我国家用轿车产品市场需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 20:28

【摘要】：进入二十一世纪以来，我国居民的人均可支配收入大幅增长，多样化的需求也在逐步显现，汽车也走进千家万户。人们对家用轿车的需求日益膨胀，，因此有关我国家用轿车市场需求的研究预测便显得至关重要。为了满足消费者多样化的需求，汽车行业亦不断地制定更贴合实际的产销计划，然而国际市场不断推陈出新出诸多性能优越的车型，挤占了部分国内的家用轿车市场。因此对家用轿车市场的研究预测也便显得十分错综复杂。本文对比了国内外家用轿车市场的发展情况，重点以韩国现代汽车公司为例，研究了我国轿车市场的发展趋势及存在的问题。并在前人的基础上，通过横向和纵向的研究预测了我国家用轿车市场的发展趋势。在横向研究方面，本文通过对31个省份及直辖市的城镇百户家庭汽车保有量及其影响因素的横截面数据进行弹性分析，确定了影响我国家用轿车市场需求的主要影响因素及该影响因素的变动趋势。在纵向研究方面，本文构建了多元的Logistic模型，通过2003－2013年31个省份的时间序列数据的经验分析，分别预测了未来5年我国各省份家用轿车市场需求的变动趋势。得出了我国家用轿车需求依旧十分旺盛，正处于快速增长期的结论。最后，从重点扶持公共交通、优先发展轨道交通、积极倡导绿色出行三个角度提出政策建议，以确保我国家用轿车产业的平稳发展和道路资源的合理利用。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents has increased dramatically, the diversified demand is also gradually emerging, and the automobile has also entered thousands of households. The demand for domestic cars is expanding day by day, so it is very important to study and forecast the market demand of domestic cars in China. In order to meet the diversified needs of consumers, the automobile industry has constantly made more realistic production and marketing plans. However, the international market has constantly introduced a lot of superior models, which has occupied part of the domestic car market. Therefore, the research and prediction of the domestic car market is very complicated. This paper compares the development of domestic car market at home and abroad. Taking Hyundai Automobile Company of Korea as an example, the development trend and existing problems of domestic car market are studied. On the basis of previous studies, the development trend of domestic car market in China is predicted through horizontal and vertical research. In the aspect of horizontal research, this paper makes elastic analysis on the cross-sectional data of the car ownership and its influencing factors of 100 families in 31 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The main influencing factors and the changing trend of the domestic car market demand are determined. In the aspect of longitudinal research, this paper constructs a multivariate Logistic model, and through the empirical analysis of time series data of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2013, forecasts the changing trend of domestic car market demand in each province of China in the next five years. We draw the conclusion that the demand for domestic cars is still very strong and is in the period of rapid growth. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from three angles of supporting public transportation, giving priority to rail transit and actively advocating green travel, in order to ensure the steady development of domestic car industry and the rational utilization of road resources.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471

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