基于合成指数模型的中国煤炭行业周期波动研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 10:10

【摘要】：煤炭在中国一次性能源生产和消费中均占主导位置,同时,我国煤炭生产和消费量均居世界第一位。随着中国经济发展进入新常态,煤炭行业发展趋势及其周期性波动特征成为关注的热点。合成指数分析法是当前最为广泛地分析行业和产业线性波动的研究方法。本文采用合成指数模型,结合交叉相关系数分析法,构建我国煤炭行业周期波动的模型,研究结果表明,2003-2014年我国煤炭行业经历了3次较为明显的上升期和下降期,2014年延续2011年末以来市场低位徘徊的趋势。波动周期呈现不对称性和陡升缓降,两次出现右边长尾;煤炭行业周期波动与宏观经济波动关系紧密。从煤炭行业周期波动特征的研究来看,全面深化改革,加快结构调整,把握发展机遇,拓展对外合作,运用好金融因素,防范过渡金融化风险,主动适应经济发展新常态成为我国煤炭行业健康有序发展的重要任务。
[Abstract]:Coal plays a leading role in the production and consumption of one-off energy in China. At the same time, China's coal production and consumption rank first in the world. With the development of China's economy entering the new normal, the development trend of coal industry and its cyclical fluctuation characteristics have become the focus of attention. Composite index analysis is the most widely used research method to analyze the linear fluctuation of industry and industry. In this paper, the composite index model and cross-correlation coefficient analysis are used to construct the model of the cycle fluctuation of coal industry in China. The results show that China's coal industry experienced three distinct upward and downward periods from 2003 to 2014, and the trend of market low hovering since the end of 2011 was continued in 2014. The fluctuation cycle presents asymmetry and steep rise and fall, and twice appears right long tail, while the coal industry cycle fluctuation is closely related to macroeconomic fluctuation. From the study of the characteristics of the coal industry cycle fluctuation, we should deepen the reform comprehensively, speed up the structural adjustment, grasp the development opportunities, expand foreign cooperation, make good use of financial factors, and guard against the risk of transitional financialization. Actively adapting to the new normal of economic development has become an important task for the healthy and orderly development of China's coal industry.
【作者单位】：中国国土资源经济研究院;中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所;
【基金】：国土资源部地质调查项目:“重要矿产资源市场监测与综合评价”(12120113093200),“矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究”(12120114093501),“中国矿产资源配置支持平台建设与动态跟踪部署”(12120113901800)
【分类号】：F426.21

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