关键货币境外余额的国际政治经济学——美国的境外美元管理及其对中国的影响

发布时间：2018-01-22 01:32

本文关键词： 境外美元国际货币政策金融危机　出处：《世界经济与政治》2012年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：关键货币境外余额是重要的国际经济变量,它不仅会影响关键货币的国际地位和全球金融市场稳定,也关系到境外关键货币持有国的经济稳定和储备资产安全。关键货币国通过经济、外交甚至军事手段对境外货币余额的规模、资产配置、地区分布以及持有者结构实施管理,以便实现对外融资、获取经济安全和榨取财富等多重目标。在金融危机背景下,基于经济安全、国际博弈和对外融资的目的,美国大致会阶段性地吸引美元回流并调控其在国外的分布,但美元霸权地位和美国国内的两党政治体制将使其境外美元余额的规模在长期内进一步扩张,因此人民币近期仍面临升值压力,欧洲和新兴市场国家金融动荡将会持续甚至加剧。随着中国国内资产价格的下跌,美元的升值和回流在中期时段内可能会冲击中国宏观经济稳定;如果美国不能控制其财政赤字,中国将长期面临美债和美元违约的巨大风险。中国需要降低宏观脆弱性,加速调整经济发展模式,从根本上摆脱美元陷阱。
[Abstract]:The foreign balance of key currencies is an important international economic variable, which will not only affect the international status of key currencies and the stability of global financial markets. It is also related to the economic stability and reserve asset security of the key currency holders. The key currency countries use economic, diplomatic and even military means to scale the balance of foreign currency and allocate assets. Regional distribution and holder structure are managed in order to achieve multiple objectives of external financing, access to economic security and exploitation of wealth. In the context of the financial crisis, based on economic security. For the purpose of international game and external financing, the United States will attract the return of US dollar and control its distribution abroad. But the hegemonic position of the US dollar and the bipartisan political system in the US will further expand the size of its foreign dollar balance in the long run, so the RMB is still facing the pressure of appreciation in the near future. Financial turmoil in Europe and emerging market countries will continue or even intensify. As China's domestic asset prices fall, the appreciation and return of the US dollar may impact China's macroeconomic stability in the medium term. If the United States fails to control its fiscal deficit, China will face a long-term risk of defaulting on U.S. debt and the dollar. China needs to reduce its macro vulnerability, accelerate the adjustment of its economic development model, and fundamentally free itself from the dollar trap.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学交通运输管理学院;中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【基金】：2010年教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“国际货币权力与中国应对美元霸权策略研究”(项目编号:10YJAGJW002)的阶段性成果长策智库“全球宏观经济政策项目(GMEP)”资助
【分类号】：F827.12;F124
【正文快照】： 近年来,随着美国国际收支逆差的持续,境外美元(foreign dollar balances)的规模持续扩大,目前已经积累到约5.7万亿美元之巨。①如此庞大规模的境外美元,掌握在哪些国家或私人机构手中,被配置为何种资产,外国政府和私人机构在何时、以何种方式、多大力度重新配置其美元资产等

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