结构性货币沉淀与中国式钱荒——一个政治经济学的解析

发布时间：2018-01-07 07:02

本文关键词：结构性货币沉淀与中国式钱荒——一个政治经济学的解析　出处：《政治经济学评论》2015年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2013年的"钱荒"引起了广泛的关注,其特殊性在于是在宏观流通性持续膨胀下所发生的微观流动性紧张。对此,本文基于政治经济学的理论,尝试从不同产业之间的比例关系、不同产业内部固定资本与流动资本的比例关系,以及其周转速度的差异等维度,分析经济整体资本周转速度导致货币流通速度变化的机制。研究结果发现:中国的钱荒是经济长期由投资拉动、全社会固定资产投资占比持续攀升、产业结构不断变迁所引起的结构性货币沉淀造成的。因此,中央提出的"盘活存量、用好增量"的调控思路正好可以对症下药。依照本文的逻辑,中国的钱荒问题不是货币问题,其本质是结构问题,而结构问题的背后又隐藏着体制问题。若要根治这一难题,还需要从分税体制以及银行系统等领域的全面深化改革入手,而其中的重点则在于央地关系。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the "money shortage" aroused widespread concern, and its particularity was the microcosmic liquidity tension that occurred under the continuous expansion of macroscopic circulation. For this reason, this paper is based on the theory of political economy. From the perspective of the scale relationship between different industries, the proportion relationship between fixed capital and current capital in different industries, and the difference of turnover speed, and so on. This paper analyzes the mechanism of the change of the velocity of money circulation caused by the overall capital turnover velocity of the economy. The results show that the shortage of money in China is a long-term economic growth driven by investment, and the proportion of the whole society's fixed assets investment continues to rise. As a result of the structural monetary precipitation caused by the continuous changes in industrial structure, the central government's idea of "invigorating the stock and making good use of the increment" can be the right remedy for the case, according to the logic of this paper. The problem of money shortage in China is not a problem of money, but a problem of structure, which is hidden behind the problem of structure. There is also a need for comprehensive reform in areas such as the tax-sharing system and the banking system, where the focus is on central-territorial relations.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院经济学系;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“国际分工体系重塑与中国产业转型升级战略的政治经济学研究”(14BJL048);国家社科基金重大项目“我国发展实体经济的战略、政策和制度研究——基于实体经济与虚拟经济数量关系的视角”(批准号:13&ZD018);国家社科基金重大项目“新产业革命的发展动向、影响与中国的应对战略研究”(批准号:13&ZD157)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F822.2
【正文快照】： 一、引言近年来,中国经济呈现出的以下两个现象是非常值得关注的:其一是M2/GDP持续攀升。按照国家统计局公布的M2数据,中国的M2/GDP总体呈现上升趋势,1990年为81.92%,2013年则为187.72%。其中,从1990年至2003年持续攀升,达到162.88%;之后是小幅回落,2008年为151.31%;随后再

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