中国生物液体燃料技术经济分析及预测

发布时间：2018-06-21 15:07

本文选题：工业技术经济分析 + 生物液体燃料　；参考：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年09期

【摘要】：该文建立了生物液体燃料出厂价格(PGP)计算模型,在求得初始投资、原料成本、运营成本、贷款及利息、税费的基础上,采用净现值(NPV)法,求解产品最低出厂价格,并给出各类成本在液体燃料不同阶段出厂价格中所占的比例。该文选取了17种具有代表性的技术路线进行分析和预测,旨在为科研和产业发展提供指导,为国家制定产业发展政策及产业布局提供决策支持。研究结果表明:1.5代生物液体燃料出厂价格对原料成本高度敏感,占54%~90%,以非粮淀粉和糖类为原料的燃料乙醇和以小桐子为原料的生物柴油或航空煤油可在2020—2025年之间实现与化石燃料相比具有竞争力;对于2代生物液体燃料,原料成本及运营成本对出厂价格的贡献基本相当,分别占13%~40%和21%~48%,可在2020—2030年间实现成本的大幅下降,2025年前后与化石燃料相比具备竞争力;对于3代生物液体燃料,其出厂价格对原料成本最为敏感,占64%~96%,2040—2045年之间才能够与化石燃料相竞争。税费优惠政策对生物液体燃料的发展至关重要,可使大部分燃料提前10~15a与化石燃料相比具有竞争力;同时,对化石燃料征收碳税将有助于生物燃料更早实现其竞争优势,但近中期所能发挥的作用有限。本研究建议政府合理布局生物液体燃料产业发展,在原料育种和原料收储运体系建设、生物燃料技术研发与示范方面给予支持;在一定时期内对生物液体燃料免征消费税和所得税,实行增值税即征即退;对化石燃料征收碳税。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a PGP-based model for calculating the ex-factory price of bio-liquid fuel is established. On the basis of obtaining the initial investment, raw material cost, operating cost, loan and interest, tax and fee, the net present value (NPV) method is used to solve the lowest ex-factory price of the product. The proportion of various costs in the production price of liquid fuel at different stages is also given. In this paper, 17 representative technical routes are selected for analysis and prediction, aiming at providing guidance for scientific research and industrial development, and providing decision support for the government to formulate industrial development policies and industrial layout. The results show that the price of 1: 1.5 generation bio-liquid fuel is highly sensitive to the cost of raw materials. Fuel ethanol, which uses non-grain starch and sugar as raw materials, and biodiesel or aviation kerosene with jatropha as raw materials can be competitive with fossil fuels between 2020-2025; for second-generation bioliquid fuels, The contribution of raw material cost and operating cost to the ex-factory price is basically the same, accounting for 1340% and 21% of the total price, respectively, which can bring about a significant decrease in cost between 2020-2030 and be competitive with fossil fuels around 2025; for the third generation of bioliquid fuels, The factory price is the most sensitive to the cost of raw materials, accounting for 64% in 2040-2045 years to compete with fossil fuels. Tax incentives are crucial to the development of biofuels, making most fuels more competitive than fossil fuels by 1015a; at the same time, a carbon tax on fossil fuels would help biofuels realize their competitive advantage earlier, But the role that can be played in the near and medium term is limited. This study suggests that the government should rationally distribute the development of bio-liquid fuel industry and support the development of feedstock breeding and raw material storage and transportation system as well as the development and demonstration of biofuel technology. In a certain period of time, the consumption tax and income tax will be exempted from the bio-liquid fuel, and the value-added tax will be withdrawn immediately, and the carbon tax will be levied on the fossil fuel.
【作者单位】：清华大学能源环境经济研究所;清华大学中国车用能源研究中心;清华大学低碳能源实验室;中国科学院广州能源研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71203119,71103109)
【分类号】：F426.7;F767

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