我国可插电式电动汽车充电设备行业研究报告

发布时间：2018-08-11 13:57

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,我们面临着日益严峻的全球气候变暖、空气污染、不可再生的煤炭、石油和天然气等石化能源储量急剧下降等问题,节能减排和新能源的运用等热门话题已日渐成为国际社会的共识。近年来,在我国,伴随着雾霾天气而来的热议话题便是清洁能源,清洁能源在汽车领域的应用之一便是以低污染、能源可再生的电力驱动的新能源汽车。而电动汽车的代表性产品特斯拉——也成功的搅动了A股市场,油然而生出特斯拉概念。各大车企卯足了劲,多款可插电式电动汽车相继问世,从需求上来看电动汽车也有强劲的增长势头。除此之外政策上直接给予了丰厚的补贴,首都北京甚至抛出了无需排号的诱人条件。然而制约整个产业进程的桎梏依然存在——政策的双刃剑作用、电池续航能力仍有限并且成本高、政府导向的需求容量有限,然而其中最为关键的一点是配套充电设备建设不足无法刺激可插电式电动汽车的销量。可以预见,为了为电动汽车的发展提供条件、也结合国外经验、以及我国电动车消费结构的改善等因素考虑,未来将有一大批充电设备的基建项目。目前充电方式有换电站、充电站和充电桩三种方式,但实质上对应的充电设备只有充电桩和电机两大类,两类充电设备各有优劣,均能得到发展,充电设备相关的个股的投资机会也将倍受投资者的关注。本文研究的主要内容是我国可插电式电动汽车充电设备行业的投资价值。研究的主要问题包括：1、我国电动汽车的发展情况及存在的主要问题；2、从需求层面出发,看充电设备行业的增长潜力；3、从供给层面出发,看充电设备行业的产业链情况和竞争格局；4、为挖掘寻找能受益于充电设备行业增长的合适投资标的,从基本面、财务面和个股历史走势等方面出发了解个股在行业中的经营情况和自身财务特点及走势特点,还需要分析相关个股股价与股市大盘、经济增长、通货膨胀和货币政策之间的关系。通过本文的研究得出了以下四个基本结论： 1、发展电动汽车是降低我国石油对外依存度、节能减排可持续发展的要求,也是我国汽车工业转型的目标与方向；我国对电动汽车产业给予了充分的政策支持,从我国电动汽车产业的增速和汽车市场的总体容量上来看发展潜力巨大；但是我国电动汽车的发展也面临着诸多的困境,区域壁垒、技术瓶颈和消费结构都是制约电动汽车产业发展的因素,另外配套充电设备发展的滞后也是其中一大主要原因； 2、从需求层面来看,本位对比分析了各类型充电模式、方式和设备,认为各类型充电设备都有其存在的价值,电机和充电桩将按一定比例共同发展推进；虽然我国在政策上支持充电设备的建设,但是现实发展情况不容乐观；并且从国外的发展经验来看,本文对比了中美电动汽车保有量和充电设备的建造情况,以此说明充电设备的建设是我国目前亟待发展的领域。结合对消费习惯改变和车企、电网和地方政府间的三方博弈的分析,以及从技术进步、示范试点成果的推广和低养车成本来看分析,说明电动汽车增长的预期,以此说明我国充电设备将能迎来爆发式增长； 3、从供给情况来看,充电设备产业链中利润分层最丰厚的领域是充电设备整机生产环节,而整机生产企业兼具整体解决方案提供商能力、与大型电网公司的合作关系和对更广泛的销售渠道的把握才是行业中的关键成功因素；同时文章也借助了波特五力模型来分析了解充电设备行业,本文认为行业内的竞争结构为——零部件的供应商议价能力较弱但仍需注意受供需影响的原材料价格、需求量大且占充电设备建设主导地位的电网公司等购买者议价能力强而较小采购量的私人购买者议价能力弱、电气行业投资成本较高也有技术积累的壁垒但电气行业相关企业作为充电设备子行业的潜在进入者而言较为轻易所以进入威胁较大、非接触式充电方式技术尚不成熟作为替代品的威胁尚小、行业内现有竞争已较为激烈技术和渠道是衡量竞争力的两项基本标准； 4、对投资机会的把握,本文选取了行业内三家主要竞争者进行分析比较,分别从基本面入手分析了三家企业的主营业务情况和充电设备业务的开展情况——奥特迅在充电设备行业中产品线丰富、技术领先,是南方电网、中石油、中石化和中海油的充电设备主要供应商,在国家电网的建设项目中亦实现了良好的开局,在零售渠道更具优势,并且充电设备销量增速显著；国电南瑞研发及技术实力强劲,并积极与国内外企业开展合作,未来有重组并入优质充电设备企业的预期,国网背景更被特斯拉选作合作对象；许继电气也有国网背景,正在进行的重组计划将并入国内充电设备市场份额占比最大的许继电源,借助许继电气更大的平台充电设备业务将得到更大程度的发展。而良好的财务状况是保证企业能抓住充电设备行业增长机会的前提,因此本文从财务角度了解三家企业在财务风险、运营能力、盈利能力和成长性几方面的情况：三家企业财务质量均表现良好,奥特迅资金周转速度较低、期间费用较多、但成长性充足,国电南瑞各指标均比较突出是标准的白马股,许继电气通过费用控制正在不断地提高其盈利能力。当然历史走势和大中小盘股的特点也应纳入考虑,本文还借助现代计量经济学的协整检验方式考察分析股市大盘、经济增长、通货膨胀和货币政策等更多因素对股价的影响。本文认为三家企业从基本面和财务面来看都具有足够的实力参与充电设备行业的扩容竞争,而奥特迅业绩提升相对来看最为明显,加上小盘股的奥特迅股价对消息面反应敏锐,因此会有很好的投资机会；国电南瑞虽然在整个电气行业和充电设备子行业均具有较高的市场占有率,但相较于其庞大且优质的主营业务来说,充电行业发展带来的股价上涨机会并非那么明显；许继电气将并入充电设备行业市场占有率最高的许继电源,借助许继电气的大平台和许继电源的资质优异性,相信也颇具投资机会。同时实证结果表明在较长时间：奥特迅、国电南瑞的股价与大盘走势同向变动,与经济增长、通货膨胀呈反向变动关系,而许继电气股价与这三个因素的关系则恰恰相反,货币政策对股价的影响并不十分明显。因此可以根据市场股票大盘、经济增长、通货膨胀情况的变化预期,进行投资标的的选择。论文的结构由六部分组成：第一部分为引言,该部分主要描述了本文行业研究的背景及意义、研究的思路、方法和本文的框架以及本文的创新和还可以继续深入研究的方向；第二部分文献综述,该部分概述过往国内相关文献对充电设备行业发展的相关看法和观点,并从中发现过往观点并未涉及对充电设备行业的产业链和竞争结构的分析,并以此做为本文的切入点；第三部分是对电动汽车产业的分析,介绍充电设备行业发展的大前提；第四部分阐述充电设备行业的需求潜力,论证爆发式增长的可能性；第五部分分析充电设备行业的供给情况,为投资机会的找寻提供依据；第六部分对奥特迅、国电南瑞和许继电气三家企业的总体实力和行业地位及股价影响因素进行了探析,目标在于找出能受益于充电设备行业发展的投资标的。本文的主要有新意的几个要点在于： 1、本文选题新颖,行业选择了大行业中的子行业,范围适当； 2、本文研究角度符合逻辑思维习惯：1)充电设备作为电动汽车行业的标准配置是必须而且互为鸡与蛋的关系,其发展与电动汽车行业发展息息相关,因此本文选择从对电动汽车行业的分析出发,言其发展之必然性、叙其发展之现状、明其制约之困境,由困境之因推充电设备行业的机遇,由此引出关于充电设备行业的研究分析；2)对于充电设备的行业分析,从供给和需求两个角度出发,先言行业之需求潜力,由现状的不如意,看势力诸方的部署意图,加之对技术进步、试点成果推广、养车成本低等因素促进的购买需求,表明行业的投资价值,后言行业之供给情况,从供给中选出受益之最大主体；3)之于行业的投资标的选择,选股思路在于首先基本面应具备一定的产品能力和市场渠道,能在充电设备建设扩容中受益,其次看企业的财务,考察企业是否具备抓住行业机遇的基本条件,最后看历史走势以及考察个股股价的影响因素,看在行业中的受益是否能顺利反应到股价中来； 3、对行业供给面的分析,详细的分析了充电设备行业的产业链结构并寻找关键成功因素,运用波特五力模型进行竞争结构的分析,这是有别于过往文献的创新之处； 4、关于投资建议的形成,本文站在客观的角度上,从基本面和财务面指出企业的优劣,给出中肯的投资建议；同时分析了个股的走势特点,并通过实证检验了股价的影响因素,将客观因素纳入考虑以期更准确的把握投资机会。本文可以继续研究的方向：不同充电设备行业上市公司股价与影响因素的长期关系不尽相同,许继电气与各因素的长期的背离有悖经济常识,需要进一步探讨其中的原因；货币政策仅选择了贷款基准利率指标做检验也影响了结论,因此可以从进一步丰富变量、并进行短期动态关系的检验等方面上文章。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, we are facing the increasingly severe global warming, air pollution, non-renewable coal, oil and natural gas and other petrochemical energy reserves decline sharply and other issues, energy conservation and emission reduction and the use of new energy and other hot topics have become the consensus of the international community. The hot topic is clean energy. One of the applications of clean energy in the automotive field is the new energy vehicles driven by low pollution and renewable energy. Tesla, the representative product of electric vehicles, successfully stirred up the A-share market and gave birth to the Tesla concept. Electric cars have come out one after another, and there is a strong growth momentum in demand for them. In addition, the policy has directly given generous subsidies, and the capital of Beijing has even thrown out the tempting conditions of no-ranking. And the cost is high, the government-oriented demand capacity is limited, but the most critical point is the lack of supporting charging equipment can not stimulate the sales of plug-in electric vehicles. There will be a large number of infrastructure projects for charging equipment in the future. At present, there are three kinds of charging methods: power substation, charging station and charging pile. But in essence, the corresponding charging equipment is only two types: charging pile and motor. Each type of charging equipment has its own advantages and disadvantages, and can be developed. The investment opportunities of individual stocks related to charging equipment will also be greatly affected by investors. Pay attention to it.
The main content of this paper is the investment value of plug-in electric vehicle charging equipment industry in China. The main problems include: 1. the development of electric vehicles in China and the main problems; 2. the growth potential of the charging equipment industry from the demand level; 3. the supply level, the charging equipment industry. 4. In order to find suitable investment targets that can benefit from the growth of the charging equipment industry, we need to understand the operation of individual stocks in the industry, their own financial characteristics and trend characteristics from the aspects of fundamentals, finance and the historical trend of individual stocks. We also need to analyze the stock prices and the stock market. The relationship between growth, inflation and monetary policy.
The following four basic conclusions are drawn from this study.
1. Developing electric vehicles is the requirement of reducing our country's oil dependence on foreign countries, energy conservation and sustainable development, and is also the goal and direction of our country's automobile industry transformation. However, the development of electric vehicles in China is also facing many difficulties. Regional barriers, technical bottlenecks and consumption structure are the factors restricting the development of the electric vehicle industry. In addition, the lag of the development of supporting charging equipment is also one of the main reasons.
2. From the perspective of demand, this paper compares and analyzes various types of charging modes, modes and equipment, and concludes that all types of charging equipment have their value of existence, and that the motor and charging pile will be developed together in a certain proportion; although China supports the construction of charging equipment in policy, the actual development situation is not optimistic; and from abroad. From the development experience, this paper compares the quantity of electric vehicles and the construction of charging equipment between China and the United States, so as to illustrate that the construction of charging equipment is an urgent field to be developed in China. From the perspective of wide and low cost of car maintenance, this paper explains the expectation of the growth of electric vehicles, so as to show that China's charging equipment will be able to usher in explosive growth.
3. According to the supply situation, the most profitable area in the charging equipment industry chain is the production of the whole charging equipment. The key success factors in the industry are the ability of the whole equipment manufacturer to provide the overall solution, the cooperation with large power grid companies and the grasp of the wider sales channels. This paper also uses Porter's Five-Force Model to analyze the charging equipment industry. The competitive structure of the industry is that the suppliers of components have weak bargaining power but still need to pay attention to the price of raw materials affected by supply and demand. Private purchasers have weak bargaining power, high investment costs in the electrical industry and barriers to technology accumulation, but the electrical industry-related enterprises as potential entrants to the charging equipment sub-industry are relatively easy to enter the threat of greater, non-contact charging technology is not yet mature as a substitute threat is small, the industry is now Competition has been more intense technology and channels are the two basic criteria to measure competitiveness.
4. To grasp the investment opportunities, this paper selects three main competitors in the industry to analyze and compare, respectively, from the basic point of view to analyze the main business of the three enterprises and the development of charging equipment business - Otsun in the charging equipment industry, rich product lines, leading technology, Southern Power Grid, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC's main supplier of charging equipment has also achieved a good start in the construction of the State Grid, with more advantages in retail channels and remarkable growth in sales of charging equipment; CNOOC's Nanrui has a strong R&D and technological strength, and actively cooperates with domestic and foreign enterprises to reorganize and incorporate high-quality charging equipment enterprises in the future. Xu Ji Electric also has the background of the State Grid. The ongoing restructuring plan will incorporate Xu Ji, which has the largest share of the domestic charging equipment market, into the Xu Ji power supply. With the help of Xu Ji Electric's larger platform, the charging equipment business will get a greater degree of development. To seize the growth opportunities of the charging equipment industry, this article from a financial point of view to understand the three enterprises in the financial risk, operational capacity, profitability and growth of several aspects of the situation: the financial quality of the three enterprises are good, Otsun capital turnover rate is low, period costs are more, but growth is sufficient, the state's Nanrui index Xu Ji Electric is constantly improving its profitability through cost control. Of course, historical trends and the characteristics of small and medium-sized stocks should also be taken into account. This paper also uses the co-integration test of modern econometrics to examine and analyze the stock market, economic growth, inflation and monetary policy. This paper argues that the three companies have enough strength to participate in the expansion competition of the charging equipment industry from the basic and financial aspects, while the performance of OTSUN is relatively obvious, and the OTSUN share price of small-cap stocks has a keen response to the news, so there will be a good investment opportunity; Although Rui has a high market share in the entire electrical industry and the charging equipment sub-industry, but compared with its huge and high-quality main business, the development of the charging industry brought about by the stock price rise opportunity is not so obvious; Xu Ji Electric will merge into the charging equipment industry market share of the highest Xu Ji power, with the help of Xu Ji. At the same time, the empirical results show that in a long period of time: the stock price of Austron, Guodian Nanrui and the general trend of the market changes in the same direction, with economic growth, inflation in a reverse relationship, and Xu Ji Electric share price and these three factors are on the contrary, currency. The impact of the policy on the stock price is not very obvious, so we can choose the investment target according to the expectation of the stock market, economic growth and inflation.
The structure of the thesis consists of six parts:
The first part is the introduction, which mainly describes the background and significance of this industry research, research ideas, methods and framework of this paper, as well as the innovation of this paper and the direction of further research.
The second part is literature review, which summarizes the views and viewpoints on the development of rechargeable equipment industry in the past, and finds out that the past viewpoints do not involve the analysis of the industrial chain and competition structure of the rechargeable equipment industry.
The third part is the analysis of the electric vehicle industry, introducing the major premise of the development of the charging equipment industry.
The fourth part expounds the demand potential of the charging equipment industry and demonstrates the possibility of explosive growth.
The fifth part analyzes the supply situation of the charging equipment industry to provide the basis for finding investment opportunities.
The sixth part analyzes the overall strength, industry status and stock price influencing factors of the three enterprises, namely Austron, Guodian Nanrui and Xuji Electric. The aim is to find out the investment targets that can benefit from the development of the charging equipment industry.
The main points of this article are:
1, the theme of this paper is novel, and the industry chooses the sub sectors of the big industry with appropriate scope.
2. The research angle conforms to the logical thinking habits: 1) Charging equipment as the standard configuration of the electric vehicle industry is necessary and interacts with each other, and its development is closely related to the development of the electric vehicle industry. Therefore, this paper chooses to start from the analysis of the electric vehicle industry, state the inevitability of its development, narrate its current situation, and explain clearly the development of the electric vehicle industry. The predicament of its restriction is pushed by the predicament to the opportunity of the charging equipment industry, which leads to the research and analysis of the charging equipment industry; 2) For the analysis of the charging equipment industry, from the perspective of supply and demand, it predicts the demand potential of the industry, from the current situation of dissatisfaction, to see the deployment intentions of various forces, coupled with technological progress, try Point results promotion, low cost of car maintenance and other factors to promote the purchase demand, indicating the industry's investment value, after the industry's supply situation, from the supply to select the largest beneficiary; 3) for the industry's choice of investment targets, the idea of stock selection lies in the first basic should have a certain product capacity and market channels, in the construction of charging equipment. Benefit from expansion, next look at the enterprise's financial, examine whether the enterprise has the basic conditions to seize the opportunity of the industry, finally look at the historical trend and examine the stock price of the influencing factors, see whether the benefits in the industry can be smoothly reflected in the stock price;
3. Analyze the supply side of the industry, analyze the industrial chain structure of the charging equipment industry in detail and find the key success factors, and analyze the competitive structure by using the Porter's five-force model, which is different from the innovation of the past literature.
4. Regarding the formation of investment proposals, this paper points out the advantages and disadvantages of enterprises from the basic and financial aspects, and gives pertinent investment proposals. At the same time, it analyzes the trend characteristics of individual stocks, and tests the influencing factors of stock prices through empirical tests, and takes objective factors into consideration in order to grasp investment opportunities more accurately.
This paper can continue to study the direction: the long-term relationship between the stock price of Listed Companies in different charging equipment industries and the influencing factors is not the same, Xu Ji Electric's long-term deviation from the various factors is contrary to economic common sense, which needs to be further explored; the monetary policy only selects the benchmark interest rate indicators of loans as the test also affects the conclusion. Therefore, we can further enrich the variables and test the short-term dynamic relationship.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.6

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