我国煤炭价格形成机制及煤炭价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 01:13

本文选题：煤炭价格 + 价格形成机制　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国是煤炭大国，煤炭资源很丰富。煤炭一直是我国的主要能源，在我国一次能源消费结构中占主导地位，且格局在短时间内难以发生根本改变。我国煤炭工业在过去十年间发展迅速，被誉为煤炭的“黄金十年”。在这十年间，，煤炭价格稳步提升，直到2012年5月，价格开始持续下降。由于煤炭工业既是我国基础能源的主导产业又是我国国民经济的上游产业，所以煤炭价格波动涉及面很广泛，其价格波动不仅直接影响煤炭企业的供给，也将对下游各相关产业的成本和价格构成影响，进而影响我国的物价、投资、消费和进出口，最终会对我国经济构成影响。因此，研究煤炭价格及其价格形成机制是很有意义的。本文先简单介绍了一下煤炭和我国煤炭资源的状况，阐述了煤炭资源在我国能源消费中不可动摇的主体地位以及煤炭工业现状。然后梳理了自建国以来我国煤炭价格形成机制的演变过程。我国煤炭价格机制大体可以划分为三个阶段，即完全计划价格时期、价格调放时期和市场化时期。在研究了现在正处于的市场化时期的煤炭价格走势之后，找出了影响煤炭价格的相关因素。在对这些因素进行描述之后，建立模型对这些影响煤炭价格的因素与煤炭价格之间的关系进行了分析。本文研究的数据期间为2006年-2013年的月度和季度数据。由于是时间序列数据，采用的模型包括：单位根检验、E-G两步法协整检验、Granger因果关系检验以及线性回归检验。分析最后得出的主要结论为：中国煤炭市场市场化不足，供求变化不能完全反映价格变化；国内煤炭市场的国际竞争力不足，对国际煤炭市场没有话语权；煤炭价格的波动最终会影响我国整体的国民经济。并就这些问题提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:China is a big coal country, coal resources are very rich. Coal is the main energy of our country all the time, it occupies the leading position in the primary energy consumption structure of our country, and the pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in a short period of time. China's coal industry has developed rapidly in the past ten years and is known as the "golden decade" of coal. During the decade, coal prices rose steadily until May 2012, when prices began to fall. Because the coal industry is not only the leading industry of basic energy in our country but also the upstream industry of our national economy, the fluctuation of coal price involves a wide range of areas, and its price fluctuation not only directly affects the supply of coal enterprises. It will also affect the cost and price of the downstream related industries, and then affect the price, investment, consumption, import and export of our country, which will ultimately affect the economy of our country. Therefore, it is very meaningful to study the coal price and its price formation mechanism. This paper briefly introduces the status of coal and coal resources in China, expounds the unshakable main position of coal resources in China's energy consumption and the present situation of coal industry. Then it combs the evolution process of coal price formation mechanism since the founding of the people's Republic of China. The coal price mechanism in China can be divided into three stages, namely, the period of complete planned price, the period of price adjustment and release and the period of marketization. After studying the coal price trend in the market-oriented period, the related factors affecting the coal price are found out. After describing these factors, a model is established to analyze the relationship between these factors and coal prices. The data period of this study is monthly and quarterly data from 2006 to 2013. Because of the time series data, the models used include: unit root test, E-G two-step cointegration test, Granger causality test and linear regression test. The main conclusions of the analysis are as follows: the market of coal in China is insufficient, the change of supply and demand can not completely reflect the change of price, the international competitiveness of domestic coal market is insufficient, and there is no right to speak to the international coal market; The fluctuation of coal price will eventually affect the whole national economy of our country. Some suggestions on these problems are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21

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