宁夏石嘴山中节能农业科技大棚20兆瓦光伏发电项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-12-18 11:14

【摘要】：能源供求不平衡已阻碍了我国经济的可持续发展,光伏发电项目存在优点,例如不消耗燃料,不排放CO2等温室气体,具有环保节能,无噪声的特点。但是光伏产业在开发过程中也存在诸多风险。因此,为了促进光伏发电项目的发展与推广,必须要建立项目方案风险评价和防范措施体系。本文以宁夏石嘴山中节能农业科技大棚20兆瓦光伏发电项目为研究案例,对其进行风险评估、并构建防范系统,提出风险控制措施。宁夏石嘴山中节能农业科技大棚20兆瓦光伏发电项目功能布局为“一心、两轴、四节点、六分区”的空间组织。环境风险,技术风险,经济风险,政策风险四部分都是在光伏效应的建设项目的关键风险因素。其中技术风险又包括设计技术风险、建设技术风险、运行技术风险；经济风险又包括项目上网电价、项目上网电量、上网运行风险、财务风险。基于三角模糊理论构建了光伏发电项目风险综合评价模型,并对宁夏石嘴山中节能农业科技大棚20兆瓦光伏发电项目进行了风险评价。根据评价结果,即光伏建筑项目处于中等风险水平,需要对光伏发电项目各风险因素加以监督和管控,以避免或减少光伏建筑项目风险发生造成的经济损失,并从项目损失预防与抑制、风险隔离和风险转移三个方面对宁夏石嘴山中节能农业科技大棚20兆瓦光伏发电项目进行风险掌控与预防。
[Abstract]:The imbalance of energy supply and demand has hindered the sustainable development of China's economy. Photovoltaic power generation projects have advantages, such as no fuel consumption, no emission of greenhouse gases such as CO2, with the characteristics of environmental protection, energy saving and noise free. But photovoltaic industry also has many risks in the process of development. Therefore, in order to promote the development and promotion of photovoltaic power generation projects, it is necessary to establish a project risk evaluation and prevention measures system. This paper takes the 20MW photovoltaic power generation project in Shizuishan, Ningxia as a case study, carries out risk assessment, constructs prevention system, and puts forward risk control measures. Ningxia Shizuishan energy-saving agricultural science and technology greenhouse 20MW photovoltaic power project functional layout for "one mind, two axes, four nodes, six zones" space organization. Environmental risk, technical risk, economic risk and policy risk are the key risk factors in the construction of photovoltaic effect. The technology risk includes the design technology risk, the construction technology risk, the operation technology risk, the economic risk includes the project electricity price, the project network electricity quantity, the network operation risk, the financial risk. Based on triangle fuzzy theory, a comprehensive risk assessment model of photovoltaic power generation project is established, and the risk evaluation of 20MW photovoltaic power generation project in Shizuishan energy saving agricultural science and technology shed in Ningxia is carried out. According to the evaluation result, the photovoltaic construction project is in the middle risk level, so it is necessary to supervise and control the various risk factors of the photovoltaic power generation project, in order to avoid or reduce the economic loss caused by the photovoltaic construction project risk. And from three aspects of project loss prevention and suppression, risk isolation and risk transfer, the 20 MW photovoltaic power generation project in Shizuishan energy saving agricultural science and technology shed in Ningxia is controlled and prevented.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.61;F272.3

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