汇率变化对中德制造业出的影响：比较研究

发布时间：2018-11-03 18:04

【摘要】：制造业对国家的发展而言是极为关键的环节,是一国国民经济的物质基础和产业主体。2008年全球金融危机爆发后,中国制造业出口的竞争优势正在逐步丧失。而德国在19世纪顺利完成工业化,在二战以后实现产业升级,一直保持着制造业优势。德国制造业的国际竞争力强劲而持续,对中国制造业发展升级具有重大借鉴意义。为此,本文通过描述统计,计量分析等方法,从汇率的维度去比较中德两国制造业,提炼德国制造业发展中的优势及经验,对中国制造业发展升级提出战略性建议。首先,本文针对中德制造业进行历史错位比较,选取德国1995-2004年向欧元过渡阶段,以及中国2005年汇率改革以来的八年两国制造业出口额及结构的变化,发现德国在欧元启动前五年制造业结构升级明显,而欧元启动后五年制造业出口总额增幅明显。而中国虽在八年间制造业出口额持续增长,但制造业出口结构中低技术制造业占比过高。其次,本文通过建立引力模型,发现本国及贸易伙伴国国内生产总值对中德制造业出口额均有显著的正向影响,而距离均未对两国制造业出口额形成显著影响。两国不同的是,欧元汇率对德国制造业出口具有显著的正向影响,而中国制造业出口额对人民币汇率并不敏感。这很有可能是因为人民币汇率并未完全自由浮动,且存在贸易保护政策等。本文认为,随着人民币汇率自由浮动脚步的加快,在不久的将来会显著影响到中国制造业的出口额。最后,本文针对中德两国制造业出口进行综述性比较,并针对中国当前制造业发展及出口额增长提出政策建议。本文认为中国当前可以建立类似欧盟的亚洲经济共同体,并稳步推进人民币汇率形成改革机制,促进制造业转型升级,大力发展中高技术制造业等,来应对日益激烈的国际竞争。
[Abstract]:The manufacturing industry is a crucial link to the development of a country, and is the material foundation and the main body of industry of a country's national economy. After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing exports is gradually losing. Germany successfully industrialized in the 19 th century, industrial upgrading after World War II, has maintained the manufacturing advantage. The international competitiveness of German manufacturing industry is strong and sustainable, which is of great significance to the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. Therefore, through describing statistics and econometric analysis, this paper compares the manufacturing industry of China and Germany from the dimension of exchange rate, refines the advantages and experiences in the development of German manufacturing industry, and puts forward some strategic suggestions for the development and upgrading of Chinese manufacturing industry. First of all, this paper compares the historical dislocation of Chinese and German manufacturing industries, selects Germany's transition from 1995 to 2004 to the euro, and eight years of changes in the export volume and structure of the two countries' manufacturing industry since the exchange rate reform in 2005. It was found that Germany's manufacturing structure was significantly upgraded five years before the launch of the euro, while total manufacturing exports rose significantly five years after the launch of the euro. Although China's manufacturing exports continued to grow over the past eight years, the proportion of low-tech manufacturing in the manufacturing export structure was too high. Secondly, through the establishment of gravity model, it is found that the gross domestic product (GDP) of our country and its trading partners have a significant positive impact on the manufacturing exports of China and Germany, but the distance has no significant effect on the manufacturing exports of both countries. Unlike the two countries, the euro has a significant positive impact on German manufacturing exports, which are insensitive to the yuan. This is probably because the RMB exchange rate is not completely free to float, and there are trade protection policies. This paper argues that, with the rapid pace of RMB exchange rate floating freely, the export volume of Chinese manufacturing industry will be significantly affected in the near future. Finally, this paper makes a comprehensive comparison of manufacturing exports between China and Germany, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the development and export growth of China's manufacturing industry. This paper holds that China can establish an Asian Economic Community similar to the European Union, and steadily promote the RMB exchange rate reform mechanism, promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, and vigorously develop the high-tech manufacturing industry, etc. To cope with increasingly fierce international competition.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.6;F424;F451.6

【参考文献】