我国重要能源资源进口风险评价与渠道选择研究

发布时间：2018-12-09 11:16

【摘要】：目前，我国石油对外依存度持续增高；天然气和煤炭进口量也不断增加，能源进口风险日益增大，因此，系统研究我国重要能源资源进口风险、保证我国能源进口安全迫在眉睫。而目前国内有关能源进口风险的研究多集中在石油方面，鲜有将煤炭、石油、天然气等重要能源资源进口风险与渠道选择纳入到一个整体框架进行研究，且风险评价多从总体出发，，较少针对具体进口来源地和运输通道的风险评价。鉴于此，本文在对国内外相关研究进行系统综述的基础上，采用理论与实证、定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法对我国重要能源资源进口风险评价与渠道选择进行了研究，主要工作和结论如下：（1）在分析我国三大重要能源资源进口现状基础上，系统归纳总结出我国煤炭、石油、天然气三大重要能源资源的主要进口来源地和包括海上与陆上的主要运输通道，遴选出31个主要进口来源地和12条运输通道，为我国重要能源资源进口风险评价和渠道选择奠定了基础。（2）分析得出资源、经济、政治是进口来源地风险的主要影响因素，路线、承运、港口、地缘政治和军事是运输通道风险的主要影响因素，并在此基础上构建了我国重要能源资源进口风险评价指标体系，通过专家调查确定了各指标评分标准；利用层次分析法和灰评估技术建立了我国重要能源资源进口来源地和运输通道风险评价模型，并借助Matlab软件对目前我国煤炭、石油、天然气进口风险进行了评价，得出31个进口来源地和12条进口运输通道的风险状态。（3）根据风险评价结果，结合我国重要能源资源进口实际，针对性地提出了我国重要能源资源进口渠道选择的具体建议，主要包括：重点培养，深化与风险较低地区的能源合作；加强联系，扩大与风险一般地区的能源贸易；慎重选择，权衡与风险较高地区的能源利益；巩固和完善运输通道多元化，切实解决进口通道安全性问题；加强与通道过境地区的能源外交，确保我国能源进口的运输畅通；加大综合运力建设的支持力度，建立切实可行的军事保护机制；等。以上研究成果对我国重要能源资源进口风险评价及能源进口相关政策制定具有较重要的参考价值。
[Abstract]:At present, the degree of external dependence of petroleum in China continues to increase; The import of natural gas and coal is also increasing, and the risk of energy import is increasing. Therefore, it is urgent to study the import risk of important energy resources in China. At present, domestic research on the risk of energy import is mostly focused on oil, and few of them include the import risk and channel selection of important energy resources, such as coal, oil, natural gas, and so on, into a whole framework for research. And the risk evaluation is mostly based on the whole, but less on the specific import source and transportation channel. In view of this, on the basis of a systematic review of relevant research at home and abroad, this paper studies the risk assessment and channel selection of import of important energy resources in China by means of theoretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative analysis. The main work and conclusions are as follows: (1) on the basis of analyzing the import status of three important energy resources in China, the coal and petroleum of our country are summed up systematically. The main sources of import of the three major energy resources of natural gas and the main transportation channels, including sea and land, have been selected out of 31 major import sources and 12 transportation channels. It lays a foundation for risk assessment and channel selection of important energy resources in China. (2) it is concluded that resources, economy and politics are the main influencing factors of the risk of the import source, and the route, transportation, port, geopolitics and military are the main influencing factors of the risk of the transportation channel. On this basis, the evaluation index system of import risk of important energy resources in China is constructed, and the evaluation standard of each index is determined through expert investigation. The risk assessment model of important energy resource import source and transportation channel is established by using AHP and grey assessment technology, and the import risk of coal, oil and natural gas in China is evaluated with the help of Matlab software. The risk states of 31 import sources and 12 import transportation channels are obtained. (3) according to the result of risk assessment, combined with the actual situation of import of important energy resources in China, the paper puts forward some specific suggestions for the selection of import channels of important energy resources in China. Deepening energy cooperation with low-risk areas; Strengthen contacts, expand energy trade with general risk areas, choose carefully, weigh the energy interests of high risk areas, consolidate and improve the diversification of transport channels, and effectively solve the problem of safety of import channels; Strengthen the energy diplomacy with the transit area, ensure the smooth transportation of our country's energy import, strengthen the support of the comprehensive transportation capacity construction, establish the feasible military protection mechanism, and so on. The above research results have important reference value for the risk assessment of important energy resources import and the formulation of energy import policy.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.61;F426.2

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