外商直接投资流入对金砖国家经济的影响

发布时间：2018-01-11 19:35

本文关键词：外商直接投资流入对金砖国家经济的影响　出处：《山东财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：外商直接投资(FDI)作为一种重要的经济现象已经在全球经济一体化的舞台上扮演着越来越重要的角色。外商直接投资的存在和发展对东道国的经济产生了重要的影响，成为推动全球经济发展的主要力量。进入21世纪后，发展中国家逐渐占据引进外资的半壁江山。“金砖五国”是发展中国家和转型经济体中引进外资的主要新兴力量。本研究分别以金砖五国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非)为研究对象，研究引进外商直接投资对东道国经济发展的具体影响。本研究选取金砖五国1995-2012年的国家层面宏观经济数据对流入金砖国家的外商直接投资对东道国经济增长、进出口贸易、国内投资的影响进行研究分析。通过理论分析发现，外商直接投资、经济增长、进口贸易、出口贸易和国内投资之间有着复杂的相互影响关系，Granger因果关系检验结果亦显示在外商直接投资、经济增长、进口贸易、出口贸易和国内投资之间有复杂的互为因果的关系，基于上述分析结果，建立包含5个方程、5个内生变量和5个外生变量的联立方程组计量模型运用二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)实证分析外商直接投资对经济增长、进出口、国内投资的影响。建立联立方程组是因为，与单个方程相比，联立方程组的估计能考虑到更为全面的反映经济各变量的信息，从而更合理地解释复杂的经济系统中各变量的相互影响。研究结果发现，流入中国的外商直接投资显著地促进了国内经济增长、国内资本形成和出口贸易，进出口贸易同样影响了外资的流入；流入巴西的外商直接投资抑制了国内经济的增长，促进了进口贸易的发展，，进出口贸易同样影响了外资的流入；流入印度的外资促进了国内经济增长、国内投资和进口贸易；流入俄罗斯的外资对经济增长和出口贸易产生促进作用，对国内投资形成产生抑制作用，进口贸易同样影响了外资的流入；流入南非的外资促进了国内资本形成。最后，根据研究结果，提出了切合实际的吸引外商直接投资的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI). As an important economic phenomenon, it has played a more and more important role in the stage of global economic integration. The existence and development of foreign direct investment (FDI) has had an important impact on the host country's economy. To become a major driver of global economic development. After 21th century. The developing countries are gradually occupying half of the foreign capital. The BRICS countries are the main emerging forces in the developing countries and the transition economies. In this study, the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia) are selected. India, China, South Africa) as the object of study, to study the specific impact of foreign direct investment on the economic development of host countries. In this study, the national macroeconomic data of BRICS countries from 1995 to 2012 were selected to study the impact of FDI on the economic growth, import and export trade of BRICS countries. Through theoretical analysis, it is found that there are complex interrelation among FDI, economic growth, import trade, export trade and domestic investment. Granger causality test results also show that there are complex causal relationships between FDI, economic growth, import trade, export trade and domestic investment, based on the above results. The econometric model of simultaneous equations including five equations, five endogenous variables and five exogenous variables was established to analyze the impact of FDI on economic growth, import and export by using the two-stage least square method (2SLS). The effect of domestic investment. The simultaneous equations are established because, compared with individual equations, the estimation of simultaneous equations takes into account more comprehensive information that reflects the various variables of the economy. The results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into China significantly promotes domestic economic growth, domestic capital formation and export trade. Import and export trade also affects the inflow of foreign capital; Foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into Brazil inhibits the growth of domestic economy and promotes the development of import trade, which also affects the inflow of foreign capital. The inflow of foreign capital into India contributed to domestic economic growth, domestic investment and import trade; The inflow of foreign capital into Russia promotes economic growth and export trade and inhibits the formation of domestic investment. Import trade also affects the inflow of foreign capital. The foreign capital flowing into South Africa promotes the formation of domestic capital. Finally, according to the research results, the paper puts forward some practical policy recommendations to attract foreign direct investment.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F113;F831.6

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