货币政策意外、利率期限结构与通货膨胀预期管理

发布时间：2018-01-09 23:26

本文关键词：货币政策意外、利率期限结构与通货膨胀预期管理　出处：《世界经济》2012年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于利率期限结构分析了通货膨胀预期对中央银行货币政策意外和中央银行沟通行为的反应,并对通货膨胀预期管理的效果进行了评价。结果显示:货币政策意外在一定程度上增加了市场的中短期通胀预期,对长期通胀预期的影响不大;公开市场操作、存贷款利率调整和存款准备金率调整三种货币政策操作对通胀预期的影响存在明显差异;央行惯例沟通对通胀预期没有影响,央行行长讲话会加大通胀预期波动;货币政策操作和央行沟通行为对通胀预期的冲击在2008～2009年出现了结构性变化;通胀预期管理效果一直不佳,需要进一步完善通胀预期形成及其传导机制并改善央行的政策操作与沟通行为。
[Abstract]:Based on the term structure of interest rate, this paper analyzes the response of inflation expectation to the monetary policy accident of the central bank and the communication behavior of the central bank. The effect of inflation expectation management is evaluated. The results show that monetary policy increases the market expectation of inflation in the short and medium term to a certain extent, and has little effect on the long-term inflation expectation. There are obvious differences in the effects of three monetary policy operations on inflation expectation: open market operation, deposit and loan interest rate adjustment and deposit reserve ratio adjustment; The central bank routine communication has no influence on the inflation expectation, the central bank governor's speech will increase the inflation expectation fluctuation; The impact of monetary policy operation and central bank communication on inflation expectations appeared structural changes from 2008 to 2009. The management of inflation expectations has not been effective, so it is necessary to further improve the formation and transmission mechanism of inflation expectations and improve the policy operation and communication behavior of the central bank.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学金融学院/应用金融研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“基于时变参数的学习机制、利率行为与政策效果研究”(71173030) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“利率期限结构与货币政策效果:基于中国银行业的产业组织分析”(2009JJD790004) 辽宁省教育厅高等学校创新团队研究项目“中国利率期限结构、宏观经济与货币政策研究”(WT2010009)的资助
【分类号】：F224;F822.0;F822.5
【正文快照】： 一引言货币政策效果是各国中央银行制定实现货币政策目标的重要参考，它在一定程度熊海芳王志强上依赖于市场的预期，尤其是对通货膨胀(下文简称通胀)的预期。通胀预期不仅可以影响未来的通胀，而且还是货币政策实现物价稳定的重要传导渠道，因而通胀预期管理对引导市场预期和

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