我国货币篮的稳定贸易目标与绩效分析——基于动态误差修正面板模型的实证检验
发布时间:2018-01-03 13:46
本文关键词:我国货币篮的稳定贸易目标与绩效分析——基于动态误差修正面板模型的实证检验 出处:《上海经济研究》2012年10期 论文类型:期刊论文
更多相关文章: 货币篮 汇率冲击 进出口 PMG GARCH
【摘要】:实施货币篮政策后,汇率对进出口的冲击需通过货币篮汇率中间价形成机制来传导,货币篮是否稳定了我国贸易进出口是检验汇率制度改革成效的重要依据之一。本文从货币篮减缓汇率对出口和进口冲击的双重目标出发分析货币篮的稳定贸易目标体系,引入"货币篮作用系数"构建货币篮减缓人民币汇率对进出口冲击的动态误差修正面板模型,并采用混合组别平均法(PMG)较好地结合了国别短期异质性和长期收敛的汇率影响特征。结果表明,货币篮减缓了人民币汇率对进出口的冲击,基本达到了其稳定贸易的政策目标,然而其作用具有不对称性,其长期作用比短期作用显著,其对出口的长期作用略大于其对进口的长期作用,另外,人民币汇率的弹性还不够,并没有发挥其调整进出口的作用,因此,我国有必要进一步增强汇率的弹性,促进汇率市场机制的形成。
[Abstract]:After the implementation of the monetary basket policy, the impact of exchange rate on imports and exports should be transmitted through the formation mechanism of the intermediate price of the currency basket exchange rate. Whether the currency basket stabilizes China's trade import and export is one of the important bases to test the effectiveness of the exchange rate system reform. This paper analyzes the stable trade items of the currency basket from the dual goal of mitigating the exchange rate impact on exports and imports. Standard system. This paper introduces the "function coefficient of currency basket" to build a dynamic error correction panel model to mitigate the impact of RMB exchange rate on imports and exports. The results show that the currency basket can reduce the impact of RMB exchange rate on import and export. Basically achieved its policy objective of stabilizing trade, but its role has asymmetry, its long-term effect is more significant than the short-term role, its long-term effect on exports is slightly larger than its long-term effect on imports, in addition. The flexibility of RMB exchange rate is not enough, and it does not play its role in adjusting import and export. Therefore, it is necessary for China to further strengthen the elasticity of exchange rate and promote the formation of exchange rate market mechanism.
【作者单位】: 上海对外贸易学院国际经贸学院;
【基金】:上海市085工程建设项目(B-7111-11-118)的阶段性成果
【分类号】:F832.6;F752;F224
【正文快照】: 一、引言目前,我国实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,从我国外汇市场的微观结构(图1)来看,汇率波动的表征下货币篮在我国现行人民币汇率形成机制中起着非常关键的作用,一方面,它是汇率中间价的参考单位;另一方面,货币当局根据外汇市场开
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相关期刊论文 前10条
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