重庆市工业化、城镇化对城乡统筹的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 22:21

本文选题：工业化 + 城镇化　；参考：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国工业化、城镇化水平快速提高,城乡面貌焕然一新,但城乡差距也呈现出扩大趋势,城乡二元结构并未得到明显改善,城乡统筹发展依然任重道远。城乡统筹发展不仅与政策投入、资源配置有关,而且与工业化、城镇化紧密关联,因此,有必要从学术角度厘清三者间的内在关系。基于此,本文以重庆市作为实证研究对象,将工业化、城镇化与城乡统筹纳入同一研究体系,以期深刻揭示工业化、城镇化对城乡统筹的影响规律和作用机制,丰富城乡统筹理论,并为重庆市处理好工业化、城镇化与城乡统筹的关系提供借鉴参考。本文在充分梳理国内外城乡统筹理论成果并结合重庆市区域情况的基础上,分别构建了工业化、城镇化、城乡统筹评价指标体系。运用均方差权值法计算出各指标权重以及工业化、城镇化、城乡统筹的综合得分,并分别对重庆市工业化、城镇化和城乡统筹现状进行了客观评价。文章通过构建VAR模型和多元逐步回归模型,定量测度重庆市工业化、城镇化对城乡统筹的影响关系,得出如下结论：第一,重庆市工业化对城乡统筹发展表现出负相关关系,而城镇化对城乡统筹具有正向拉动作用。格兰杰因果检验表明,城镇化与城乡统筹之间互为因果关系；工业化不是城乡统筹发展的格兰杰原因,而城乡统筹是工业化的格兰杰原因。此外,脉冲响应分析表明,重庆城乡统筹发展具有累积效应,即城乡统筹受自身发展水平影响,并且这种影响在长、短期内均呈正相关系；重庆城乡统筹水平对城镇化水平的变动具有高度弹性,二者交互作用强；重庆城乡统筹发展对工业化的短期作用响应明显。第二,表征工业化和城镇化水平的各单项指标对城乡统筹发展水平具有不同的影响效果。在工业化指标系统中,工业增加值占GDP比重、单位GDP能耗指标与城乡统筹呈负向关系,而工业增加值增长速度、全员劳动生产率、工业企业综合效益指数、重轻工业主营业务收入比例等指标对城乡统筹起正向促进作用。其次,在城镇化系统中,二三产业就业人员占总就业人员比重、城镇人均GDP、城镇每千人教师数量、人均道路铺设面积等指标对城乡统筹具有正向带动作用,而城镇人均固定资产投资指标与城乡统筹具有负向关系。第三,重庆市工业化、城镇化对城乡统筹的影响是通过三大路径实现的,分别是“结构转换——效益提高”路径、“城镇发展——就业增加”路径、“制度改革——资源配置”路径。其中,“结构转换——效益提高”路径是通过优化区域产业结构、提高工业化效益来促进城乡统筹发展的,这要求重庆今后要大力优化工业结构,充分发挥工业对农村的带动作用,同时要发展农村工业化,破解农村产业空心化困境；“城镇发展——就业增加”路径是指通过城镇化水平的提高和城镇就业人口的增加来带动城乡统筹发展,重庆今后须着力推进新型城镇化进程,加大城市转移农村剩余劳动力力度；“制度改革——资源配置”路径是指通过深化体制机制改革,逐步消除城乡统筹的制度障碍,科学配置城乡公共资源,因此,重庆市需在土地、户籍、财政、金融等方面深化改革,为城乡资源优化配置提供强有力的制度保障。本文在指标体系构建、变量选取和计量方法运用等方面进行了适当创新,既确保了研究过程和结果的真实性,又能在一定程度上弥补以往研究的不足。与此同时,本文只是从时间序列角度对重庆市工业化、城镇化与城乡统筹的关系展开了研究,并未对其空间分异特征进行分析,因而还有较大研究空间。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening - up , the industrialization and urbanization level of our country have been improved rapidly , the urban and rural areas are completely new , but the urban and rural disparity is not obviously improved , the urban and rural dual structure has not been obviously improved , the urban and rural dual structure has not been obviously improved , and the urban and rural integration development is still a long way . Therefore , it is necessary to clarify the influence law and the function mechanism of industrialization and urbanization on urban and rural integration , enrich the urban and rural integration theory , and provide reference for the relationship between industrialization , urbanization and urban and rural integration .

Based on the analysis of the achievements of urban and rural integration theory at home and abroad and combined with Chongqing ' s regional situation , the paper constructs the index system of industrialization , urbanization and urban and rural integration .

First , the industrialization of Chongqing has a negative correlation with the development of urban and rural integration , and urbanization has a positive pulling effect on urban and rural integration .
Industrialization is not the cause of the integrated development of the urban and rural areas , but the urban and rural integration is the cause of industrialization . In addition , the impulse response analysis shows that the integrated development of the urban and rural areas of Chongqing has the cumulative effect , that is , the urban and rural integration is influenced by its own development level , and the influence is in positive phase relation in the long and short term ;
The urban and rural integration level of Chongqing has high elasticity and strong interaction with the change of urbanization level .
The short - term effect of urban and rural development in Chongqing is obvious to the short - term effect of industrialization .

Secondly , in the system of industrialization , the industrial added value is the proportion of GDP , the energy consumption index of unit GDP is negative relation with urban and rural integration , and the index of industrial added value growth rate , total labor productivity , comprehensive benefit index of industrial enterprise and the proportion of main business income of heavy light industry plays a positive role in urban and rural integration .

Third , the influence of industrialization and urbanization of Chongqing on urban and rural integration is realized through three main paths , which are " structure transformation _ benefit enhancement " path , " urban development _ employment increase " path and " system reform _ resource allocation " path .
The path of " urban development _ employment increase " refers to the development of urban and rural integration through the improvement of the urbanization level and the increase of the urban employment population , so as to push forward the new urbanization process in the future , and increase the rural surplus labor force in the city ;
The path of " system reform _ resource allocation " refers to the gradual elimination of the system obstacle of urban and rural integration by deepening the reform of the institutional mechanism and the scientific collocation of urban and rural public resources . Therefore , Chongqing needs to deepen the reform in the fields of land , household , finance and finance , and provide a strong institutional guarantee for the optimal allocation of urban and rural resources .

At the same time , this paper studies the relationship between industrialization , urbanization and urban and rural integration in Chongqing from the viewpoint of time series .
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427;F299.27

【参考文献】