上市公司现金分红能力指数的构建研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 00:37

本文关键词：上市公司现金分红能力指数的构建研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：股利分配政策作为上市公司财务管理的核心内容,不仅关系着投资者的利益,也影响着公司未来发展,特别是现金股利分配政策。对投资者来说,购买股票获得收益主要来源股息收入和股票差价收入,当上市公司发放现金股利时,不仅改善了投资者的收益结构,也减少了资本市场上的投机行为,所以现金分红可以帮助投资者养成良好的投资行为。对管理层来说,公司进行现金分红不仅可以向外界传递积极正面的信号以吸引更多的投资者,还能降低管理层与投资者之间的代理成本,提高资本利用效率。对监管部门来说,上市公司进行现金分红,有助于投资者养成正确的投资理念,平衡好投资者与管理层之间的关系,维护资本市场的正常运转。虽然现金分红对投资者、管理层以及监管部门影响重大,但上市公司却普遍存在“重融资、轻回报”的问题。为了促使公司发放现金股利,证监会颁布了一系列规定,特别是将再融资与公司分红情况挂钩后,公司分红情况逐步得到改善,甚至引发了现金分红潮。但值得深思的是,再融资与分红情况挂钩这一政策在一定程度上忽视了公司分红能力的差异性,是不是真正能有效地约束具备高分红能力的上市公司,会不会给真正有融资需求的上市公司再添门槛?目前已改善的现金分红情况是因为政策促使的还是因为公司的现金分红能力确实提高了?因此,我们有必要对公司现金分红能力进行客观准确评价,考察公司分红情况是否与其分红能力一致。本文以投资者风险厌恶理论、优序融资理论、股利生命周期理论和信号传递理论为基础,同时梳理了现金股利影响因素的相关文献,并从现金股利影响因素中筛选影响现金分红能力因素,包括：行业特征、公司规模、未来投资情况、盈利情况、成长能力、营运能力、偿债能力和可供分配资产等一级指标。二级指标按照综合性、重要性和代表性等原则进行选取。一级指标运用AHP层次分析法确定权重,二级指标运用因子分析法确定权重,最终构建了上市公司现金分红能力指数计算体系。根据研究内容,论文分为6章：第1章：绪论。绪论主要包括选题背景、研究意义、研究思路和方法、论文内容和框架等。第2章：文献综述。这部分回顾并梳理了现金股利政策相关文献,归纳总结后,发现以往学者更多从现金股利影响因素、公司发放现金股利的动机以及现金股利的市场反映这三个角度进行研究,而从现金分红能力角度进行研究的文献却比较少。第3章：理论分析。关于现金股利的理论研究很丰富,但考虑到与文章的相关性,文中只选择能够支撑研究的理论,主要包括投资者风险厌恶理论、优序融资理论、股利生命周期理论和信号传递理论。第4章：上市公司现金分红能力指数构建。这是文章的核心,更是文章的目的。首先,通过列表的方式概述现金分红的影响因素。然后,分析现金分红能力指数的内涵,在把握其内涵的基础上确定现金分红能力指数指标,包括一级指标和二级指标,构建现金分红能力指数评价体系；接下来,采用主观和客观赋权相结合的方法确定指标权重,一级指标采用AHP层次分析法确定权重,而二级指标采用因子分析赋权的方法；最后,得到上市公司现金分红能力指数的计算体系。第5章：上市公司现金分红能力指数运用。首先根据现金分红能力指数计算体系计算2012年A股上市公司现金分红能力指数值。在计算现金分红能力指数值时,采用标准化法对二级指标进行无量纲化处理,以消除不同行业取值范围不同、计量单位不同的影响。标准化法中所采用的平均值和标准差均由行业数据计算得出。计算过程中考虑了指标类型的差异。当指标取值为0、1时,则该指标的单项指数值为0或100；当指标并非取值0或1时,则将该指标无量纲化后的数值线性转化成值域为[0,100]的数值作为该指标的单项指数值。具体过程如下：若无量纲化后所有样本的指标值域为(a,b),当指标无量纲化后的数值为x时,如果该指标是正指标,则该指标的单项指数值为100*(x-a))/(b-a)；如果该指标为逆指标,则该指标的单项指数为100*(b-x)/(b-a)。由于无量纲化后的数值存在极端值,若a、b直接取无量纲化后的最大值、最小值,无疑会夸大值域宽度,造成单项指数值分布极度不合理。考虑到数据具备连续性,也满足正态分布,中位数相比平均数可以很好地反映数据分布情况,所以本文按5%水平对无量纲化后的数据进行缩尾处理,同时兼顾中位数情况确定a和b的取值,以保证单项指数值的合理性。当然,所有单项指数取值均在[0,100]内,若单项指数计算值超过100,则该单项指数取值为100；若单项指数计算值小于0,则该单项指数取值为0。最后,上市公司现金分红能力指数为∑WiAi,其中Wi是指标i的绝对权重,Ai是指标i的单项指数值。然后根据公司累计未分配利润是否为正将上市公司划分为“具备股利分配资格公司”与“不具备股利分配资格公司”,分析这两类公司现金分红能力指数是否存在显著差异；ST和非ST公司的现金分红能力指数是否存在显著差异；分红公司与未分红公司的现金分红能力指数是否存在显著差异,进而判断现金分红能力指数的有效性。最后,是现金分红能力指数的运用分析,主要用来探索“不同分红能力公司之间是否存在显著的实际分红差异”“高分红能力公司是不是存在不派现或低派现的普遍现象”“低分红能力公司是不是普遍存在高派现情况”等问题的答案,从而进一步认识我国的资本市场。第6章：结论与展望。通过AHP层次分析法和因子分析法构建了上市公司现金分红能力指数,并对该指数进行运用分析,得到以下几点结论： (1)影响现金分红能力的主要因素是盈利情况(37.26%)、偿债能力(19.55%)、可供分配资产(18.19%)和未来投资情况(9.89%)。 (2)通过对上市公司现金分红能力指数描述性统计分析,发现分红公司的现金分红能力指数显著高于未分红公司,而且高派现公司的现金分红能力指数显著高于低派现公司,认为公司现金分红能力指数在一定程度可以预测公司实际的分红强度。 (3)我国A股市场存在“高分红能力公司低派现或不派现”的现象。对高分红能力公司的现金分红进行分析,发现只有67.05%的公司进行了高派现,32.95%的公司进行了低派现或未派现。 (4)我国A股市场存在“低分红能力公司高派现”的现象。对低分红能力公司的现金分红进行分析,发现：29.79%的公司未进行现金分红,41.90%的公司进行了低派现,28.31%的公司却实施了高派现。根据研究结论,笔者也提出了两点切实可行的建议： (1)随着定向增发成为主流的融资方式,建议证监会在将再融资与现金分红挂钩时,因募投项目而采用定向增发进行再融资的上市公司,也应符合“最近三年以现金方式累计分配的利润不少于最近三年实现的年均可分配利润的百分之三十”的规定； (2)证监会可以研究设计一套现金分红能力评价体系,并对所有上市公司的现金分红能力进行评估,并与公司的实际分红情况进行比较,从而制定更为合理有效的分红政策。文章的局限性主要体现在评价体系的建立上。本文指数评价体系选择的行业特征、公司规模、未来投资情况、盈利情况、成长能力、营运能力、偿债能力和可供分配资产等8方面虽说已经很好地衡量了公司分红能力,但是还有没有其他的重要影响因素未纳入评价体系。未来投资情况只进行了定性考虑,却未进行定量考虑。同时,二级指标具不具备代表性,够不够全面。在运用AHP层次分析法确定评价体系中一级指标的权重,具有一定的主观性。而且现金分红能力指数不能评价金融行业、数据缺失以及上市未满3年公司。未来学者可以在现金分红能力影响因素方面进行更为深入的研究,进一步完善现金分红能力评价体系,挑选更具代表性的指标。
[Abstract]:The dividend policy as the core content of financial management of listed companies, not only related to the interests of investors, but also affects the future development of the company, especially the cash dividend policy. For investors to buy shares to obtain income mainly dividend income and stock price income, when the cash dividend is not only to improve the income structure of investors the reduction in capital market speculation, so the cash dividend can help investors make investment behavior. Good management, the company cash dividend can not only deliver a positive signal to the outside world in order to attract more investors, but also can reduce the agency cost between management and investors, improve the efficiency of capital use. The supervision department, the listed company cash dividends, help investors to develop the correct investment concept, investment balance The relationship between the managers and the management is to maintain the normal operation of the capital market.
Although cash dividends to investors, affect the management and supervision department of major listed companies, but they generally re financing, light return problem. In order to promote the company's dividend, the Commission issued a series of regulations, in particular will be linked to dividend refinancing and the company, the company dividends situation gradually improved and even lead to a cash in red tide. But it is worth pondering, refinancing linked with the bonus of this policy to a certain extent, ignore the difference of the dividend capacity, is not really can effectively restrain high dividend capacity of listed companies, will not give the real financing needs of listed companies add threshold? Cash dividends has been improved because of the cash dividend policy to or because the company's ability to really improve? Therefore, it is necessary for US companies cash dividend ability An objective and accurate evaluation was conducted to examine whether the company's bonus is in accordance with its bonus.
In this paper, risk aversion theory, pecking order theory, dividend life cycle theory and signal transmission theory, and reviews the factors affecting the cash dividend and cash dividend, including the influence from the factors influence the cash dividend capacity screening factors: the characteristics of the industry, company size, future investment, profitability, growth ability, operation ability, solvency and assets available for distribution level indicators. The two indicators were selected according to the comprehensive, importance and principles of representation. An index using AHP AHP to determine the weight of the two indicators using factor analysis method to determine the weights, finally constructs the index calculation ability of the listed company cash dividend system.
According to the research content, the thesis is divided into 6 chapters.
The first chapter: introduction. The introduction mainly includes the background of topic selection, research significance, research ideas and methods, content and framework of the paper.
The second chapter: literature review. This part reviews and combs the related literature on cash dividend policy, summarized, previous researchers from more cash dividend factors, these three perspectives reflect the company's cash dividend and cash dividend motivation of the market, and from the angle of cash dividend capacity fewer studies.
The third chapter: theoretical analysis. There are abundant theories about cash dividends. But considering the relevance of articles, we only choose theories that can support research, including investor risk aversion theory, pecking order financing theory, dividend lifecycle theory and signal transmission theory.
The fourth chapter: cash dividends of listed companies. This ability index construction is the core of the article, it is the purpose of the paper. First of all, the factors affecting the list of the overview of the cash dividend. Then, analysis on the connotation of cash dividend capacity index, based on grasping the connotation of the determination of cash dividend ability index, including a indicators and two indicators, construction of evaluation system of cash dividend capacity index; then, using the method of combining the subjective and objective weighting AHP to determine the weight of index weight using AHP indicators and two indicators using factor analysis weighting method; finally, calculating system of cash dividends of listed companies ability index.
The fifth chapter: the use of cash dividend index of listed companies.
According to the cash dividend capacity index calculation system for the calculation of 2012 A shares of listed companies cash dividend. In numerical computing capacity refers to the cash dividend index value, using the standard method of the two indicators of dimensionless, to eliminate the influence of different range of different industries, different units of measurement. The average value of the standardization law and the standard deviation were calculated by industry data. In the process of calculation considering the difference between the index type. When the index value is 0,1, the single index index value is 0 or 100; when the index is not a value of 0 or 1, the index of non numerical linear dimension after transformed into range is the [0100] value as the index of single index value. The specific process is as follows: if the dimensionless index range for all samples (a, b), when the value of dimensionless index after X, if the index is a The subject, the single index index value of 100* (x-a)) / (B-A); if the index is the inverse index, the index of the single index 100* (b-X) / (B-A). Because the numerical dimensionless existence of extreme value, if a, B direct maximum, no the dimensionless minimum value, will undoubtedly cause exaggerated range width, single index value distribution is extremely unreasonable. Considering the data is continuous, also meet the normal distribution, the median compared to the average number can well reflect the data distribution, so this paper according to the 5% level of the non dimensional data into the back end at the same time, the median value of a and B, in order to ensure the rationality of single index value. Of course, all single index values were in the range of [0100], if the value of more than 100 single index calculation, the single index value is 100; if the single index value is less than 0, the single index value is 0. Finally, the listed company's cash dividend index is WiAi, of which Wi is the absolute weight of the index I, and Ai is the single index value of the index I.
Then according to the accumulated undistributed profit is whether the listed companies are divided into "have the qualification of dividend distribution company" and "do not have the qualification of dividend distribution company, analysis of the cash dividend capacity of these two companies index whether there are significant differences; ST and non ST companies cash dividend capacity index whether there are significant differences; cash dividend capacity the company and not dividends dividends index, whether there are significant differences, and to determine the effectiveness of the cash dividend capacity index. Finally, analysis ability to use cash dividend index, mainly used to explore the different dividend capacity between companies if there is a significant difference between the actual dividend" "high dividend capacity of the company is not the existence of cash dividends or not low this common phenomenon" and "low dividend capacity of the company is not common dividends" answers, so as to further recognize To know the capital market in our country.
The sixth chapter: the conclusion and the prospect.
Through the AHP analytic hierarchy process and the factor analysis method, the listed company's cash dividend index is constructed, and the application of the index is analyzed, and the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) the main factors affecting the cash bonus are the earnings (37.26%), the solvency (19.55%), the allocation of assets (18.19%) and the future investment (9.89%).
(2) through the analysis of the cash dividend of listed companies ability index descriptive statistics, found that cash dividend capacity index dividend companies is significantly higher than that in non dividend, and cash dividend capacity index was significantly higher than the low cash dividend company to send the company, that the company's cash dividend dividend strength capacity index can Forecast Ltd in a certain degree of.
(3) A stock market in China has "the high dividend capacity low cash dividend or cash dividend" phenomenon. The ability of high dividend companies cash dividend analysis, found that only 67.05% of companies of high cash dividends, the 32.95% companies were low cash dividend or cash dividend.
(4) low dividend capacity companies of high cash dividends "phenomenon exists in China A stock market. The low dividend capacity company cash dividend is analyzed, found that 29.79% of companies without a cash bonus, 41.90% companies of low cash dividend, 28.31% companies have implemented a cash dividend.
According to the conclusions of the study, I also put forward two practical suggestions:
(1) with the private placement has become the mainstream way of financing, we recommend that the Commission will in refinancing and cash dividend linked, due to equity investment projects and the use of private placement refinancing of listed companies, but also should be consistent with the most recent three years the cumulative distribution of cash profits of not less than three years to achieve average annual distributable recently profit thirty percent "provisions;
(2) the CSRC can study and design a set of cash bonus capability evaluation system, and evaluate the cash dividends ability of all listed companies, and compare with the actual dividend situation of the company, so as to develop a more reasonable and effective dividend policy.
The limitation of the paper is mainly reflected in the establishment of the evaluation system. The evaluation system of selection of industry characteristics, the index of the size of the company, the future investment, profitability, growth ability, operation ability, solvency and asset allocation for the 8 aspects of it have a good measure of the dividend capacity, but there are no factors other significant impacts are not included in the evaluation system. The future investment only qualitative considerations, but not quantitative consideration. At the same time, the two level index does not have enough representative, not comprehensive. In the use of AHP AHP to determine the weights of indicators in the evaluation system and has certain subjectivity and cash. The dividend index can not evaluate the financial industry, data missing and listed under the age of 3 years. Scholars can in future cash dividend capacity factors more in-depth research, further. Good cash bonus evaluation system and select more representative indicators.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

【参考文献】