人民币汇率变动对我国经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 20:32

本文关键词： 实际有效汇率马歇尔—勒纳条件 “J”曲线效应协整检验　出处：《贵州财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2005年开始，我国汇率就呈现出稳中有升的趋势，人民币兑美元汇率中间价从最早的“8元时代”到“7元时代”再到现在的“6元时代”，人民币不断升值，并按现在的趋势看，还有进一步升值的空间。近年来，随着我国市场化程度的不断加深，我国涉外经济在整个国民生产总值中所占的比例不断升高，可以说，涉外经济的整体发展状况对我国经济起着重要作用。其中作为桥梁联系国内市场与国外市场的汇率，它在经济发展过程中的作用就不言而喻。因此，进行汇率变动对我国经济增长所造成的影响的研究就十分有必要，，对我们了解汇率作用于经济的原理以及在面对人民币升值趋势下应采取的对策都具有积极意义。本文的主要研究可分为两大部分。第一大部分是理论分析和现状研究。理论分析主要介绍汇率的基础概念以及当前国际上的主流观点，现状研究部分则是在结合我国1994年以来汇率变化基础上分别和物价水平、进出口贸易以及外商直接投资进行分析，从趋势图上发现它们之间存在着相关关系，同时为下面的实证分析进行变量选择；第二大部分主要是实证分析和对策建议。实证分析部分通过构建模型对出口、进口和外商直接投资进行分别分析，在求出汇率变动对三者影响程度的基础上运用宏观经济学理论算出汇率变动对整个国民经济的具体影响程度。在对策建议方面，从汇率制度、抑制物价水平、合理引进外商直接投资和调整进出口贸易结构方面提出了建议，同时提出了一切决策目的是为经济服务的原则。本文的数据来源于国际清算银行和中国统计年鉴，选择从2000—2013年季度时间序列作为实证分析的基础，主要变量有实际有效汇率、出口额、进口额、外商直接投资、国民生产总值以及国外收入，数据统一以2010年为基期，在剔除了通货膨胀影响的前提下采用协整分析等计量统计学方法进行数据处理。实证结果表明：汇率变动与出口、进口和外商直接投资存在着长期稳定关系。汇率上升，导致出口商品在国际市场上竞争力的下降，失去优势从而市场份额减少，不利于出口；导致本币升值，本币需求增加从而进口增加；会导致外商直接投资成本的增加，减少外商预期利润从而投资力度下降。并且根据实证分析得出的弹性系数可以看到汇率变动对出口的影响程度最大，外商直接投资程度居中，进口方程受到的影响最小。最后在基于各变量影响程度的基础上求出汇率变动对与我国经济增长之间的关系：人民币汇率的上升会导致我国经济增长率的下降。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, China's exchange rate has shown a steady upward trend. From the earliest "8 yuan era" to the "7 yuan era" to the present "6 yuan era", the RMB continues to appreciate, and according to the current trend, There is room for further appreciation. In recent years, with the deepening of China's marketization, the proportion of China's foreign-related economy in the total gross national product (GNP) has been increasing. It can be said that, The overall development of the foreign-related economy plays an important role in China's economy. As a bridge linking the exchange rate between the domestic market and the foreign market, its role in the process of economic development is self-evident. It is necessary to study the effect of exchange rate change on China's economic growth. It is of positive significance for us to understand the principle of exchange rate acting on the economy and the countermeasures to be taken in the face of the trend of RMB appreciation. The main research of this paper can be divided into two parts. The first part is theoretical analysis and current situation research. Theoretical analysis mainly introduces the basic concept of exchange rate and the current international mainstream view. On the basis of the change of exchange rate since 1994, the present situation is analyzed separately with price level, import and export trade and foreign direct investment, and it is found that there is a correlation between them on the trend chart. At the same time, the following empirical analysis variables are selected; the second part is mainly empirical analysis and countermeasures. The empirical analysis part through the construction of models to export, imports and foreign direct investment analysis, respectively. On the basis of finding out the influence degree of exchange rate change on the three factors, the author calculates the concrete influence degree of exchange rate change on the whole national economy by using macroeconomics theory. In the aspect of countermeasure and suggestion, from exchange rate system to restrain price level, This paper puts forward some suggestions on how to introduce foreign direct investment and adjust the structure of import and export trade, and puts forward the principle that all decision-making purposes are to serve the economy. The data in this paper are from the Bank for International Settlements and the Statistical Yearbook of China. Selected from 2000-2013 quarterly time series as the basis of empirical analysis, the main variables are the real effective exchange rate, exports, imports, foreign direct investment, gross national product and foreign income. Cointegration analysis and other econometric methods are used to process the data without the influence of inflation. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and export, import and foreign direct investment. The rise of exchange rate leads to the decline of the competitiveness of export commodities in the international market, the loss of advantage and the decrease of market share. It is not conducive to exports; it will lead to the appreciation of the local currency, the increase in demand for the local currency and the increase in imports; it will lead to an increase in the cost of foreign direct investment, According to empirical analysis, we can see that exchange rate changes have the greatest impact on exports, and the degree of foreign direct investment is in the middle. The import equation is the least affected. Finally, the relationship between the exchange rate change and China's economic growth is obtained on the basis of the degree of influence of various variables: the rise of RMB exchange rate will lead to the decline of China's economic growth rate.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.1

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