国际贸易、国际利率与中国实际经济周期——基于封闭经济和开放经济三部门RBC模型的比较分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 06:00

本文关键词：国际贸易、国际利率与中国实际经济周期——基于封闭经济和开放经济三部门RBC模型的比较分析　出处：《管理世界》2012年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来我国经济周期表现出某些既不同于发达国家,也不同于发展中国家与新兴国家的特征:一方面我国居民消费波动的幅度大于产出波动;另一方面,我国的就业波动较为平滑。本文试图从开放经济的角度解释我国经济周期的特征事实。又鉴于我国政府在宏观经济调控中的重要影响和实际经济表现出的明显的技术进步,为此建立了一个考虑了以国际利率冲击为代表的国际金融冲击、资本利用、技术进步和政府支出冲击的小国开放经济三部门RBC模型,并考察了这些机制对我国经济周期的影响。本文发现:上述机制对各经济变量波动都有重要的影响;这个模型能够合理解释各宏观经济变量与TB/GDP之间的逆向协动性;该模型能够解释95%以上的中国经济波动特征;其对中国宏观经济的解释力要强于考虑了技术进步的封闭经济三部门RBC模型,说明这一模型比较符合中国经济的特征事实。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic cycle has shown some characteristics that are not only different from developed countries, but also different from developing countries and emerging countries: on the one hand, the fluctuation of consumption in China is larger than the fluctuation of output; On the other hand. The fluctuation of employment in our country is relatively smooth. This paper tries to explain the characteristic fact of our country's economic cycle from the angle of open economy, and in view of the important influence of our government in the macroeconomic regulation and control and the obvious economic performance of our country. Technological progress. In this paper, a three-sector RBC model of open economy of small countries is established, which takes into account the impact of international interest rate shock, capital utilization, technological progress and government expenditure. The effects of these mechanisms on the economic cycle in China are also investigated. It is found that the above mechanisms have an important effect on the fluctuation of economic variables; This model can reasonably explain the adverse coactivity between macroeconomic variables and TB/GDP. The model can explain the characteristics of Chinese economic fluctuation above 95%. Its explanatory power to China's macro-economy is stronger than the three-sector RBC model of closed economy, which takes into account the technological progress, which shows that this model is more in line with the characteristic facts of China's economy.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系;厦门大学世界经济研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“我国宏观经济运行的微观基础研究”(08JJD790134)支持
【分类号】：F752;F821;F124.8;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言实际经济周期(Real Business Cycle,以下简称为RBC)理论形成于20世纪80年代,是宏观经济学最引人注目的发展之一。主要代表性论文有Kydland和Prescott(1982)、Long和Plosser(1983)、King和Plosser(1984)、Hansen(1985)、Prescott(1986)等,其中又以Kyd land-Prescott模

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