人民币流通地区资本流动的动态差异性分析——基于私人消费与净产出关系的实证检验

发布时间：2018-02-26 20:11

本文关键词： 资本流动程度人民币流通人民币国际化　出处：《财贸经济》2012年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：国际资本流动的差异性影响了人民币的跨境使用,在人民币单边升值预期弱化的背景下,其差异性反映出不同的资金回流冲击风险。本文引入永久收入模型,构建基于私人消费和净产出关系的资本流动程度测度框架,并采用Swamy’s随机系数模型和状态向量空间方法动态地分析其差异性。结果表明,本文选取的12个人民币流通国家或地区国际资本流动的时序和地区间差异较大,人民币国际化推进策略和回流冲击的审慎监管政策应充分考虑其差异性。
[Abstract]:The difference of international capital flow affects the cross-border use of RMB. Under the background of weakening the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB, the difference reflects different risk of capital backflow. This paper introduces the permanent income model. A framework for measuring the degree of capital flow based on the relationship between private consumption and net output is constructed, and the differences are dynamically analyzed by using the Swamy's stochastic coefficient model and the state vector space method. The time series and regional differences of the international capital flows of 12 RMB circulating countries or regions selected in this paper are quite different, so the differences between them should be fully considered in the strategy of promoting RMB internationalization and the prudential supervision policy of backflow impact.
【作者单位】：上海对外贸易学院国际经贸学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(批准号:11YJC790286) 上海对外贸易学院085项目(批准号:Z08511022)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F224;F822.2

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