汇率对我国产业结构调整的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 08:44

本文关键词：汇率对我国产业结构调整的影响研究　出处：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：产业结构调整对我国经济社会发展具有重大的战略意义。对外贸易的扩大和外商投资的增加在我国三十多年的对外开放过程中为产业结构调整、升级提供了不竭的动力。作为重要的价格变量,人民币汇率的变动会通过影响进出口产品价格、外商投资收益等作用于我国外部经济和内部经济。本文主要讨论人民币汇率变动与我国经济增长路径的关系,并以此为基础,分析人民币汇率升值对我国产业结构调整的外在驱动和内在驱动,并从经常项目和资本项目两个方面分别阐述人民币汇率是如何促进产业结构调整的。其主要结构如下：第一章绪论部分重点分析本文的选题理论意义和实际意义,以突出研究人民币实际有效汇率对产业结构调整影响的必要性和重要性。第二章详细阐述了人民币实际有效汇率及产业结构调整的相关概念和理论,主要包括人民币实际有效汇率的定义、产业结构的界定、汇率传递理论、巴拉萨一萨缪尔森效应、购买力平价理论、汇率、国际资本流动与产业结构调整理论等,以便为下文的分析做基础性铺垫。第三章论述人民币汇率与我国产业结构调整的关系。着重研究以下几个方面的内容：一、以我国经济发展的客观现实为依据,详细阐述人民币汇率对我国产业结构调整的影响,以及我国出口导向型经济发展模式的形成过程和对内、对外两部门生产率差异的状况；二、根据巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应理论,研究我国经济增长模式和产业结构发展特征与人民币汇率变动的内在关系；三、从国际收支的经常项目(主要为对外贸易一般项目)和资本项目(主要包括外商直接投资和其他投资)两个方面分析人民币汇率波动对我国产业结构调整的作用路径。第四章首先梳理了人民币汇率的历史演变,接着结合人民币汇率的变动趋势,分析人民币实际有效汇率与我国外贸结构变动的相关性。最后在实证部分,本文运用回归分析、因果分析、VAR模型、脉冲响应等计量方法分析人民币实际有效汇率变动对劳动密集型产品、资源密集型产品和资金密集型产品的出口比重和进口比重的影响,探讨当前人民币实际有效汇率升值对我国对外贸易结构调整的影响。第五章从现实和实证两方面研究外商投资的产业结构调整效应,即国际资本流动对我国产业结构调整的影响。首先从现实角度回顾汇率与外商投资近三十年来的变化,然后运用回归分析、因果检验、协整、VAR和脉冲响应等从实证的角度对1985年至2012年期间人民币实际有效汇率变动与外商直接投资和外商其他投资的关系进行了计量分析。第六章得出本文的结论：无论是在对外贸易还是在外商投资方面,人民币实际有效汇率的升值对产业结构的调整都具有积极的带动作用。人民币汇率升值对我国经济社会发展具有重大的战略影响,单就产业增加值来说,人民币汇率升值有利于提高第二、三产业增加值,相应的减少第一产业增加值,优化三大产业在国民经济中的比重；从产品结构来说,能够有效带动资本和资源密集型产品的进口和出口,抑制我国劳动密集型产品的出口,从而有助于改变我国一直以来以劳动密集型和资源密集型产品为出口主导的状况；从投资方面看,将带动外商直接和外商其他投资的增加,维护我国资本市场稳定。经过这些利弊的权衡,我国政府和企业将加快转变产品出口模式和经济增长方式,最终实现产业结构的调整将会水到渠成。
[Abstract]:It is of great strategic significance to the development of the industrial structure adjustment of China's economic society. The increase of foreign trade and foreign investment increased in the process of opening up in China for more than thirty years for the adjustment of industrial structure, upgrade to provide an inexhaustible power. As an important price variable, the RMB exchange rate changes will be affected by the import and export of products the price of foreign investment in our external economy and internal economy. This paper mainly discusses the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's economic growth path, and on this basis, analysis of the RMB exchange rate appreciation on the adjustment of Chinese industrial structure of the external and internal driving, and from the two aspects of the current and capital projects respectively. This is the exchange rate of RMB to promote the adjustment of industrial structure. The main structure is as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction part, which focuses on the theoretical and practical significance of this topic, so as to highlight the necessity and importance of studying the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on industrial restructuring.
The second chapter elaborated the related concepts of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the adjustment of industrial structure and theory, including the definition of real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate, the definition of industrial structure, transfer theory, Pakistan Lhasa a Samuelson effect, the theory of purchasing power parity, exchange rate, international capital flow and the theory of industrial structure adjustment, in order to make a foundation pave the way for the following analysis.
The third chapter discusses the relationship between RMB exchange rate and the adjustment of industrial structure in China. The paper researches the following contents: first, the objective reality of China's economic development as the basis, elaborated the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's industrial structure adjustment, as well as China's export-oriented economic development model of the forming process and the. The two sector productivity difference situation; two, according to Pakistani Lhasa - Samuelson effect theory, the internal relationship between China's economic growth mode and industrial structure development characteristics and the change of RMB exchange rate; three, from the international balance of payments current account (mainly foreign trade general project) and capital projects (including foreign direct investment and other investment) two aspects of the path of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's industrial structure adjustment.
The fourth chapter first reviews the evolution of the RMB exchange rate history, then combined with the trend of RMB exchange rate, the correlation analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the change of foreign trade structure of our country. Finally, in the empirical part, this paper uses regression analysis, causal analysis, VAR model, impulse response measurement analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate changes on labor intensive effect of resource intensive products, the proportion of export products and capital intensive products and the proportion of imports, to explore the current real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade structure adjustment effect.
Effect of industrial structure adjustment of the fifth chapter from the two aspects of reality and empirical research of foreign investment, the impact of international capital flows on the adjustment of industrial structure in China. First, from the realistic angle, review of exchange rate and foreign investment in the past thirty years, and then use regression analysis, causality test, cointegration, VAR and impulse response of during the period from 1985 to 2012, RMB real effective exchange rate and foreign direct investment and other foreign investment from the perspective of empirical relationships were analyzed.
The sixth chapter draws the conclusion of this paper: whether in foreign trade or in foreign investment, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on the adjustment of industrial structure.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a significant strategic impact on China's economic and social development, single industrial added value, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to improve the added value of the second, third industry, the corresponding reduction of the first industrial added value, optimization of the three industry in the national economy proportion; from the product structure, can effectively promote the capital and resources intensive products import and export, suppression of China's exports of labor-intensive products, which contributes to the change in China has been leading export situation for the labor-intensive and resource intensive products; from the investment perspective, will lead to the increase of foreign direct and other foreign investment, China's capital market stability maintenance after weighing the pros and cons. Of these, our government and enterprises will accelerate the transformation of export mode and the mode of economic growth, and ultimately realize the adjustment of the industrial structure will come into drains.

【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F832.6

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