煤炭经济运行风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 19:07

本文选题：煤炭经济 + 风险　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：煤炭是我国的主体能源，煤炭经济的平稳运行是保障国家能源安全的重要基础。现阶段，由于产能过剩，下游需求乏力，进口低价煤冲击等不利因素的影响，煤炭市场行情处于低位。但煤炭作为我国基础能源的重要地位不可动摇，长远来看，行业将持续繁荣。正是由于目前的艰难环境，煤炭经济运行风险的研究显得尤为重要。本文以我国煤炭经济为研究对象，采用实证分析和规范分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，，对煤炭经济运行风险进行了深入的研究与探讨。首先界定了煤炭经济运行风险的概念、目标，然后结合我国煤炭经济运行现状和运行机理，定性分析了煤炭经济运行各影响因素间的关系，在此基础上建立了基于供应风险、市场风险、资源环境风险和微观基础风险四个维度的经济运行风险评价指标体系，进一步通过模糊思想将指标指数化，综合运用熵值法和层次分析法构建了煤炭经济运行风险评价模型。在此基础上，运用评价模型从多个层次、多个角度对2000-2012年煤炭经济运行风险展开定量评价。通过建立各指标之间的变量关系预测了2013-2020年煤炭经济运行风险走势，并结合情景分析了不同情景下风险的变化，研究认为：（1）2018年是煤炭行业的转折点，此后可能进入新的黄金期，可能运行更加困难；（2）GDP增长率的高低影响煤炭经济转折点的到来时间；（3）能源结构变化过快，风险加大，并改变风险运行轨迹；（4）在供大于求的状态下，进口量对煤炭经济运行风险影响不大。最后，提出了我国煤炭产业经济运行风险防范措施，从建立煤炭储备基地、增加科技投入、建立需求预测系统等多个方面提出了具体对策与建议。
[Abstract]:Coal is the main source of energy in China, and the smooth operation of coal economy is the important foundation to ensure the national energy security. At this stage, the coal market is at a low level due to overcapacity, weak downstream demand and the impact of low-price imported coal, among other adverse factors. But the important position of coal as the basic energy of our country is unshakable, in the long run, the industry will continue to flourish. It is because of the current difficult environment, the study of coal economic operation risk is particularly important. This paper takes the coal economy of our country as the research object, adopts the method of combining the positive analysis with the norm analysis, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, carries on the thorough research and the discussion to the coal economy operation risk. Firstly, this paper defines the concept and target of coal economic operation risk, and then, combining with the present situation and operation mechanism of coal economy in our country, qualitatively analyzes the relationship between the influencing factors of coal economy operation, and establishes the supply risk based on this. The index system of economic operation risk evaluation in four dimensions of market risk, resource environment risk and micro basic risk is further indexed by fuzzy idea. The risk evaluation model of coal economy operation is constructed by using entropy method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). On this basis, the evaluation model is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk of coal economic operation in 2000-2012 from many levels and angles. By establishing the variable relation among the indicators, this paper forecasts the trend of coal economic running risk in 2013-2020, and analyzes the change of risk under different scenarios. The study shows that 2018 is the turning point of coal industry. After that, it may enter a new golden period, and it may be more difficult to run. The growth rate of GDP will affect the arrival time of the turning point of coal economy. (3) the energy structure will change too fast, the risk will increase, and the risk track will be changed. 4) under the condition that supply exceeds demand, the import quantity has little effect on the risk of coal economy operation. Finally, the paper puts forward the measures to prevent the risk of the economic operation of our country's coal industry, and puts forward some concrete countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of establishing the coal reserve base, increasing the scientific and technological input, establishing the demand forecasting system and so on.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21

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