基于全寿命周期理论的配电工程投资决策分析及其应用

发布时间：2018-11-08 07:30

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展,电力企业投资速度也不断加快,配电工程投资占电力企业固定资产投资的比重越来越大,投资决策的成败直接关系到电力企业资金的有效使用效率,影响企业的市场竞争力。目前,我国配电工程在投资决策阶段偏重于一次性投入成本费用,对设备投产运行后的费用估计不足,严重影响投资决策的准确性。配电工程投资费用应该涵盖从配电设备规划、购置、使用直至报废整个全寿命周期内所涉及的所有投入。本文将全寿命周期成本理论应用于配电工程投资决策的研究,以期实现对配电工程科学、合理、客观的全面评价。第一,分析了配电工程投资决策的特点,’对配电工程的传统决策方法进行了梳理,并对投资回收期法、费用比较法、投资收益率法进行了归纳。总结了中国配电工程投资决策中存在的问题并分析了其产生的原因。第二,针对我国目前配电工程在投资决策阶段存在的问题,分析了在配电工程投资决策活动中引入全寿命周期成本(LCC)理论的必要性,找到配电工程决策理论问题的解决方法。利用LCC理论对配电工程的全寿命周期成本进行分析和归纳,将周期理论的方法重点应用到决策的候选方案的筛选以及对比的方面,分析不同阶段的费用成本,建立了配电工程的LCC投资决策模型,并对其敏感因素进行分析。根据对配电工程投资决策的研究,总结出基于全寿命周期的配电工程方案决策步骤。第三,以实际中某10kV配电工程为例,利用本文提出配电工程的LCC投资决策模型进行实证,研究发现：LCC投资决策模型在变压器改造选型中可为各个供电公司节约大量投资。通过敏感性分析发现：LCC对每年的运行维护费用以及每年故障费用反映较为灵敏。此外,无论从LCC的比例分析还是灵敏度分析中都可以看出,运行成本对算例LCC具有极大的影响。通过与传统的成本计算方法对比分析,发现：基于LCC投资决策分析方法进行配电工程设备改造选型时,为实现全寿命周期成本最低、设备利用价值最高,应优先考虑技术成熟、节能、功耗低、维护检修方便的型号设备。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy in our country, the investment speed of electric power enterprises is also speeding up, and the investment of distribution engineering is more and more important in the fixed assets investment of electric power enterprises. The success or failure of investment decision is directly related to the efficiency of the effective use of the funds of electric power enterprises. Affect the market competitiveness of enterprises. At present, the distribution project in our country pays more attention to the one-time input cost in the investment decision-making stage, and the estimate of the cost after the equipment is put into operation is insufficient, which seriously affects the accuracy of the investment decision. Distribution engineering investment costs should cover all inputs involved throughout the entire life cycle from distribution equipment planning, acquisition, use to end-of-life. In this paper, the life-cycle cost theory is applied to the study of investment decision of distribution engineering, in order to realize the scientific, reasonable and objective comprehensive evaluation of distribution engineering. Firstly, the characteristics of investment decision of distribution engineering are analyzed. The traditional decision-making methods of distribution engineering are combed out, and the methods of investment payback period, cost comparison and investment return rate are summarized. This paper summarizes the problems existing in the investment decision of distribution engineering in China and analyzes the causes. Secondly, in view of the problems existing in the investment decision stage of distribution engineering in China, the necessity of introducing the (LCC) theory of life-cycle cost into the investment decision making activities of distribution engineering is analyzed. To find out the solution of the distribution engineering decision theory problem. LCC theory is used to analyze and sum up the whole life cycle cost of distribution engineering. The method of cycle theory is applied to the selection and comparison of the candidate scheme of decision making, and the cost of different stages is analyzed. The LCC investment decision model of distribution engineering is established and its sensitive factors are analyzed. Based on the research on investment decision of distribution engineering, the decision-making steps of distribution engineering scheme based on whole life cycle are summarized. Thirdly, taking a 10kV distribution project as an example, using the LCC investment decision model of distribution engineering, it is found that the LCC investment decision model can save a lot of investment for each power supply company. Through sensitivity analysis, it is found that LCC is more sensitive to the annual operation and maintenance cost and the annual failure cost. In addition, it can be seen from the scale analysis and sensitivity analysis of LCC that the operation cost has a great influence on the LCC. By comparing with the traditional cost calculation method, it is found that in order to realize the lowest cost of the whole life cycle and the highest utilization value of the equipment, the mature technology should be given priority when the investment decision analysis method based on LCC is used for the transformation and selection of the distribution engineering equipment. Energy saving, low power consumption, easy maintenance and repair of type equipment.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM73;F426.61

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