最优金融结构：理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 06:37

本文关键词： 最优金融结构实证分析金融结构偏离最优银行部门金融市场　出处：《辽宁大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融结构是金融体系构成要素的组成、相互关系及其量的比例,主要包括金融机构(产业)结构、金融市场结构、金融资产结构和金融价格结构等组成部分。金融体系在经济增长与发展过程中的作用已经达到普遍共识，然而金融结构与经济发展之间的关系仍处于争议之中，金融结构研究自戈德斯密斯开始已发展了近半个世纪之久，关于这样的研究也是汗牛充栋，从金融结构“两分法”、金融结构无关论、金融服务论、金融法律论、金融功能观、金融结构优化论等，国内外学者从各个视角努力为金融结构与经济发展之间关系增添有力论证。然而还有一些问题仍待解决，例如什么样的金融结构最有利于经济发展？是否存在最优金融结构？金融结构的优化目标是什么？何为金融结构失衡？金融结构失衡程度如何？金融结构失衡对经济与稳定的影响效果如何？这些问题在以往文献中没有明确回答或者研究不够深入，而最优金融结构理论对此类问题可以做出较为准确的回答。林毅夫等人提出的最优金融结构理论则是一套新的理论，是金融结构研究领域新的努力与尝试，最优金融结构理论是对传统金融结构研究的突破、发展与补充，然而最优金融结构研究尚处于初步阶段，理论体系仍不完善，并缺乏大量理论与实证研究。本文则在一个改进的最优金融结构理论框架内，对林毅夫等人发展起来的最优金融结构理论进行新的解释，运用现代经济分析工具，对金融结构相关理论进行了较为系统的归纳，通过建立一个新的最优金融结构理论框架来解释金融结构与经济发展之间的作用机理，构建最优金融结构理论模型，并进行实证分析，试图去回答以往研究中围绕金融结构尚未解决的问题，回答了最优金融结构是否存在的问题，最优金融结构的动态性，金融结构偏离最优的问题，金融结构偏离最优程度如何？金融结构偏离最优对经济发展产生何种影响？并且将最优金融结构理论应用与中国，分析中国金融结构是否偏离实体经济所决定的最优金融结构？如若偏离其偏离程度如何？中国金融结构偏离最优对经济发展的影响效果？如何去避免或降低金融结构偏离最优所产生的负面影响，等等话题。以上这些围绕最优金融结构的话题是本文的研究任务。第二章节最优金融结构理论的理论渊源。主要是对已有的金融结构与经济发展之间的关系、最优金融结构理论的渊源进行梳理。第三章节最优金融结构理论分析，在前文关于最优金融结构理论的理论渊源的梳理基础上，通过对金融结构与经济发展之间关系，构建了最优金融结构的理论体系，该体系主要从最优金融结构理论模型、最优金融结构动态性、最优金融结构偏离、金融结构趋向最优的优化与调整等构成一个可供实证的总体研究思路。第四章节最优金融结构的实证分析，本章节是基于第三章节理论分析的结论的基础上,利用可获得的跨国样本数据进行实证分析,企图找出相应的经验论据来支持研究的理论观点。经过实证检验显示：1.一国在其经济发展过程中存在最优金融结构，金融结构与经济发展之间存在着“倒U”型关系；2.随着各国法律、文化、政治、宗教、经济金融等因素的变化最优金融结构发生动态性移动，决定了每个经济体在一定发展阶段都有各自的最优金融结构。并通过内生增长模型，设计了最优金融结构的估算模型，然后分别选取市场主导型国家美国与银行主导型国家德国最为典型代表国进行分析。第五章节最优金融结构的偏离对金融稳定性的影响。本章节在最优金融结构偏离特征的理论分析基础上，设计金融结构偏离最优程度指标，结合33个国家在1989年-2009年的面板数据进行实证分析，发现金融结构偏离最优程度与金融稳定性之间存在负相关关系，随着金融结构偏离最优程度加大，银行危机与金融危机发生的概率增加，金融稳定性下降，金融风险增加。第六章中国最优金融结构研究。本章节首先运用统计学方法对中国金融结构进行描述性分析，并估算出实体经济发展所需求的中国最优金融结构估计值。在此基础上，构建中国金融结构偏离最优程度与经济发展的关系模型分析金融结构偏离最优给经济发展带来的影响效果，结果发现，随着中国金融结构偏离最优状态的程度加深，中国经济发展水平降低。然后在对最优金融偏离的模型设置中加入外生冲击变量，，将金融监管、经济结构、金融市场化程度、法律制度等纳入到模型中进行实证分析，结果表明有效的金融监管、经济结构的调整、金融市场化程度的深入与法律制度的完善将会减小最优金融结构的偏离所带来的负面影响。第七章是研究结论与政策建议。通过前文对中国金融结构实证分析的基础之上，讨论了中国金融结构存在的问题，针对中国金融结构提出了相应的优化与调整的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The financial structure is composed of elements of the financial system, the proportion relationship and the amount, including financial institutions (industry) structure, financial market structure, financial structure and financial asset price structure part. The role of the financial system in the process of economic growth and development has reached a general consensus, however, the relationship between financial structure and economic the development is still controversial, has been the development of financial structure for nearly half a century since Gedesimi Adams, on such a study is an immense number of books from the financial structure, the "dichotomy", independent financial structure theory, financial services theory, financial legal theory, financial function, financial structure optimization theory, scholars at home and abroad from every perspective to the relationship between financial structure and economic development more powerful argument. But there are still some problems to be solved, such as what kind of financial structure The most conducive to economic development? Whether there is an optimal financial structure? What is the optimal financial structure? What is the financial structure imbalance? How financial structure imbalance? How to influence on the financial structure imbalance and economic stability? There is no definite answer to these problems or lack of in-depth study in the literature, and to such problems can be made a more accurate answer to the optimal financial structure theory. The optimal financial structure theory proposed by Yifu Lin et al is a new theory, is hard and try to research the new financial structure, the optimal financial structure theory is the study of traditional financial structure breakthrough, development and supplement, but the Research of optimal financial structure is still in the initial stage, the theory of the system is still imperfect, and lack of a large number of theoretical and empirical research. In this paper an improved optimal financial structure theory within the framework of Yifu Lin The optimal financial structure theory developed a new explanation, by using modern economic analysis tools, the financial structure theory were systematically summarized, to explain the mechanism between financial structure and economic development through the establishment of a new optimal financial structure, constructing the optimal financial structure theory and empirical model. The analysis, trying to answer the financial structure problems in the previous studies, the answer to the problems of the existence of the optimal financial structure, dynamic optimal financial structure, the optimal problem of deviation of the financial structure, the optimal degree of how the financial structure deviates from the optimal? What kind of impact on the economic development of the financial structure and financial structure will deviate from the optimal? The theory and application of Chinese analysis, optimal financial structure decides whether or not to deviate from the real economy Chinese financial structure? If the deviation from the What is the degree of China's financial structure deviating from the optimal effect on economic development? How to avoid or reduce the negative effects of financial structure deviating from the best?
The second chapter is the theoretical origin of the optimal financial structure theory. It is mainly about the relationship between the existing financial structure and economic development, and the origin of the optimal financial structure theory.
The third chapter analyses the optimal financial structure theory, basing on combing theories about origin theory of optimal financial structure, based on the relationship between financial structure and economic development, constructing the theoretical system of optimal financial structure, the system mainly from the optimal financial structure theory model, dynamic optimal financial structure, deviate from the optimal financial structure. The optimal financial structure tends to optimize and adjust the form for a general empirical research.
The fourth chapter empirical analysis of optimal financial structure, this chapter is based on the analysis of the theory of the conclusion of the third chapter, using an empirical analysis of multinational sample data can be obtained, theory attempts to find the corresponding empirical evidence to support the research. Through empirical test shows: 1. of the existence of the optimal financial structure in the process of economic development in an inverted "U" relationship between financial structure and economic development; 2. countries with legal, cultural, political, religious, optimal financial structure changes in the economic and financial factors such as the occurrence of dynamic movement, the decision of each economy have their own optimal financial structure in a certain stage of development. And through endogenous growth the design model, the estimation model of optimal financial structure, and then select the market oriented countries the United States and bank oriented countries in Germany is the most typical representative of China Analysis.
From the fifth chapter the influence on financial stability of optimal financial structure. The analysis of deviation characteristics in this chapter, the optimal financial structure based on the theory of optimal financial structure design, degree of deviation, with 33 countries in the empirical analysis of panel data during 1989 -2009, there is a negative correlation between the financial structure and the degree of deviation from the optimal financial with the development of financial stability, increase the degree of deviation from the optimal structure, increase the probability of banking crisis and the financial crisis, the financial stability decreases, financial risks have increased.
The sixth chapter China optimal financial structure research. This chapter first use of statistical methods of descriptive analysis of China financial structure, and to estimate the optimal financial structure China development needs of the real economy estimates. On this basis, the construction effect, the relationship model Chinese deviate from the optimal degree of financial structure and economic development analysis of the financial structure deviates from the optimal to bring the result of economic development, with the Chinese financial structure deviates from the optimal state of deepening Chinese economic development level decreased. Then on adding variables to exogenous shocks model optimal financial deviation, financial supervision, economic structure, financial liberalization, legal system into the model for empirical analysis results that effective financial regulation, the adjustment of economic structure, and further the legal system of financial marketization will improve the reduction The negative effects of the deviation of the small optimal financial structure.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations. Based on the empirical analysis of China's financial structure, this paper discusses the problems of China's financial structure, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for China's financial structure optimization and adjustment.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832

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