吉林省汽车产业低碳化评价与影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-27 05:08

  本文选题：汽车产业低碳化 + 碳排放　； 参考：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：吉林省汽车工业是新中国汽车工业的摇篮。2013年，坐落在吉林省长春市的中国第一汽车集团公司迎来了建厂60周年。第一汽车制造厂作为新中国第一批汽车生产基地，背负着汽车强国的历史使命，60年来诞生了“解放”、“东风”、“红旗”等一批家喻户晓的品牌。吉林省汽车工业可谓是新中国汽车工业从无到有、从弱到强的实践者与见证者，是新中国汽车工业辉煌历史的谱写者。 汽车工业是吉林省的支柱性产业。2012年，吉林省汽车制造业产值占吉林省工业总产值的比重高达27.7%，汽车制造业对吉林省经济拉动作用显著。2001年，中国加入WTO以来，中国汽车工业顶住了来自国际汽车市场的压力，经历的一段井喷式的增长。吉林省整车产量由2002年生产52.87万辆增长到2012年生产197.56万辆，翻了两番左右。2012年吉林省汽车制造业零部件企业数量突破400家，围绕一汽和大众两大整车制造商，产业集群效应初显。汽车市场方面，吉林省民用汽车保有量从2002年的47.57万辆增长到2012年的225.09万辆，翻了两番多。吉林省汽车制造业呈现出一片繁荣的景象。 但是，随着经济的高速发展，随之而来的能源与环境问题逐渐凸显。尤其2012年以来北京等地区出现的持续性雾霾天气，更是将PM2.5等环境问题推到了舆论的风口浪尖，引发了全社会的关注。早在2003年，英国的能源白皮书《我们能源的未来：创建低碳经济》中，，第一次提出了低碳经济的概念。这种可持续发展的理念、追求经济发展与环境保护双赢的经济发展形态很快得到了国际社会的认同。而中国过去的经济发展是以极大的环境为代价的，“高能耗、高污染、高排放”的经济发展模式显然不满足低碳经济的客观要求。汽车产业一直是“高能耗、高污染、高排放”的代名词。因此，进行产业结构优化与升级、低碳化转型势在必行。 本文在当前的经济背景下，从低碳经济的视角出发，以吉林省汽车产业为研究对象，对吉林省汽车产业低碳化发展水平进行了评价，并分析了吉林省汽车产业碳排放影响因素，通过实证揭示各影响因素对吉林省碳排放量的影响程度。各章节内容如下： 第一章，本论文的选题背景、研究内容、研究方法、数据来源以及创新点等内容的说明。 第二章，对国内外的低碳经济理论和产业低碳化转型相关文献进行梳理和总结，作为本文研究的理论支撑。对发达国家汽车产业低碳化转型的实践经验进行归纳整理，选取美国、日本以及欧盟作为主要研究对象，总结它们在汽车产业低碳化转型过程中的成功经验。 第三章，分析了吉林省汽车产业能源消耗与碳排放现状。运用因子分析的方法，从产业经济、节能环保、循环利用三个方面建立了低碳经济下汽车产业评价模型，评价模型共包含15个指标，通过该模型对国内30个省份（除西藏和港澳台）进行评价，从而揭示吉林省汽车产业低碳化发展水平。 第四章，对吉林省汽车产业碳排放量影响因素进行梳理。根据协整理论，建立了吉林省碳排放量与交通运输设备制造业能源消耗量、机动车保有量、居民消费水平、每万人公共交通梳理的协整模型，通过协整模型检验五组时间序列间的长期均衡关系。通过脉冲分析，观察吉林省碳排放量对这四个影响因素一个标准差新息脉冲的响应。 第五章，针对上文对吉林省汽车产业低碳化发展水平的评价与影响吉林省汽车产业碳排放量的因素，结合模型的实证结果，从促进机动车保有量绿色增长、清洁生产因素方面、消费者因素方面、能源效率因素方面四个层面对吉林省汽车产业低碳化转型提出几点对策和建议。
[Abstract]:Jilin auto industry is the cradle of the new China auto industry.2013. The China First Automobile Group Corporation, located in Changchun, Jilin Province, ushered in the construction plant 60th anniversary. The first automobile manufacturing plant, as the first batch of automobile production base in the new China, bears the historical mission of the automobile power. In 60 years, the "liberation", "Dongfeng", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red", "red" The flag "and so on" a number of household name brands. Jilin auto industry is a new China auto industry from scratch, from weak to strong practitioners and witnesses, is the new Chinese auto industry brilliant history of the history of the composer.
The automobile industry is the pillar industry of Jilin province in.2012 years. The proportion of automobile manufacturing output in Jilin province accounts for 27.7% of the total industrial output value of Jilin province. The driving effect of automobile manufacturing industry to Jilin province is.2001 years. Since China's entry into WTO, China's auto industry has withstood the pressure from the international automobile market and experienced a blowout type. The total vehicle output of Jilin province increased from 528 thousand and 700 vehicles in 2002 to 1 million 975 thousand and 600 in 2012. The number of auto manufacturing parts enterprises in Jilin province broke through 400 in.2012 years, around FAW and the public two major vehicle manufacturers, and the industrial cluster effect was first revealed. In the automobile market, the number of civil automobiles in Jilin province was from 2002 The number of 475 thousand and 700 vehicles in 2012 increased to more than two times in 2012, and the auto manufacturing industry in Hunan Province was booming.
However, with the rapid development of the economy, the problems of energy and environment are becoming increasingly prominent. Especially, the persistent haze weather in Beijing and other areas since 2012 has pushed the environmental problems such as PM2.5 to the public opinion. In 2003, the energy white paper of Britain was "the future of our energy." In the first time, the concept of low carbon economy is put forward in the establishment of low carbon economy. The concept of sustainable development and the economic development form pursuing the win-win of economic development and environmental protection are quickly recognized by the international community. The past economic development of China is the economic development of the great environment, "high energy consumption, high pollution, high emission". The model of economic development obviously does not meet the objective requirement of low carbon economy. The automobile industry has always been the pronoun of "high energy consumption, high pollution and high emission". Therefore, it is imperative to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure.
Under the current economic background, from the perspective of low carbon economy and taking the automobile industry of Jilin Province as the research object, this paper evaluates the low carbonization development level of the automobile industry in Jilin Province, analyzes the influence factors of the carbon emission in the automobile industry of Jilin Province, and reveals the influence degree of the influence factors on the carbon emission of Jilin province by the empirical analysis. The contents of the chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is about the background, research contents, research methods, data sources and innovations of this thesis.
The second chapter, the domestic and foreign low-carbon economic theory and industrial low carbon transformation related literature to sort out and summarize, as the theoretical support of this study, the practical experience of the low-carbon transformation of the automobile industry in developed countries was summarized, and selected the United States, Japan and the European Union as the main research object, and summed up their low automobile industry. Successful experience in the process of carbonization.
In the third chapter, the current status of energy consumption and carbon emission in Jilin auto industry is analyzed. Using factor analysis, the evaluation model of automobile industry under low carbon economy is established from three aspects of industrial economy, energy conservation, environmental protection and recycling. The evaluation model includes 15 indexes in 30 provinces in China (except Tibet and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). Evaluation to reveal the low carbon development level of Jilin's automobile industry.
In the fourth chapter, the influence factors of carbon emission in Jilin auto industry are combed. According to cointegration theory, the co integration model of carbon emission and transportation equipment manufacturing industry in Jilin Province, motor vehicle ownership, resident consumption level, and public transportation of every 10000 people is set up, and the length of the five groups of time series is tested by cointegration model. Through the pulse analysis, the response of Jilin's carbon emissions to the four standard factors of the new standard pulse is observed.
The fifth chapter, in view of the evaluation of the low carbon development level of Jilin auto industry and the factors affecting the carbon emission of automobile industry in Jilin Province, combined with the empirical results of the model, the four aspects of promoting the green growth of the motor vehicles, the factors of cleaner production, the consumer factors and the energy efficiency factors are facing the Jilin automobile. Some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in the industrial low carbonization transformation.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471

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