中化化肥有限公司风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 13:57

【摘要】：2008年以来世界经济形势出现诸多变数,国际金融危机导致世界经济增长模式和调整变化的过程极其复杂,国内经济面临改革和调整的阶段,直接影响各产业的生存和发展。化肥行业作为中国主要关系国计民生的行业之一同样面临各种冲击,行业不规范、进入门槛低、产能过剩、恶性竞争等等已经在持续恶化,风险预判大幅失准令人震惊,较高的行业风险时刻都在影响化肥行业的后续发展。同时一些具有前瞻意识和先进管理经验的企业正在寻找一条可持续发展之路,通过不断地自我完善来规避风险,寻求更大的发展,因此化肥行业的风险研究就显得极为重要和关键。本文以中化化肥有限公司(以下简称中化化肥)为研究对象,辨识了中化化肥在经营管理过程中存在的主要风险,建立了中化化肥风险评价指标体系,应用模糊综合评价方法得到了中化化肥在经营管理过程中的安全风险等级,提出了相应的风险应对措施。首先,本文开篇简要介绍了本次研究的背景和意义,对国内外相关风险研究现状进行了论述及评述。其次,介绍了风险管理的基本概念,并对风险管理的过程进行逐一阐述,分别为风险识别、风险评价和风险应对。接着,介绍中化化肥的基本情况,把中化化肥在经营管理过程中的风险分为内外部风险进行逐一识别,其中内部风险主要包括存货风险、财务风险、业务风险和人员风险,外部风险主要包括市场风险、信用风险、政策风险和其他外部风险,并根据识别的结果得出风险指标体系。然后,根据专家建议建立风险分级原则,运用模糊综合评价法对中化化肥内外部风险进行了评估,根据风险的最大隶属度原则总结出了中化化肥各类风险等级,同时结合各类指标得出中化化肥的综合风险等级。最后,针对风险评估结果,本文对不同等级的风险提出相应的风险应对措施。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, there have been many variables in the world economic situation. The international financial crisis has caused the world economic growth model and the process of adjustment and change to be extremely complex. The domestic economy is facing the stage of reform and adjustment, which directly affects the survival and development of various industries. The chemical fertilizer industry, as one of the major industries in China that has a major bearing on the national economy and the people's livelihood, also faces various kinds of shocks. The industry is not standardized, the barriers to entry are low, the production capacity is overcapacity, the vicious competition and so on have continued to deteriorate. Higher industry risk is always affecting the follow-up development of the fertilizer industry. At the same time, some enterprises with foresight and advanced management experience are looking for a way of sustainable development, through continuous self-improvement to avoid risks and seek greater development. Therefore, the risk research of chemical fertilizer industry is very important and key. This paper takes Sinochem Fertilizer Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as Sinochem Fertilizer) as the research object, identifies the main risks in the process of operation and management of Sinochem Fertilizer, and establishes the risk evaluation index system of Sinochem Chemical Fertilizer. The safety risk grade of Sinochem chemical fertilizer in the process of operation and management was obtained by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the corresponding risk countermeasures were put forward. Firstly, the background and significance of this study are briefly introduced, and the current situation of risk research at home and abroad is discussed and reviewed. Secondly, the basic concept of risk management is introduced, and the process of risk management is described one by one, namely risk identification, risk evaluation and risk response. Then, the paper introduces the basic situation of Sinochem, classifies the risks of Sinochem into internal and external risks, including inventory risk, financial risk, business risk and personnel risk. External risk includes market risk, credit risk, policy risk and other external risk. Then, according to the expert's suggestion to establish the risk classification principle, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the internal and external risks of Sinochem chemical fertilizer, according to the principle of maximum membership degree of risk, summed up the various risk grades of Sinochem chemical fertilizer. At the same time, combined with all kinds of indicators, the comprehensive risk level of chemical fertilizer in China is obtained. Finally, according to the results of risk assessment, this paper puts forward the corresponding risk countermeasures for different levels of risk.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.72;F272.3

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