假设清算法在不良贷款评估中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 07:29

本文关键词：假设清算法在不良贷款评估中的应用研究　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：无论是发达国家、发展中国家还是经济体制转型国家,在经济发展的过程中均不同程度地遇到了巨额的银行坏账问题,在世界经济一体化特别是中国经济快速发展的背景下,解决巨额的金融不良贷款问题成为我国经济工作的重中之重。要想有效的处置不良贷款,前提条件是对其进行准确的评估,因此,选择一个适当的评估方法显得尤为重要。然而不良贷款与正常的资产相比较而言是特殊的资产,其特殊性体现在不良贷款是经营稳定性出现问题时的资产,所以普通资产的评估方法不适合用于不良贷款的评估。本文首先回顾了现有文献对于不良贷款评估的各种方法的研究,对几种方法理论上的对比分析之后,归纳出不同评估方法的适用边界。本文认为就我国现在的金融市场情况以及不良贷款情况的现状而言,不适合使用信用评价法以及专家打分法,因为这两种方法主观性比较强,也不适合用交易案例和回归分析法,因为没有足够的案例数据,通过本文的分析,我们认为假设清算法更符合我国不良贷款的评估环境。本文结合我国金融业不良贷款的实际情况,选取假设清算法作为不良贷款的评估方法,以假设清算法评估理论为基础,根据假设清算法运用前提,结合假设清算法的运用现状及假设清算法运用中存在的问题,分析了假设清算法的主要运用过程,以及假设清算法运用中应该注意的问题,假设清算法主要适用于经营持续性较差、不能充分保证未来收益的企业,将假设清算法细分为假设清算成本价格法、假设清算市场价格法,从而更加细致的在案例中运用假设清算法。通过引入案例,清晰阐述假设清算法在实际案例当中的操作步骤。在具体的案例运用当中就评估条件中的问题逐一解决,不同的资产相应的用假设清算成本价格法及假设清算市场价格法进行评估,得出了最终案例不良贷款的评估价值。本文的主要研究结论有：(1)假设清算法的评估适用于经营持续性较差、不能充分保证未来收益的企业,使用假设清算法对案例进行评估时,要求评估人员对公司资产负债详细分析；(2)在运用假设清算法进行评估时,不仅仅要考虑企业财务因素,如偿债能力等,往往更需要关注其他非财务因素,如抵押物的质量如何以及保证人的保证能力。这样才能让评估结果更接近于不良贷款的真实价值；(3)在运用假设清算法进行评估时,对有效资产、有效负债以及资产贬值的准确认定十分重要,会对最终的评估结果产生比较大的影响,不同的认定会使得分析结果具有较大不同。
[Abstract]:No matter developed countries, developing countries or countries with economic system transition, in the process of economic development, they have met with a huge amount of bad bank loans in varying degrees. Under the background of the world economic integration, especially the rapid development of China's economy, solving the huge financial non-performing loan problem has become the most important part of our country's economic work. The precondition is to evaluate it accurately, so it is very important to choose an appropriate evaluation method. However, the non-performing loan is a special asset compared with the normal assets. Its particularity is that non-performing loan (NPLs) is the asset of the problem of operation stability, so the evaluation method of ordinary assets is not suitable for the evaluation of NPLs. This paper first reviews the existing literature on the various methods of non-performing loans evaluation research, several methods of theoretical comparison and analysis. According to the current situation of financial market and non-performing loan in our country, it is not suitable to use credit evaluation method and expert scoring method. Because of the subjectivity of these two methods, it is not suitable to use transaction cases and regression analysis, because there is not enough case data, through the analysis of this paper. We believe that the hypothetical liquidation method is more in line with the assessment environment of non-performing loans in China. This paper selects the hypothetical liquidation method as the evaluation method of non-performing loans in combination with the actual situation of non-performing loans in China's financial industry. Based on the theory of hypothetical liquidation evaluation, according to the application premise of hypothetical liquidation method, combined with the present situation of hypothetical liquidation method and the problems existing in the application of hypothetical liquidation method, this paper analyzes the main application process of hypothetical liquidation method. And the hypothetical liquidation method should be paid attention to, hypothetical liquidation method is mainly suitable for enterprises with poor continuity of operation and can not fully guarantee future income, the hypothetical liquidation method is subdivided into hypothetical liquidation cost pricing method. Hypothetical liquidation market pricing method, thus more detailed use of hypothetical liquidation in the case. Through the introduction of cases. Explain clearly the operation steps of hypothetical liquidation method in actual cases. In the specific case application, solve the problems in the evaluation condition one by one. Different assets are evaluated by hypothetical liquidation cost pricing method and hypothetical liquidation market price method, and the evaluation value of non-performing loans in the final case is obtained. The main conclusion of this paper is: (1) the hypothetical liquidation method is suitable for enterprises with poor operating continuity and can not fully guarantee the future income, when using the hypothetical liquidation method to evaluate the case. Ask the appraiser to analyze the assets and liabilities of the company in detail; When using hypothetical liquidation method to evaluate, we should not only consider the financial factors of enterprises, such as solvency, but also pay attention to other non-financial factors. Such as the quality of the collateral and the guarantor's ability to guarantee, so that the assessment results closer to the real value of non-performing loans; 3) when using the hypothetical liquidation method to evaluate, it is very important to identify the effective assets, effective liabilities and the depreciation of assets, which will have a great impact on the final evaluation results. Different identification will make the analysis results are quite different.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F830.42;F832.4

【参考文献】