贵州茅台的财务政策分析

发布时间：2019-02-18 09:00

【摘要】：在快速发展的经济市场中，如何合理利用现有资金进行投资是公司发展的重点，在现代理财学中，我们把它称为微观财务政策。微观财务政策包括投资、融资、股利、营运资本等企业政策，其中，投资政策为核心，其余三大政策都是为投资服务的。本文将以上市公司贵州茅台为例，运用国内外的财务管理理论来研究其财务政策。在投资的研究中，首先从Tobin Q入手。通过对比发现，茅台的Q值远高于同行业均值，但它每年的投资上与现金流量的比率要低于同行业，即高Q值，低投资，这与Tobin Q理论不符。究其原因，通过回归我们发现，与Q值直接相关的是茅台的股价，与股价相关的是茅台的业绩，而导致业绩变化的最主要因素是政府的政策。由于茅台很少利用长期负债，所以资金基本上来自于净利润。茅台虽然有“每股分红王”的美誉，但是其股利收益率却不及同行业。通过回归得出，茅台的投资、Q值和股利没有明显的相关关系，但这种看似非理性的财务政策背后却存在着极具个性的公司治理。茅台的总资产中，银行存款占到了50%左右，我们惊奇地发现，茅台的银行存款与遵义市商业银行的成长轨迹惊人得相似，而且茅台的母公司就是此银行的第二大股东，我们完全有理由怀疑茅台在利用大量剩余现金向银行输送利益。本文的主要结论为：（1）Tobin Q理论并不一定适用于中国特色的混合体制的经济市场，存在政府干预使股价虚高的现象；（2）茅台的公司治理中，政府一股独大，具有绝对控制权，把大量的现金作为回报率极低的存款放入银行，侵犯了小股东的利益，不利于公司的长远发展。
[Abstract]:In the rapidly developing economic market, how to make rational use of the existing funds for investment is the focus of the development of the company. In the modern finance science, we call it the micro-financial policy. Micro-financial policies include investment, financing, dividend, working capital and other enterprise policies, in which investment policy is the core, and the other three policies serve for investment. This paper takes Guizhou Maotai, a listed company, as an example to study its financial policy by using the theory of financial management at home and abroad. In the research of investment, we start with Tobin Q. By comparison, it is found that the Q value of Maotai is much higher than the average value of the same industry, but the ratio of its annual investment to cash flow is lower than that of the same industry, that is, high Q value and low investment, which is inconsistent with Tobin Q theory. By regression, we find that the stock price of Maotai is directly related to Q value, the performance of Maotai is related to the stock price, and the main factor leading to the change of performance is the policy of the government. Because Maotai makes little use of long-term debt, so capital basically comes from Yu Jing profit. Maotai has a reputation as a dividend per share, but its dividend yield is not as good as that of the industry. It is concluded by regression that there is no obvious correlation between the investment, Q value and dividend of Maotai, but there is a very personal corporate governance behind this seemingly irrational financial policy. Of the total assets of Moutai, bank deposits account for about 50% of the total assets. We were surprised to find that the bank deposits in Maotai are surprisingly similar to the growth trajectory of the Zunyi City Commercial Bank, and that the parent company of Moutai is the second largest shareholder of the bank. We have every reason to suspect that Moutai is using a large amount of surplus cash to channel profits to the bank. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the) Tobin Q theory does not necessarily apply to the mixed economic market with Chinese characteristics. (2) in the corporate governance of Maotai, the government has a dominant share and has absolute control. Putting a large amount of cash into the bank as a deposit with extremely low rate of return infringes on the interests of minority shareholders and is not conducive to the long-term development of the company.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.82;F275

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