大型复杂装备研制项目风险测度研究
发布时间：2018-09-05 09:42
【摘要】：作为提升国家科技竞争力和综合国力的重要手段，加强大型复杂装备的研制已被提升至国家战略高度。大型复杂装备的研制项目复杂性高、系统性强、一旦发生事故将造成严重后果，项目风险管理水平的高低已成为项目能否成功的主要决定因素之一。风险评估是项目风险管理过程中的关键环节，而风险测度是风险评估的重要环节，因此，风险测度对大型复杂装备的研制项目风险管理水平起着举足轻重的作用。由于大型装备研制项目风险的多样性、多层次性、潜在性和非线性等特征，大型装备研制项目各风险因素之间呈现出网络化、多层次化的结构特征，故以往的直接将项目总风险分解为独立递阶层次结构，然后再进行综合集成的风险评估方法不再符合实际情况，亟需探索新的风险评估与测度方法来解决大型复杂装备研制项目的风险测度问题。 首先，构建大型复杂装备研制项目分析框架。分析大型复杂装备研制项目复杂性及风险特征，构建项目多层次里程碑协同研制过程的MMCD（Multi-level Milestone CooperationDeveloping）网络系统，并以此为分析框架，探寻大型复杂装备研制项目风险发生机理。 其次，研究大型复杂装备研制项目风险指数测度问题。为科学表征MMCD网络系统中里程碑“事件树”子系统风险指数，构建主体-客体局中人极大熵博弈模型，利用各博弈方收益值的映射关系表征里程碑风险指数；分析里程碑“事件树”子系统的协同工作关系逻辑本质并设计连接结点，设计风险指数测度模型，，将里程碑风险指数进行集结从而得到整个研制项目的风险指数。 最后，设计大型复杂装备研制项目风险“谱系图”。建立风险等级灰色聚类模型，将风险指数进行风险等级划分；根据测算所得里程碑事件树子系统风险指数设计项目风险“谱系图”，据此识别项目内部的高风险里程碑。 本文考虑项目不同层次粒度和制造链上流程关系，构建基于多层次事件搜索的项目里程碑协同研制过程MMCD网络系统，构建大型复杂装备研制项目风险指数测度模型，科学估算风险强度，有利于风险等级判断与评估，能够为风险控制提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:As an important means to enhance national scientific and technological competitiveness and comprehensive national strength, strengthening the development of large and complex equipment has been promoted to the national strategic level. The development of large-scale complex equipment is complex and systematic. Once an accident occurs, the level of project risk management has become one of the main determinants of the success of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of project risk management, and risk measurement is an important part of risk assessment. Therefore, risk measurement plays an important role in the level of risk management of large-scale complex equipment development project. Because of the diversity, multi-level, potentiality and nonlinearity of the risk of large-scale equipment development project, the risk factors of large-scale equipment development project present the structural characteristics of networking and multi-level. Therefore, the previous risk assessment method, which directly decomposes the total project risk into an independent hierarchical structure, and then carries out comprehensive integration, is no longer in line with the actual situation. It is urgent to explore new methods of risk assessment and measurement to solve the problem of risk measurement for large-scale complex equipment development projects. First of all, a large complex equipment development project analysis framework. This paper analyzes the complexity and risk characteristics of large-scale complex equipment development projects, constructs the MMCD (Multi-level Milestone CooperationDeveloping) network system of multi-level milestone collaborative development process, and uses it as an analytical framework to explore the risk occurrence mechanism of large-scale complex equipment development projects. Secondly, the risk index measurement of large complex equipment development project is studied. In order to represent the milestone "event tree" subsystem risk index in MMCD network system scientifically, the human maximum entropy game model in the subject-guest bureau is constructed, and the milestone risk index is represented by the mapping relation of the benefit value of each game party. The logical nature of cooperative work relationship of milestone "event tree" subsystem is analyzed, and the connection node is designed. The risk index measurement model is designed, and the milestone risk index is assembled to obtain the risk index of the whole project. Finally, the risk of designing large-scale complex equipment development project "pedigree diagram" is designed. The grey clustering model of risk grade is established, the risk index is divided into risk grades, and the "pedigree diagram" of project risk is designed according to the risk index of milestone event tree subsystem, according to which the high risk milestone within the project is identified. In this paper, considering the granularity of different levels of the project and the relationship between the processes in the manufacturing chain, a project milestone collaborative development process (MMCD) network system based on multi-level event search is constructed, and the risk index measurement model of large-scale complex equipment development project is constructed. Scientific estimation of risk intensity is beneficial to the judgment and evaluation of risk grade and can provide scientific basis for risk control.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272.3;F416.4
本文编号：2223901
[Abstract]:As an important means to enhance national scientific and technological competitiveness and comprehensive national strength, strengthening the development of large and complex equipment has been promoted to the national strategic level. The development of large-scale complex equipment is complex and systematic. Once an accident occurs, the level of project risk management has become one of the main determinants of the success of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of project risk management, and risk measurement is an important part of risk assessment. Therefore, risk measurement plays an important role in the level of risk management of large-scale complex equipment development project. Because of the diversity, multi-level, potentiality and nonlinearity of the risk of large-scale equipment development project, the risk factors of large-scale equipment development project present the structural characteristics of networking and multi-level. Therefore, the previous risk assessment method, which directly decomposes the total project risk into an independent hierarchical structure, and then carries out comprehensive integration, is no longer in line with the actual situation. It is urgent to explore new methods of risk assessment and measurement to solve the problem of risk measurement for large-scale complex equipment development projects. First of all, a large complex equipment development project analysis framework. This paper analyzes the complexity and risk characteristics of large-scale complex equipment development projects, constructs the MMCD (Multi-level Milestone CooperationDeveloping) network system of multi-level milestone collaborative development process, and uses it as an analytical framework to explore the risk occurrence mechanism of large-scale complex equipment development projects. Secondly, the risk index measurement of large complex equipment development project is studied. In order to represent the milestone "event tree" subsystem risk index in MMCD network system scientifically, the human maximum entropy game model in the subject-guest bureau is constructed, and the milestone risk index is represented by the mapping relation of the benefit value of each game party. The logical nature of cooperative work relationship of milestone "event tree" subsystem is analyzed, and the connection node is designed. The risk index measurement model is designed, and the milestone risk index is assembled to obtain the risk index of the whole project. Finally, the risk of designing large-scale complex equipment development project "pedigree diagram" is designed. The grey clustering model of risk grade is established, the risk index is divided into risk grades, and the "pedigree diagram" of project risk is designed according to the risk index of milestone event tree subsystem, according to which the high risk milestone within the project is identified. In this paper, considering the granularity of different levels of the project and the relationship between the processes in the manufacturing chain, a project milestone collaborative development process (MMCD) network system based on multi-level event search is constructed, and the risk index measurement model of large-scale complex equipment development project is constructed. Scientific estimation of risk intensity is beneficial to the judgment and evaluation of risk grade and can provide scientific basis for risk control.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272.3;F416.4
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