中小流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目风险管控研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 17:37

本文选题：中小流域 + 发电调度系统　；参考：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水力资源是可再生的清洁能源,全国众多河流上建设了大量的小水电站,中小流域的小水电站主要功能就是发电。国家电网公司电力调度实行分级管理的模式,分别负责调度不同电压等级的电网。同一流域的水电站由于装机容量不同、地域不同,分别由不同的调度机构进行发电调度,大部分没有实行集中调度,上下游水电站无法统筹协调发电,部分电站有水就发电、无水就停机,影响整条流域发电出力规划。为解决这些问题,各流域水电站、各级调度单位都在积极建设流域梯级统一调度系统,并取得了丰硕成果,但是从实际开发应用情况来看也存在许多问题,特别是在中小流域梯级发电调度系统建设方面。技术条件、管理水平、自然环境和社会环境等工程项目的影响因素也同样影响着中小流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目,使项目具有较大的不确定性,在建设和运行管理阶段面临较复杂的风险。在项目实施和运行阶段,项目面临较大风险的主要原因还有业主和项目管理者风险管理意识薄弱,该阶段投入的人、财、物资源多,可能无法合理应用各种资源；另外,缺少适合项目适用的或可供参考的风险管理模型,也是主要原因之一。鉴于以上问题,为了全面管控项目实施和运行过程中的风险,保证项目的顺利实施,提高企业的效益,确实有必要研究一种针对中小型流域梯级发电调度系统建设和运行的风险管理方法。本文以汀江流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目为研究背景,运用风险管控理论方法和工具,识别和分析小水电站业主和电网企业在项目建设和运行阶段的风险因素,然后建立项目的模糊综合评估模型并利用该模型评估分析项目的风险,最后,结合汀江流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目的具体情况选择最合理的风险管控策略和措施,降低项目各个环节的风险,按计划、按进度顺利完成项目实施,最大限度地实现小水电站业主和电网企业的建设目标。本文的研究内容主要有以下几方面：1、深入分析中小流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目的风险特点和风险管理过程。2、给出中小流域梯级发电调度系统项目建设和运行的风险识别方法,建立中小流域梯级发电调度系统项目的风险结构模型,对技术风险、管理风险、经济风险和环境风险进行识别,得到项目的风险清单。3、给出中小流域梯级发电调度系统项目的风险分析和评估方法,建立项目的模糊综合评估模型,研究中小型流域梯级发电调度系统项目的风险管控方法。4、针对汀江流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目进行实证研究,对汀江流域梯级发电调度系统建设项目进行定性定量的风险评估和分析,并给出风险管控的经验和教训。
[Abstract]:Hydraulic resources are renewable clean energy. A large number of small hydropower stations have been built on many rivers in China. The main function of small hydropower stations in middle and small watersheds is to generate electricity. The State Grid Company adopts a hierarchical management model, which is responsible for dispatching different voltage levels of the power grid. Due to different installed capacity and different regions, hydropower stations in the same basin are operated by different dispatching agencies respectively. Most of the hydropower stations do not carry out centralized dispatching, and the upstream and downstream hydropower stations are unable to coordinate the generation of electricity, and some of the hydropower stations have water to generate electricity. No water will stop, affecting the whole basin power generation planning. In order to solve these problems, all hydropower stations and dispatching units at all levels are actively building the cascade unified dispatching system of the river basin, and have achieved fruitful results, but there are also many problems in the actual development and application. Especially in the middle and small watershed cascade power generation dispatching system construction. The technical condition, management level, natural environment and social environment also affect the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in middle and small watershed, which makes the project more uncertain. In the construction and operation management phase is faced with more complex risks. In the stage of project implementation and operation, the main reason for the project facing greater risk is the weak awareness of risk management of the owner and the project manager. In this stage, many people, wealth and material resources may not be able to use all kinds of resources reasonably. The lack of suitable or referential risk management models is also one of the main reasons. In view of the above problems, in order to comprehensively control the risks in the implementation and operation of the project, ensure the smooth implementation of the project, and improve the efficiency of the enterprise, It is necessary to study a risk management method for the construction and operation of cascade power generation dispatching system in small and medium-sized watersheds. Taking the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in the Ting River Basin as the research background, this paper uses the risk control theory and tools to identify and analyze the risk factors of small hydropower station owners and power grid enterprises in the construction and operation stages of the project. Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the project is established and the risk of the project is evaluated and analyzed by using the model. Finally, the most reasonable risk control strategy and measures are selected according to the concrete situation of the construction project of the cascade power generation dispatching system in the Ting River basin. Reduce the risk of each link of the project, according to the plan, according to the progress of the successful completion of the project, to maximize the realization of small hydropower plant owners and grid enterprises construction objectives. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: 1, deeply analyzing the risk characteristics and risk management process of cascade power generation dispatching system construction project in middle and small watershed, and giving the construction and operation of cascade power generation dispatching system project in middle and small watershed. Line risk identification method, The risk structure model of cascade power generation dispatching system project in middle and small watershed is established to identify the technical risk, management risk, economic risk and environmental risk. Get the risk list of the project. 3, give the risk analysis and evaluation method of the middle and small watershed cascade power generation dispatching system project, and establish the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the project. This paper studies the risk control method of cascade power generation dispatching system project in small and medium-sized watershed, and carries out empirical research on the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in Ting River basin. Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment and analysis are carried out on the construction project of cascade power generation dispatching system in the Tingjiang River Basin, and the experiences and lessons of risk management and control are given.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;TM73

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