不确定条件下火电企业收入风险评价及控制研究

发布时间：2018-11-21 11:54

【摘要】：目前我国电力行业正处在由管制经营体制向市场竞争体制转变过程中,具有垄断性和市场性的双重特点。部分水电大省的火电企业年度间售电收入波动巨大,呈现极不稳定性,且售电收入风险成为火电企业的主要风险,甚至影响火电生存和发展。火电企业收入风险是在“半管制”经营体制下,由管制政策的欠合理性及区域市场电力需求、自然因素及局部市场竞争等一系列不确定性因素叠加影响导致。故针对此问题,本文从火电企业收入风险管理的角度开展深入研究。本文主要研究工作包括以下五个方面：一、查阅国内外火电企业风险研究相关文献,从定性研究和定量研究两个角度对已有研究成果进行介绍与评述；二、阐述管制经济理论及风险管理理论,以此作为本文研究的理论支撑；三、运用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法进行火电企业收入风险识别研究,建立风险层次结构,并且通过计量模型研究找出关键不确定性因子及其对收入风险影响程度：四、基于AHP-模糊综合评价法建立火电企业收入风险模型,并进行算例分析；五、从政府管制政策及企业内部控制角度提出收入风险控制建议。本文主要研究结论有：一、火电企业收入风险因子可分为直接风险和源头风险两大类,其中直接风险包括发电量风险和上网电价风险,源头风险包括政策环境风险、经济环境风险及电源替代风险；二、以2010-2012年H省火电企业收入风险为例进行敏感性分析,结果表明电力需求量和省内水电发电量是火电企业收入风险的关键影响因素；三、在建立火电企业收入风险评价模型的基础上,以2012年H省火电企业为算例,得出收入风险等级为“较高”的模糊综合评价结论。
[Abstract]:At present, the electric power industry of our country is in the process of changing from the regulatory management system to the market competition system, which has the dual characteristics of monopoly and market. The annual income of thermal power enterprises in some large hydropower provinces fluctuates greatly, and the risk of electricity sales becomes the main risk of thermal power enterprises, and even affects the survival and development of thermal power. The income risk of thermal power enterprises is caused by the unreasonableness of regulation policy and a series of uncertain factors such as electricity demand of regional market, natural factors and local market competition under the "semi-regulation" management system. In view of this problem, this article carries on the thorough research from the thermal power enterprise income risk management angle. The main research work of this paper includes the following five aspects: first, consulting the domestic and foreign relevant literature on the risk research of thermal power enterprises, introducing and commenting on the existing research results from the qualitative research and quantitative research; Second, the theory of regulatory economy and risk management are expounded as the theoretical support of this paper. Third, using the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis to study the income risk identification of thermal power enterprises, establish the risk hierarchy structure, and find out the key uncertainty factors and their impact on income risk through econometric model research: 4. Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of AHP-, the income risk model of thermal power enterprise is established, and an example is analyzed. Fifth, from the angle of government regulation policy and enterprise internal control, the paper puts forward some suggestions on income risk control. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the income risk factors of thermal power enterprises can be divided into two categories: direct risk and source risk, among which direct risk includes electricity generation risk and Internet electricity price risk, and source risk includes policy environment risk. Economic environment risk and power substitute risk; Secondly, the sensitivity analysis of the revenue risk of thermal power enterprises in H province from 2010 to 2012 shows that the demand for electricity and the power generation of hydropower in the province are the key factors affecting the income risk of thermal power enterprises. Thirdly, on the basis of establishing the income risk evaluation model of thermal power enterprises, taking the thermal power enterprises in H province in 2012 as an example, the conclusion of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation that the income risk grade is "higher" is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61

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