回弹效应视角下技术进步对我国能源消费变动影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-15 13:11

【摘要】：当前我国正面对煤炭等常规能源濒临枯竭的危机,同时非常规能源如绿色环保能源的应用和推广并不理想,能源消费与生产的巨大缺口给我国经济可持续发展带来巨大的威胁。自改革开放以来,我国能源消耗量突飞猛涨。这不仅给我国创造出丰富的物质,而且也给我国带来了如雾霾等严重环境危机,甚至对我国居民生存产生了致命的威胁。因此,如何在不破坏我国经济健康发展的基础上,竭尽所能地有效利用我国有限的能源并使我国能源消耗降速,这已成为我国政府需要面对的最大问题之一。近些年,我国政府大力开展“节能减排”来应对能源危机,并将技术进步作为节能减排的主要手段,但是这种措施却并未取得期待的效果。因此,有必要从理论和是实证上,对技术进步对能源消费变动影响展开深入研究。首先,在梳理技术进步对能源消费变动影响的国内外研究成果后,发现回弹效应视角下技术进步对能源消费变动影响的研究较少,尤其是国内学者在这一领域还处于初级阶段,相关理论和实证研究不严谨,有很大的改善空间。其次,在论文的第二章节,文章介绍了所需要的理论基础,尤其是研究的思路-能源回弹效应过程,并对我国能源消费现状进行深入地分析。之后便展开了回弹效应视角下技术进步对我国能源消费变动影响的研究-技术进步贡献率测算、技术导致能源消费减少量实证研究、技术进步导致能源消费增加量实证研究。在技术进步贡献率测算过程中,研究采用了索洛余值法,建立改进的C-D模型,进行回归计量。在技术进步导致能源消费减少量实证研究中,相对于其他学者,并没有将能源强度变化完全归功于技术进步,而是利用了AMD加法分解模型测算出能源强度变化中的技术效应值,进而更加准确地测算了技术进步导致能源消费减少量。在分别测算出技术进步导致能源消费减少量和增加量并分析其结果后,研究最终测算出能源回弹效应大小,测算结果表明：我国能源回弹效应先增后减。尤其是近些年,我国能源回弹效应都超过了100%,应引起政府部门重视。最后,在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,得出研究结论,并给出降低我国能源回弹效应的政策建议：(1)技术进步能有利于降低我国的能源消费,但是只有对技术创新加以保护,尤其是完善专利保护制度,才能充分发挥技术进步对节能降耗的作用,尤其是节能企业自主创新能够有效地促进节能降耗。(2)明确、细分、落实、考核我国节能目标,使科技节能政策充分发挥其作用。(3)推动能源供给革命,改变我国能源生产水平总体落后的现状,建立多元能源供应体系,尤其是大力发展现代能源,改善我国能源消费结构现状,降低对常规能源的消耗。
[Abstract]:At present, our country is facing the crisis that coal and other conventional energy sources are on the verge of exhaustion. Meanwhile, the application and promotion of unconventional energy such as green environmental protection energy is not ideal. The huge gap of energy consumption and production brings great threat to the sustainable development of our economy. Since the reform and opening up, China's energy consumption has skyrocketed. This not only creates rich material for our country, but also brings serious environmental crisis such as haze to our country, and even brings a fatal threat to the survival of our residents. Therefore, how to make full use of our limited energy and reduce the speed of energy consumption on the basis of not destroying the healthy development of our economy has become one of the biggest problems that our government has to face. In recent years, our government has vigorously carried out "energy saving and emission reduction" to deal with the energy crisis, and technology progress as the main means of energy saving and emission reduction, but this measure has not achieved the desired results. Therefore, it is necessary to study the effect of technological progress on energy consumption change theoretically and empirically. First of all, after combing the domestic and foreign research results of the impact of technological progress on energy consumption change, we find that there is little research on the impact of technology progress on energy consumption change from the perspective of rebound effect, especially the domestic scholars are still in the primary stage in this field. Relevant theoretical and empirical research is not rigorous, there is a lot of room for improvement. Secondly, in the second chapter, the paper introduces the needed theoretical basis, especially the thought of energy springback effect, and analyzes the current situation of energy consumption in China. Then the research on the impact of technological progress on energy consumption change in China from the perspective of rebound effect is carried out, which includes the measurement of contribution rate of technological progress, the empirical study of reducing energy consumption caused by technology, and the empirical study of increasing energy consumption caused by technological progress. In the process of measuring the contribution rate of technological progress, Solow residual value method is used to establish an improved C-D model and to carry out regression measurement. In the empirical study of energy consumption reduction caused by technological progress, compared with other scholars, the change of energy intensity is not entirely attributed to technological progress, but the technical effect value of energy intensity change is calculated by using AMD addition decomposition model. And then more accurately measure the amount of energy consumption reduced as a result of technological progress. After calculating the decrease and increase of energy consumption caused by technological progress and analyzing the results, the paper finally calculates the energy springback effect. The result shows that the energy springback effect in our country increases first and then decreases. Especially in recent years, the rebound effect of energy in China has exceeded 100, which should be taken seriously by government departments. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws a conclusion, and gives some policy suggestions to reduce the rebound effect of energy in China: (1) technological progress can help to reduce energy consumption in China, but only to protect technological innovation. In particular, to improve the patent protection system, we can give full play to the role of technological progress in energy conservation and consumption reduction, especially the independent innovation of energy-saving enterprises can effectively promote energy conservation and consumption reduction. (3) to promote the revolution of energy supply, to change the overall backward situation of energy production in China, to establish a pluralistic energy supply system, especially to develop modern energy, Improve the current situation of energy consumption structure and reduce the consumption of conventional energy.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2

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