中国石油企业海外经营重大风险预警机制研究
发布时间：2018-08-24 07:59
【摘要】：近年来随着世界主权债务危机持续蔓延，全球经济复苏乏力。中国石油企业抓住这一有利时机，加快海外布局。然而外部环境错综复杂，局部地区冲突不断；再加上自身海外运营经验缺乏，，部分企业盲目冒进，增加了中国石油企业海外经营的不确定性，一旦遭遇重大风险，对于企业的影响将是致命的。因此，从企业自身长远发展和国家能源战略安全考虑，构建中国石油企业海外经营重大风险预警机制已迫在眉睫。 本文将中国石油企业海外经营面临的重大风险作为研究对象，以构建风险预警机制为研究重点，综合运用模糊数学、系统论、控制论、风险管理及风险预警理论相关知识，通过对中国石油企业海外投资经营面临的重大风险的剖析，归纳出重大风险的三个主要特征，进而对这些重大风险逐一进行全面细致分析。通过构建石油企业重大风险预警指标体系和多级模糊综合评价模型，组建重大风险响应机制并设计出中国石油企业海外经营重大风险预警机制。最后实证分析了中缅油气管道项目（缅甸段）运营的风险状态并提出应对策略。 通过建立中国石油企业海外经营重大风险预警机制，企业即能有效识别和预控重大风险，这对提升中国石油企业海外经营实力具有重要的借鉴和指导意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as the world sovereign debt crisis continues to spread, the global economic recovery is weak. Chinese oil enterprises seize this favorable opportunity to speed up the overseas layout. However, the external environment is intricate and local conflicts continue; coupled with the lack of overseas operation experience of some enterprises, some enterprises blindly advance, which increases the uncertainty of overseas operations of Chinese oil enterprises. Once they encounter major risks, The impact on the business will be fatal. Therefore, considering the long-term development of the enterprises and the national energy strategic security, it is urgent to construct a major risk warning mechanism for the overseas operations of Chinese oil enterprises. In this paper, the major risks faced by Chinese oil enterprises overseas are taken as the research object, and the key point of the study is to construct a risk warning mechanism. The relevant knowledge of fuzzy mathematics, system theory, cybernetics, risk management and risk warning theory is used synthetically. Through the analysis of the major risks faced by Chinese petroleum enterprises overseas investment management, three main characteristics of the major risks are summed up, and then the major risks are analyzed one by one. By constructing the index system of major risk warning and the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the major risk response mechanism and the major risk warning mechanism of overseas management of Chinese oil enterprises are designed. Finally, the paper analyzes the risk state of Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project (Burma section) and puts forward countermeasures. By establishing a warning mechanism for major risks in overseas operations of Chinese petroleum enterprises, the enterprises can effectively identify and control major risks, which has important reference and guidance significance for enhancing the overseas management strength of Chinese oil enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22;F272.3
本文编号：2200146
[Abstract]:In recent years, as the world sovereign debt crisis continues to spread, the global economic recovery is weak. Chinese oil enterprises seize this favorable opportunity to speed up the overseas layout. However, the external environment is intricate and local conflicts continue; coupled with the lack of overseas operation experience of some enterprises, some enterprises blindly advance, which increases the uncertainty of overseas operations of Chinese oil enterprises. Once they encounter major risks, The impact on the business will be fatal. Therefore, considering the long-term development of the enterprises and the national energy strategic security, it is urgent to construct a major risk warning mechanism for the overseas operations of Chinese oil enterprises. In this paper, the major risks faced by Chinese oil enterprises overseas are taken as the research object, and the key point of the study is to construct a risk warning mechanism. The relevant knowledge of fuzzy mathematics, system theory, cybernetics, risk management and risk warning theory is used synthetically. Through the analysis of the major risks faced by Chinese petroleum enterprises overseas investment management, three main characteristics of the major risks are summed up, and then the major risks are analyzed one by one. By constructing the index system of major risk warning and the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the major risk response mechanism and the major risk warning mechanism of overseas management of Chinese oil enterprises are designed. Finally, the paper analyzes the risk state of Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project (Burma section) and puts forward countermeasures. By establishing a warning mechanism for major risks in overseas operations of Chinese petroleum enterprises, the enterprises can effectively identify and control major risks, which has important reference and guidance significance for enhancing the overseas management strength of Chinese oil enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22;F272.3
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