公众学习视角下我国通胀预期形成机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 19:08

本文关键词：公众学习视角下我国通胀预期形成机制研究　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国经济快速发展,国务院常务会议曾提出,当前要实施适度宽松的货币政策和财政政策,但是双松的政策使得社会需求量扩大,不可避免地引起通货膨胀压力。通货膨胀问题长期以来一直受到社会的关注。自金融危机爆发以来,国务院多次强调关注通货膨胀风险和通胀预期压力。在这种背景下,研究通胀预期形成及公众学习对通胀预期形成的影响有助于我国从居民角度更好的管理通胀预期,促进经济的稳定发展。本文首先在借鉴国内外研究文献的基础上,对公众学习、通胀预期理论进行了简要概述,其中包括公众学习的定义、分类及其性质,通胀预期的界定、形成机理和影响因素。其次,基于不同的通胀预期形成机制,分析了公众理性学习和感性学习对通胀预期形成的影响,在理性预期假说中,公众具有自我学习能力,能够充分利用信息、不断学习、更新预期；在适应性学习过程中,公众能够利用现有的经济数据,使用不同的学习算法(如递归最小二乘学习法)建立估计模型并进行宏观经济预期,当获得新的数据时会对模型重新进行估计。除此之外,央行信息披露在公众感性学习中也发挥了重要作用;对于媒体(报纸、电视等)的舆论引导,也可以视为影响公众感性学习的重要因素。再次本文通过查阅2001年1季度至2012年四季度的《人民日报》数据,采用赋值法构建媒体信息披露指数；同时基于相同区间的储户问卷调查数据,使用改进的C-P概率法求得我国通胀预期序列。最后,本文使用SVAR模型框架深入研究公众感性学习对我国通胀预期形成的影响,研究发现,媒体信息披露对我国居民通胀预期形成的影响力度大于央行信息披露。因此,管理通胀预期时应综合运用媒体信息披露和央行信息披露,并谨慎使用实际干预手段。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's rapid economic development, the executive meeting of the State Council has proposed that the current implementation of moderately loose monetary policy and fiscal policy, but double loose policy to increase social demand. Inevitably causes the inflation pressure. The inflation question has been the social concern for a long time. Since the financial crisis broke out. The State Council has repeatedly stressed its concern about inflation risks and inflationary expectations. The study of the formation of inflation expectations and the impact of public learning on the formation of inflation expectations will help our country better manage inflation expectations from the perspective of residents. Firstly, on the basis of the domestic and foreign research literature, this paper gives a brief overview of the theory of public learning and inflation expectation, including the definition, classification and nature of public learning. Secondly, based on the different formation mechanisms of inflation expectations, this paper analyzes the impact of public rational learning and perceptual learning on the formation of inflation expectations, in the hypothesis of rational expectations. The public has the ability to learn, to make full use of information, to learn constantly, and to update expectations; In the process of adaptive learning, the public can use existing economic data, use different learning algorithms (such as recursive least squares learning method) to build estimation models and carry out macroeconomic expectations. In addition, the information disclosure of the central bank also plays an important role in public perceptual learning. Guide the public opinion of the media (newspaper, television, etc). It can also be regarded as an important factor to affect the public perceptual learning. Thirdly, this paper constructs the media information disclosure index by referring to the data of "People's Daily" from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2012. At the same time, based on the same interval of savers questionnaire data, the improved C-P probability method is used to obtain the inflation expectation sequence. Finally. This paper uses the SVAR model framework to study the impact of public perceptual learning on the formation of inflation expectations in China. The influence of media information disclosure on the formation of inflation expectations of Chinese residents is greater than that of central bank information disclosure. Therefore, the use of media information disclosure and central bank information disclosure should be integrated in the management of inflation expectations. And careful use of practical interventions.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5

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