当代国际货币体系可持续性及治理研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 08:05

本文关键词：当代国际货币体系可持续性及治理研究　出处：《清华大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：美国次贷危机和欧洲主权债务危机让世界经济增长前景黯淡，而危机肇始于本世纪初以来主要国际货币发行国宽松的货币政策和财政政策。在经济危机之后，大规模经济刺激和金融业拯救方案不仅没有解决根本性的激励困境，反而增加了长期的公共债务负担，损害了全球对其发行的国际货币的信心。国际货币体系内在的缺陷以及与之相伴的全球失衡是世界经济体系的痼疾和经济危机的根源，而广义“特里芬难题”的存在更是使得当前国际货币体系难以持续。本文以国际货币体系的可持续性为研究对象，重点考察单一信用货币充当国际货币内在的不稳定性，国际货币体系治理架构与全球失衡的演进之间的关系，以及国际货币地位的影响因素。首先，本文根据对当前国际货币体系危机特征事实的总结以及文献研究，基于国际货币的交易媒介职能和价值储藏职能建立起具有一般性解释力的理论模型。通过进行跨期均衡分析和国际货币发行国不同政策场景的模拟，两国模型揭示，国际贸易体系的崩溃源自于后发国家的贸易盈余被吸干，而国际金融体系的崩溃是因为过度积累的对外负债使得国际货币发行国不得不面临外国对其偿债能力的担忧，由此引起对国际货币信心的失去。其次，基于两个基本的理论模型，本文加入了后发国家货币部分国际化以及存在第三国的场景，丰富了国际流动性的供给形式，并分别考察了国际货币治理架构的变化和先发国家经济规模的萎缩对国际货币体系可持续性以及全球失衡的影响。最后，本文从历史上的金本位，布雷顿森林体系以及后布雷顿森林体系的经验出发，对影响国际货币地位的因素进行了实证分析，以检验本文的理论。本文得出的基本结论是：（1）广义“特里芬难题”的实质在于国别货币充当国际货币时，发行国难以避免国内目标和国际目标的冲突，这会造成国际流动性的供给困难。（2）除了一国的经济实力之外，金融发展也是国际货币地位的重要决定因素。在金融市场上提供金融产品的比较优势可以使国际货币发行国通过回流的货币进行融资，即在贸易赤字的情况下，通过发行债券来回收国际货币。（3）多种货币的竞争-合作关系有助于改善国际货币体系的可持续性，因为这样的治理架构可以解除单个国际货币发行国为了提供储备资产而面临的财政压力，，即多国财政能力都可以被用于作为发行国际货币的抵押物的情形更加适应世界经济持续增长的需要。此外，本文还对改革国际货币体系，改善全球金融治理，协调全球宏观经济政策，中国金融市场发展和人民币国际化等议题提出若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have darkened the prospects for world economic growth, and the crisis began with the loose monetary and fiscal policies of the major international money issuers since the beginning of this century, after the economic crisis. Instead of solving the underlying incentive dilemma, massive economic stimulus and financial rescue packages have added to the long-term burden of public debt. The inherent shortcomings of the international monetary system and the accompanying global imbalances are the root causes of the chronic problems of the world economic system and the economic crisis. The existence of the broad sense of "Triffin problem" makes the current international monetary system difficult to sustain. This paper takes the sustainability of the international monetary system as the research object. This paper focuses on the internal instability of a single credit currency as an international currency, the relationship between the governance structure of the international monetary system and the evolution of global imbalances, and the influencing factors of the international monetary status. First of all, this paper based on the current international monetary system crisis characteristics of the summary of facts and literature research. A theoretical model with general explanatory power is established based on the functions of international currency as a trading medium and a store of value. Through the intertemporal equilibrium analysis and the simulation of different policy scenarios of the international currency issuing countries. The two-country model reveals that the collapse of the international trading system stemmed from the draining of the trade surpluses of the latecomers. The collapse of the international financial system is due to the excessive accumulation of external liabilities, the international monetary issuers have to face foreign concerns about their ability to repay, resulting in a loss of confidence in the international currency. Based on two basic theoretical models, this paper adds the internationalization of the currency of the developed countries and the existence of a third country, which enriches the supply of international liquidity. And the impact of the change of the international monetary governance structure and the shrinking of the economies of the developed countries on the sustainability of the international monetary system and global imbalances. Finally, this paper from the history of the gold standard. Based on the experience of the Bretton Woods system and the post-Bretton Woods system, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the international monetary status to test the theory of this paper. The basic conclusion of this paper is that the essence of the "Triffin problem" in the broad sense is that when the national currency acts as the international currency, it is difficult for the issuing countries to avoid the conflict between domestic and international objectives. This makes the supply of international liquidity difficult) in addition to a country's economic strength. Financial development is also an important determinant of the international monetary status. The comparative advantage of providing financial products in the financial market enables the international money issuing countries to finance through the returned currency, that is, in the case of trade deficits. The competitive-cooperative relationship of multiple currencies through the issuance of bonds to recover the international currency will help to improve the sustainability of the international monetary system. Because such a governance structure would relieve the fiscal pressure on individual international currency issuers to provide reserve assets. That is to say, the financial capacity of many countries can be used as collateral for the issue of international currency to meet the needs of the sustained growth of the world economy. In addition, this paper also aims to reform the international monetary system and improve global financial governance. Coordination of global macroeconomic policies, development of China's financial markets and internationalization of the renminbi.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F821

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