中国有色金属行业碳排放分解分析与预测
发布时间：2018-08-02 16:54
【摘要】：中国目前是全球第一大能源消费国,这主要源于持续快速增长的中国经济,它带来了能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的爆发式增长。中国在国际减排中的作用日益明显,也将面临来自国际各方面的压力。中国有色金属行业在基础建设和经济增长中有着重要位置,是高能源消耗高排放的行业。相关的节能减排政策亟待制定,对该行业的二氧化碳排放研究有重要意义。本文对中国有色金属行业2000-2011年数据进行了研究,探究了影响行业二氧化碳变化的主导因素,对各个省份降低排放业绩作出了评价,并预测了未来有色金属行业的碳排放降低潜力。首先,本文核算了有色金属业各年的二氧化碳排放量,得出了有色金属业2000-2011年的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放趋势,二者均呈现快速上升趋势,电力和原煤主导了行业能源消耗。基于核算数据,运用平均对数迪氏指数法(LMDI)方法对有色金属行业二氧化碳变化进行了分解分析,得出各个影响因素的贡献率。结果显示经济规模是导致2000-2011年期间有色金属行业二氧化碳排放上升的最主要因素,能源强度则是导致排放下降的主导因素,能源结构和二氧化碳排放系数的影响较小。其次,由于各个省份的分解分析结果数量大,分析困难,本文建立了一个分类模型将所有省份分为五个类型,对各个省份的减排业绩进行评估。分类结果表明,综合两个阶段看河北的减排业绩是最好的,重庆的减排业绩是最差的。从改善的努力上看,辽宁、吉林和四川在十一五期间相比十五期间的改善是最大的,安徽和贵州在十一五相比与十五是恶化程度最严重的。最后,建立了基于LMDI的情景预测方法,利用此方法预测了2020年有色金属行业的二氧化碳排放量,对各个因素在这期间变化的贡献率进行量化,并进一步设定两个情景用来预测有色金属行业降低二氧化碳的潜力。结果表明,有色金属行业二氧化碳排放量在不同情景下预测值存在较大差异,减排潜力巨大。而经济规模和能源强度仍然影响二氧化碳变化的驱动因素,所以控制经济规模扩张,提高能源强度时有色金属行业今后减排工作的重点。通过以上三个部分的研究,我们可以了解有色金属行业的二氧化碳排放特点,主要影响因素,未来发展趋势及减排潜力。这些可以为政府确定行业降低二氧化碳排放目标和政策提供一定支持。同时,本文的研究思路和方法也可以推广至其他行业及国家。
[Abstract]:China is now the world's largest energy consumer, largely due to its fast-growing economy, which has led to explosive growth in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. China's role in international emissions reduction is increasingly evident, and will also face international pressure. China's nonferrous metals industry plays an important role in infrastructure construction and economic growth. It is an industry with high energy consumption and high emissions. The related policies of energy saving and emission reduction need to be formulated urgently, which is of great significance to the research of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. In this paper, the data of China's nonferrous metal industry from 2000 to 2011 are studied, and the main factors influencing the change of carbon dioxide in the industry are explored, and the performance of each province in reducing emissions is evaluated. And predicted the future nonferrous metal industry carbon emission reduction potential. Firstly, this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of nonferrous metal industry in each year, and obtains the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission trend of non-ferrous metal industry from 2000 to 2011. Both of them show a rapid upward trend, and power and raw coal dominate the energy consumption of the industry. Based on the accounting data, the (LMDI) method is used to decompose and analyze the carbon dioxide changes in non-ferrous metal industry, and the contribution rate of each influencing factor is obtained. The results show that the economic scale is the most important factor leading to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2011, the energy intensity is the leading factor leading to the decrease of emissions, and the influence of energy structure and carbon dioxide emission coefficient is small. Secondly due to the large number of decomposition analysis results in each province and the difficulty of analysis this paper establishes a classification model to divide all provinces into five types to evaluate the emission reduction performance of each province. The classification results show that Hebei's emission reduction performance is the best and Chongqing's emission reduction performance is the worst. In terms of improvement efforts, Liaoning, Jilin and Sichuan had the greatest improvement in the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and Anhui and Guizhou had the most serious degree of deterioration compared with the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Finally, a scenario prediction method based on LMDI is established, which is used to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of non-ferrous metal industry in 2020, and to quantify the contribution rate of each factor during this period. Two scenarios are further developed to predict the potential of non-ferrous metals to reduce carbon dioxide. The results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of non-ferrous metal industry are different in different scenarios, and the emission reduction potential is huge. However, the economic scale and energy intensity still affect the driving factors of carbon dioxide change, so controlling the expansion of economic scale and increasing energy intensity are the key points of non-ferrous metal industry in the future emission reduction. Through the above three parts of the study, we can understand the characteristics of non-ferrous metal industry carbon dioxide emissions, the main factors, future development trends and emission reduction potential. These can provide some support for the government to set industry targets and policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time, the research ideas and methods can also be extended to other industries and countries.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X322;F426.32
本文编号：2160077
[Abstract]:China is now the world's largest energy consumer, largely due to its fast-growing economy, which has led to explosive growth in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. China's role in international emissions reduction is increasingly evident, and will also face international pressure. China's nonferrous metals industry plays an important role in infrastructure construction and economic growth. It is an industry with high energy consumption and high emissions. The related policies of energy saving and emission reduction need to be formulated urgently, which is of great significance to the research of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. In this paper, the data of China's nonferrous metal industry from 2000 to 2011 are studied, and the main factors influencing the change of carbon dioxide in the industry are explored, and the performance of each province in reducing emissions is evaluated. And predicted the future nonferrous metal industry carbon emission reduction potential. Firstly, this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of nonferrous metal industry in each year, and obtains the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission trend of non-ferrous metal industry from 2000 to 2011. Both of them show a rapid upward trend, and power and raw coal dominate the energy consumption of the industry. Based on the accounting data, the (LMDI) method is used to decompose and analyze the carbon dioxide changes in non-ferrous metal industry, and the contribution rate of each influencing factor is obtained. The results show that the economic scale is the most important factor leading to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2011, the energy intensity is the leading factor leading to the decrease of emissions, and the influence of energy structure and carbon dioxide emission coefficient is small. Secondly due to the large number of decomposition analysis results in each province and the difficulty of analysis this paper establishes a classification model to divide all provinces into five types to evaluate the emission reduction performance of each province. The classification results show that Hebei's emission reduction performance is the best and Chongqing's emission reduction performance is the worst. In terms of improvement efforts, Liaoning, Jilin and Sichuan had the greatest improvement in the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and Anhui and Guizhou had the most serious degree of deterioration compared with the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Finally, a scenario prediction method based on LMDI is established, which is used to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of non-ferrous metal industry in 2020, and to quantify the contribution rate of each factor during this period. Two scenarios are further developed to predict the potential of non-ferrous metals to reduce carbon dioxide. The results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of non-ferrous metal industry are different in different scenarios, and the emission reduction potential is huge. However, the economic scale and energy intensity still affect the driving factors of carbon dioxide change, so controlling the expansion of economic scale and increasing energy intensity are the key points of non-ferrous metal industry in the future emission reduction. Through the above three parts of the study, we can understand the characteristics of non-ferrous metal industry carbon dioxide emissions, the main factors, future development trends and emission reduction potential. These can provide some support for the government to set industry targets and policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time, the research ideas and methods can also be extended to other industries and countries.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X322;F426.32
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