中国海洋油气业产业安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-13 05:55

【摘要】：随着内陆油气资源告急和海洋油气产业兴起，人们对海洋油气的需求越来越大，海洋油气产业面临新的重大发展机会。然而，我国海洋油气业目前更多是粗放式的发展模式，高速发展的背后隐藏着安全问题。海洋油气产业的安全关系到我国经济的长远发展，是我国经济安全的重要基础。为了促进我国海洋经济的正常发展，保证国家经济利益不受到严重侵害，就必须要确保我国海洋油气产业的安全。本文一改传统产业安全评价宏观的探索方式，为了研究我国海洋油气业产业安全状态，分别从产业生存环境，产业国际竞争力，产业控制力三个方面入手，分别进行量化评价。得出，我国海洋油气业产业环境较不安全、产业国际竞争力不安全、产业控制力比较安全。首先选取2007至2011年海洋油气业相关数据，利用可拓物元模型，对我国海洋油气业产业环境进行安全评估，结果表明，从2007年至2011年我国海洋油气业产业环境大部分时间处于较不安全状态，2008年更是处于不安全状态，五年来产业环境安全整体处于较低水平，系统不够稳定。单个指标来看，政府软环境、海洋石油勘探污水入海值、海洋高校硕士及以上人数增长率、产业就业率成为海洋油气产业环境安全的制约因素，改善该状况迫在眉睫。随后从海洋油气业当前竞争能力、海洋油气业未来竞争潜力、海洋油气业产业竞争环境三个方面入手，利用灰色评价法，选取美国、日本、澳大利亚、英国、挪威、委内瑞拉6个国家与中国进行海洋油气业产业国际竞争力对比分析，，得出海洋油气业产业竞争力总体排名顺序是：美国、英国、委内瑞拉、澳大利亚、日本、中国、挪威。结果表明，我国海洋油气业产业国际竞争力总体相对较弱，处于下游水平，单方面进行比较，当前竞争实力较弱，竞争环境较弱，但存在较大发展潜力。在海洋油气业产业控制力评价中，选取石油资源产业外资市场控制率、石油资源产业外资品牌拥有率、受控制企业外资国别集中度、油气资源产业进口对外依存度、油气资源产业出口对外依存度、油气资源产业资本对外依存度六个指标。利用线性模型，得出我国海洋油气业产业控制力总体得分为70.5，处于较安全的状态。但是油气资源产业进口对外依存度得分为18，处于不安全状态，出口对外依存度得分为41，处于临界安全，应当引起注意，不可放松警惕。发达国家在维护海洋油气业产业安全方面值得我国学习借鉴，通过分析美国的半官半民模式、日本的科技护海模式、韩国的强政府模式、澳大利亚的综合管理模式，发现海洋油气强国都重视科学技术发展和创新，提倡海洋油气业产业支撑的科技化；注重法律法规对海洋油气业产业安全的规法引导作用。以此为我国海洋油气业的发展提供对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the urgent development of inland oil and gas resources and the rise of offshore oil and gas industry, the demand for offshore oil and gas is increasing, and the offshore oil and gas industry is facing new important development opportunities. However, China's offshore oil and gas industry is now more extensive development model, behind the rapid development of hidden safety problems. The safety of offshore oil and gas industry is related to the long-term development of China's economy and is the important foundation of our country's economic security. In order to promote the normal development of China's marine economy and ensure that the national economic interests are not seriously infringed, it is necessary to ensure the safety of China's marine oil and gas industry. In order to study the industrial safety status of China's offshore oil and gas industry, this paper changes the traditional exploration mode of industrial safety evaluation and carries out quantitative evaluation from three aspects: industrial survival environment, industrial international competitiveness and industrial control power. It is concluded that China's marine oil and gas industry is unsafe in its industrial environment, unsafe in its international competitiveness and relatively safe in industrial control. Firstly, the relevant data of offshore oil and gas industry from 2007 to 2011 are selected to evaluate the safety of marine oil and gas industry environment in China by using extension matter-element model. The results show that, From 2007 to 2011, the industrial environment of China's offshore oil and gas industry is in a relatively unsafe state for most of the time, especially in 2008. In the past five years, the overall industrial environment security is at a relatively low level, and the system is not stable enough. In a single index, the soft environment of the government, the value of the offshore oil exploration sewage, the growth rate of the number of marine colleges and universities and the employment rate of the industry become the restricting factors of the environmental safety of the offshore oil and gas industry, so it is urgent to improve the situation. Then, starting with the current competitiveness of the offshore oil and gas industry, the future competitive potential of the offshore oil and gas industry, and the competitive environment of the offshore oil and gas industry, using the grey evaluation method, this paper selects the United States, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, Norway, the United States, Japan, Australia, Britain, Norway. Through comparative analysis of the international competitiveness of offshore oil and gas industry between Venezuela and China, it is concluded that the overall ranking order of the competitiveness of offshore oil and gas industry is: United States, Britain, Venezuela, Australia, Japan, China, Norway. The results show that the international competitiveness of China's offshore oil and gas industry is relatively weak, which is in the downstream level. Compared unilaterally, the current competitive strength is weaker and the competitive environment is weak, but there is a great potential for development. In the evaluation of the control power of offshore oil and gas industry, the foreign capital market control rate of oil and gas industry, the foreign capital brand ownership rate of oil and gas industry, the national concentration of foreign capital of controlled enterprises, the degree of dependence of oil and gas resources industry import on foreign countries are selected. Oil and gas resources industry export external dependence degree, oil and gas resources industry capital external dependence degree six indexes. By using the linear model, the overall score of China's offshore oil and gas industry control is 70.5, which is in a relatively safe state. But the oil and gas resources industry import foreign dependence degree score is 18, is in the unsafe state, the export external dependence degree score is 41, is in the critical safety, should cause the attention, must not relax the vigilance. The developed countries are worthy of learning from China in maintaining the safety of the offshore oil and gas industry. By analyzing the semi-official and semi-civilian model of the United States, the Japanese model of protecting the sea by science and technology, the strong government model of South Korea and the comprehensive management model of Australia, It is found that all the powerful marine oil and gas countries attach importance to the development and innovation of science and technology, advocate the scientific and technological support of the offshore oil and gas industry, and attach importance to the role of laws and regulations in guiding the safety of the offshore oil and gas industry. In order to provide countermeasures for the development of China's offshore oil and gas industry.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22

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