the quality and price of the sea sky in the quality and price of the sea.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.82

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