中小企业存货质押融资风险及控制策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 18:39

本文关键词：中小企业存货质押融资风险及控制策略研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：历年来中小企业具有自有资本少、固定资产少、企业信用度不高等特点,这些客观因素导致其很难直接通过银行融资,又在制约其发展因素中最重要的就是融资问题,存货质押融资业务已是解决中小企业融资难的重要间接融资方式。存货质押融资是近几年在金融市场上一种十分活跃的融资方式。中小企业将其原材料、半成品、成品等当成质押物向商业银行借款,通过物流企业这样一个第三方企业对货物进行监管,对质押物进行转移占有,而中小企业也达到了融资的目的。在帮助中小企业解决固有的融资难题的同时,也给开展动产质押业务的金融机构带来了丰厚的报酬。然而存货质押融资作为一种新兴的融资模式,在不断发展的过程中也出现了相应的风险,如质押物价格风险、业务中的法律法规问题、质押率设置风险、企业违约风险等,各种风险控制是存货质押融资发展的重要前提。在众多的存货质押融资风险中,质押物的价格风险及中小企业的违约风险是所有风险中的重点,也是本文重点研究对象。本文通过对存货质押融资业务中的三大主体：金融机构、物流企业及中小企业在业务中的职能作用来分析业务中的风险点,提出把控质押物价格风险和企业违约风险的重要性。首先,以分形理论为基础,提出基于分形理论的质押物价格预测模型,有效预测质押物价格,以期控制存货质押融资价格风险。主要选取四川地区日2011年1月到2012年12月的螺纹钢HRB335φ10的462个价格数据,运用重标极差法并借助Matlab7.0软件进行实证分析,预测出后一个月的价格,并分析对比预测结果与实际价格,求出质押物价格的Hurst指数,对质押物价格进行预测。其次,在验证预测价格模型的有效性后,从心理动力学角度出发,采用简化的九型人格心理调查问卷对中小企业领导人进行调查,探讨企业领导人的人格对企业是否违约起着决定性作用。再结合预测出的期末质押物价格,采用专家打分法,对企业违约率进行估算,并对此模型进行实证分析。最后,结合上述二个模型提出银行风险警戒值的估算及合理把控业务风险的方法与措施。研究结果表明在存货质押业务三主体中,无论是物流企业的市场风险、商品监管风险,还是商业银行所面临的质押物选择风险、质押率设置风险、经营风险、道德风险等都跟质押物价格波动有关,论述质押物价格波动是存货质押融资业务的关键风险点；采用的分形理论质押物价格预测模型是有效的,后续30天的螺纹钢价格进行预测的最大误差为1.3%,最小误差0.05%,即此模型能较准确的预测存货质押业务中的质押物价格；中小企业内部领导人有强烈的个人主义色彩,企业领导人共分9种人格类型,企业共分5种状态,在上述价格预测模型的基础上可有效且科学的估算出企业的违约风险,具体见价格—违约表。基于上述二种模型的有效性后提出相关政策与建议,有效控制或降低存货质押融资风险,显著提高质押融资效率。
[Abstract]:Over the years, the small and medium-sized enterprise has its own capital, fixed assets, enterprise credit degree is not high, these factors make it difficult to directly through bank financing, but also the most important factor in restricting the development of is the problem of financing, inventory financing is to solve the financing difficulties of SMEs important indirect financing inventory. Mortgage financing is in recent years in the financial market is a very active way of financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. The raw materials, semi-finished products, finished products such as collateral loans to commercial banks, through the third party logistics enterprises such an enterprise of goods regulation, to pledge the transfer of possession, but also to small and medium sized enterprises the purpose of financing. To help SMEs solve their financing problems inherent at the same time, but also to carry out the chattel mortgage business of financial institutions has brought huge returns. However, inventory Financing as a new financing mode in the development process there are also some risks, such as pledge price risk, legal issues in business, pledge rate setting risk, corporate default risk, risk control is an important premise of inventory financing development. Many of the pledge in the inventory financing risk in the small and medium-sized enterprises pledge price risk and the default risk is the focus of all the risk, which is the focus of the research object. Based on the three main stock pledge financing business in financial institutions, the functions of logistics enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in the business of business risk, put forward control of the pledge price risk and corporate default risk importance. Firstly, on the basis of fractal theory, fractal theory model is proposed to predict the pledge price based on the prediction of effective collateral price, In order to control the inventory financing price risk. Mainly from Sichuan area on January 2011 to December 2012 rebar HRB335 Phi 10 462 price data, using the rescaled range analysis and empirical analysis by using the software of Matlab7.0, predicted a month after the price, and analyzed the predicted results and the actual price, calculate the pledge the price of the Hurst index, the collateral price forecast. Secondly, the validity of the forecast price model in the verification, starting from the psychological dynamics angle, using the simplified Enneagram psychological questionnaire of leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises, to explore business leaders on whether enterprises default personality plays a decisive role. Combined with the forecast the final pledge price, using expert scoring method to corporate default rates were estimated, and the empirical analysis this model. Finally, the combination of the above two models proposed Estimation of bank risk warning value and reasonable methods and measures to control the business risk. The results show that in the three main stock pledge business, whether it is the logistics enterprises commodity market risk, regulatory risk, choice of pledge or risk faced by commercial banks, mortgage rate setting risk, management risk, moral hazard and so on are to pledge price fluctuations, this pledge price volatility is the key risk of inventory financing; fractal theory the pledge price prediction model is effective, the maximum error of forecast steel prices following 30 days of 1.3%, the minimum error of 0.05%, that this model can accurately predict the stock pledge pledge the price in the business of small and medium-sized enterprises; internal leaders strongly individualistic, business leaders are divided into 9 types of personality, the enterprise is divided into 5 states, in the above price Based on the prediction model, we can effectively and scientifically estimate the default risk of enterprises, and see the price breach table in detail. Based on the effectiveness of the above two models, we put forward relevant policies and suggestions, effectively control or reduce the risk of inventory financing, and significantly improve the efficiency of pledge financing.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F276.3;F832.4

【参考文献】