美国再工业化战略效果分析
发布时间：2018-09-13 16:46
【摘要】：20世纪七八十年代,以美国为首的各主要资本主义国家都出现了经济滞胀和衰退,制造业在国内的地位停滞不前甚至出现倒退,美国学界纷纷将这种现象称为“去工业化”,并认为只有重振制造业在国民经济中的地位才能缓解去工业化带来的困境,即实施再工业化战略。因此,要准确理解再工业化的含义,不得不从认识去工业化开始。其中,产业空心化与去工业化往往被误认为是同一概念,而再工业化概念也经常和工业政策纠缠不清,因此本文在界定再工业化定义之前,对这两组概念作出了区分。简要来说,笔者认为产业空心化是扭曲的、相对的去工业化,是包含消极评价的去工业化。而再工业化和工业政策的区别在于,再工业化涉及的仅仅是微观层面的工业政策,而非宏观上的工业政策。据此,可将再工业化定义为：在发达国家或地区的工业尤其是制造业在国民经济中的地位不断降低、制成品在国际市场上竞争力相对下降的情况下,发达国家或地区重新充实工业基础,发展先进制造业的过程或战略。 三十年后,实施再工业化战略的呼声再次席卷欧美,奥巴马自2009年上任以后,更是将其作为美国经济增长战略中的重中之重,并出台了一系列与再工业化相关的重大经济政策。笔者认为,奥巴马实施再工业化战略的短期目的在于解决失业问题并改善财政和贸易双赤字现象。从长远看,实施该战略则在于通过发展先进制造业维持美国在世界制造业领域的领先地位。而从根本上看,这却很可能只是源于凯恩斯主义与新自由主义经济思潮在美国交替循环的“惯性”。 尽管美国再工业化问题越来越吸引学者们的关注和研究,但美国是否已经实施再工业化战略或者说再工业化战略的效果是否已经初步显现,仍然口说无凭。本文从再工业化的内涵出发,确定了四个度量标准,即制造业对外直接投资的减少、制造业产值的增加、制造业就业人数的增加以及制成品净出口的增加。通过对这几个度量标准的分析,可以看出美国再工业化战略的实施倾向和实施效果在总体上并不明显,只有在2009年到2010年期间略显端倪,而这很有可能是金融危机后美国经济复苏的表现,没有任何证据表明这恰恰是再工业化战略的作用。 对美国再工业化战略效果不彰的原因,笔者尝试从以下四个方面作出了解释：一是因为美国并未正在对该战略付诸实施,而仅仅是出于奥巴马政治作秀的需要；二是该战略在实施的过程中遇到了很多牵制,比如政治体制的牵制、财政压力、制造业高端人才的匮乏等国内限制性因素,也有吸引外资困难、受欧债危机等影响、美国的世界经济权势地位下降等外部限制性因素；三是该战略本身在理论上并不具备改变美国的贸易逆差和事业现状的能力；四是再工业化战略效果具有长期性,短期内难以观察和评价。 最后,本文的结论是美国再工业化战略效果不彰根源于再工业化战略中促进传统制造业回流的思路违背了全球化浪潮。再工业化战略要想发挥其效就只能在发展先进制造业上下功夫。另外,再工业化战略不该将目标设定为短期内解决就业和贸易的问题,而应该将其作为重新平衡美国产业结构、促进美国经济持续发展的长久之计。
[Abstract]:In the 1970s and 1980s, the major capitalist countries led by the United States experienced economic stagnation and recession, and the status of manufacturing industry in China stagnated or even retrogressed. The American academic circles have called this phenomenon "de-industrialization", and believe that only by reviving the status of manufacturing industry in the national economy can de-industrialization be alleviated. The dilemma brought about by industrialization is to implement the strategy of re-industrialization. Therefore, to understand the meaning of re-industrialization accurately, we have to start with the understanding of de-industrialization. In brief, the author thinks that the industry hollowing is distorted, the relative de-industrialization is the de-industrialization with negative evaluation. The difference between the re-industrialization and the industrial policy is that the re-industrialization involves only the micro-level industrial policy, not the macro-level industrial policy. Re-industrialization is defined as the process or strategy of developing countries or regions to refill their industrial base and develop advanced manufacturing industries under the circumstances that the status of industries, especially manufacturing industries, in the national economy is declining and the competitiveness of manufactured goods in the international market is relatively declining.
Thirty years later, the call for the implementation of the Reindustrialization strategy swept across Europe and the United States again. Since taking office in 2009, Obama has made it the top priority of the U.S. economic growth strategy and issued a series of major economic policies related to reindustrialization. In the long run, the implementation of the strategy will be to maintain the leading position of the United States in the world's manufacturing sector through the development of advanced manufacturing.
Although the issue of American re-industrialization has attracted more and more attention and research from scholars, it is still doubtful whether the effect of the U.S. re-industrialization strategy has already appeared or not. Through the analysis of these metrics, we can see that the implementation tendency and effect of the U.S. Reindustrialization strategy is not obvious on the whole, only in the period from 2009 to 2010 shows a little bit, which is likely to be a financial crisis. There is no evidence that this is exactly the role of the re industrialization strategy.
The author tries to explain the reasons for the ineffectiveness of the American re-industrialization strategy from the following four aspects: firstly, the United States is not implementing the strategy, but only for the needs of Obama's political show; secondly, the strategy encountered many constraints in the implementation process, such as political restraints, fiscal constraints. Pressure, lack of high-end manufacturing talents and other domestic constraints, but also to attract foreign investment difficulties, the impact of the European debt crisis, the decline of U.S. economic power in the world and other external constraints; third, the strategy itself does not theoretically have the ability to change the U.S. trade deficit and career status; fourth, the re-industrialization war. The effect is long term and is difficult to observe and evaluate in the short term.
Finally, the conclusion of this paper is that the ineffectiveness of the American re-industrialization strategy is rooted in the fact that the idea of promoting the return of traditional manufacturing industry in the re-industrialization strategy violates the tide of globalization. Employment and trade issues should be regarded as a long-term measure to rebalance the industrial structure of the United States and promote its sustained economic development.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F471.2
本文编号：2241757
[Abstract]:In the 1970s and 1980s, the major capitalist countries led by the United States experienced economic stagnation and recession, and the status of manufacturing industry in China stagnated or even retrogressed. The American academic circles have called this phenomenon "de-industrialization", and believe that only by reviving the status of manufacturing industry in the national economy can de-industrialization be alleviated. The dilemma brought about by industrialization is to implement the strategy of re-industrialization. Therefore, to understand the meaning of re-industrialization accurately, we have to start with the understanding of de-industrialization. In brief, the author thinks that the industry hollowing is distorted, the relative de-industrialization is the de-industrialization with negative evaluation. The difference between the re-industrialization and the industrial policy is that the re-industrialization involves only the micro-level industrial policy, not the macro-level industrial policy. Re-industrialization is defined as the process or strategy of developing countries or regions to refill their industrial base and develop advanced manufacturing industries under the circumstances that the status of industries, especially manufacturing industries, in the national economy is declining and the competitiveness of manufactured goods in the international market is relatively declining.
Thirty years later, the call for the implementation of the Reindustrialization strategy swept across Europe and the United States again. Since taking office in 2009, Obama has made it the top priority of the U.S. economic growth strategy and issued a series of major economic policies related to reindustrialization. In the long run, the implementation of the strategy will be to maintain the leading position of the United States in the world's manufacturing sector through the development of advanced manufacturing.
Although the issue of American re-industrialization has attracted more and more attention and research from scholars, it is still doubtful whether the effect of the U.S. re-industrialization strategy has already appeared or not. Through the analysis of these metrics, we can see that the implementation tendency and effect of the U.S. Reindustrialization strategy is not obvious on the whole, only in the period from 2009 to 2010 shows a little bit, which is likely to be a financial crisis. There is no evidence that this is exactly the role of the re industrialization strategy.
The author tries to explain the reasons for the ineffectiveness of the American re-industrialization strategy from the following four aspects: firstly, the United States is not implementing the strategy, but only for the needs of Obama's political show; secondly, the strategy encountered many constraints in the implementation process, such as political restraints, fiscal constraints. Pressure, lack of high-end manufacturing talents and other domestic constraints, but also to attract foreign investment difficulties, the impact of the European debt crisis, the decline of U.S. economic power in the world and other external constraints; third, the strategy itself does not theoretically have the ability to change the U.S. trade deficit and career status; fourth, the re-industrialization war. The effect is long term and is difficult to observe and evaluate in the short term.
Finally, the conclusion of this paper is that the ineffectiveness of the American re-industrialization strategy is rooted in the fact that the idea of promoting the return of traditional manufacturing industry in the re-industrialization strategy violates the tide of globalization. Employment and trade issues should be regarded as a long-term measure to rebalance the industrial structure of the United States and promote its sustained economic development.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F471.2
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